AS the November 11 governorship election draws near in Bayelsa, Kogi and Imo states, there are fresh fears across the states that the exercise might be marred by the spate of insecurity that has been spreading round the three states in the past weeks. There is also the fear that flooding might pose a problem, thereby fuelling voter apathy, especially in Bayelsa and Kogi states.

Bayelsa

In Bayelsa state, fear is rising that the 2023 flood and violence may disrupt the elections.

The fears are not misplaced because of the peculiar terrain of Bayelsa State and the volatile nature of its politics.

In 2022, Bayelsa State was one of the worst hit states with 70 per cent of the state covered with water while property worth millions, including road infrastructure, was destroyed.

Checks indicated that with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), political parties and candidates already in election mood with electioneering in full swing, the recent warning by the National Emergency Management Agency( NEMA) has created palpable fears in the people.

Investigations by Saturday Sun revealed that most coastal communities that suffer from perennial flooding have since stopped all burial ceremonies because of the water level. Also, the water level has risen in the last 96 hours, Fuelling fears that flood could be upon the people. The situation has not been helped with the heavy rain that fell on Thursday October 12 which many feared could trigger the 2023 flooding.

However findings in communities that are prone to flooding like Adagbabiri in Sagbama Local Government Area, Odi in Kolokuma/Opokuma Local Government Area, Otuoke in Ogbia Local Government Area, Tombia, Polaku and Obogoro communities in Yenagoa Local Government Area, and Akenfa, Amarata, Akenfa and Agudama in YenagoaMetropolis showed that the water level has not given rise to any cause for alarm. The Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC), Mr Obo Effanga has downplayed the effect of flooding on the conduct of the election.

According to him INEC, has been conducting elections in Bayelsa for years and is aware of the peculiar terrain for it to know how it can plan to hold elections.

He noted that due to the constitutional provisions for the conduct of the elections, INEC is ready to overcome the challenges of flooding to conduct elections in Bayelsa just like it conducted elections during the COVID-19 period.

An environmentalist, Mr Morris Alagoa has expressed confidence that the 2023 flood from recent reports would not be as terrible as that of 2022.

“Even with the said release of water from Lagdo Dam, I am still convinced beyond reasonable doubt that Bayelsa State won’t be so badly affected at the end of the day. We are yet to hear that Lokoja in Kogi State has been overwhelmed by the flood. We are yet to hear that Onitsha has been inundated by the flood. It takes more than a month for Bayelsa to get the negative impacts of flooding after it hits LokoJa hard. It takes over two weeks before Bayelsa State would feel the negative impacts, after it has caused havoc in Onitsha, Anambra State.

“From the above and, considering the fact that the flood would be receding anytime from the middle of this month, October, a late arrival of Lagdo Dam water would only flush into the Atlantic Ocean without overflowing river banks in Bayelsa state.’’

While the people are hopeful that the flood would not have a devastating effect on the conduct of the elections, the same could not be said of the threat of violence.

INEC had recently expressed deep concern over the escalating security concerns in Bayelsa State. The alarm by INEC is not an exaggeration. The stakes are very high for the Bayelsa State governorship election especially between the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressive Congress (APC).

The two parties are not strangers in political contests and the fear is that the forthcoming election could be a repeat of the 2019 contest which left several people, including police officers, dead a few days to the election. Already, Governor Douye Diri, who is also the candidate of the PDP, and his main challenger, Timipre Sylva of the APC have been locked in bitter recriminations over threat of violence in Nembe and Ogbia.

Diri had accused Sylva of enthroning violence in Opu- Nembe, Nembe Local Government Area with a plan to make it spread to Brass and Ogbia all in Bayelsa East Senatorial District as a test run for what the opposition party is plotting for the entire state.

Recently Diri had accused Sylva of planning to import thugs into Ayama- Ogbia being a strong-hold of the PDP to cause mayhem. He has therefore directed the security agencies to Keep its eyes on Sylva and his party. Sylva on the other hand has fingered Diri in the turmoil and reign of terror that ravaged Opu- Nembe because he sees the place as the stronghold of the APC and wants to destabilise it by all means.

Just recently the Concerned People of Nembe called on the Federal Government to nip in the bud alleged plans by PDP to import thugs into Nembe under the guise of campaign because of its fixation to subjugate the people. In August, the Inspector- General of Police, Kayode Egbetokun had to deploy a special team of Mobile Policemen and SWAT to Opu- Nembe following attacks on people believed to have sympathy for the APC. Some suspects were later arrested with arms and ammunition.

As it stands, the security agencies would need to allay the fears of the electorate over violence during the governorship election.

Kogi

In less than one month to the Kogi governorship election, there are spates of violence being reported across the state especially between APC the ruling party and the Social Democratic party. Sometimes in August, a notorious Political thug aka Okwo, who was reputed to be close to some powerful individuals in the state, was killed. Okwo was in 2011 sentenced to jail for a murder-related case but was said to Have been released along with some hardened criminals on the promise that they would work for some political groups in the state. The man was accused of involvement in many violent incidents in the state during the 2019 governorship election, including the murder of some political figures.

The man was captured recently and killed.

Also, within the last two months, the SDP campaign office in Lokoja was razed down by people suspected to be opposition thugs. The candidate, Murtala Ajaka and the APC leaders have accused each other of assassination attempts.

There was a clash between the governor’s convoy and that of the SDP candidate in Kotokarfi in July which led to serious violence with sporadic gunshots. Ajaka claimed that his vehicle was targeted and that he barely managed to escape assassination. However, the state government claimed he was the one who broke into the governor’s convoy. Early this month, another clash between the APC and SDP supporters occurred in the Kotonkarfi which led to the death of an APC lady supporter. The SDP claimed the APC thugs came to the venue of their rally and shot sporadically destroying their chairs and canopies.

Last Saturday, five thugs allegedly belonging to one of the political parties were arrested by a military task force in Ayingba where they were said to have caused mayhem and killing two persons. All this has spread fear that the coming election might be marred by insecurity.

Imo

Less than 30 days to the 11 November Imo governorship polls, there may be voters apathy as most eligible voters might not want to risk their skins to come to cast their ballots for their preferred candidate as a result of the spate of violence across the state. The violence is more noticeable in parts of Orlu and Okigwe senatorial zones which have continued to witnessed unmitigated violent attacks by gunmen masquerading as members of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB)and its affiliates, the Eastern Security Network ( ESN).

In the last few weeks, the state has witnessed more indiscriminate attacks by gunmen. Even both security agencies and politicians have not been spared. Recently, eight members of a joint security taskforce on patrol in Umualumaku and Orieagu axis in Ehime Mbano council area were attacked and killed by gunmen, who proceeded to set their corpses ablaze.

During the Presidential and National Assembly polls held in February 25, Orsu Local Government Area recorded less that 6,000 Votes, as most residents have already fled their communities, a consequence of the unrelenting activities of gunmen who kill at will. And those who had remained in their communities, especially the elderly, could not vote for fear of becoming victims of the “unknown gunmen.”

Also, those who had earlier registered to vote in the 2023 polls could not do so as they abandoned their permanent voters cards with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). The situation has not changed.

Similarly, it would require heavy deployment of security agents to assure the residents of Ejemekuru, Awa, Agwa, Izombe, Orsu Obodo communities in Oguta Local Government Area because of the continuous violence in the axis, as most police infrastructure in those areas have been destroyed by gunmen.

These areas have remained a vortex of violence as rival gunmen have continued to make these communities unsafe. There is the continuous burning of the houses of perceived supporters of the current administration and their opponents. Two weeks ago, gunmen killed three police officers in Ejemekuru community which resulted in residents fleeing the community following reprisals by the operatives of Imo State Police Command. The precarious situation in Awo- Omama in Oru East Local Government Area, Atta in Njaba, parts of Orlu Local Government Area may affect the forthcoming Imo governorship polls as most residents have relocated to Owerri, the state capital. The story is not different in Okigwe senatorial zone, as parts of Onuimo, Obowo, Okigwe Local Government Area in the Okigwe zone have been taken over by gunmen. It would be recall that the State Houses of Assembly election was marred by violence in these areas forcing most eligible voters to flee.

However, most of the Local Government Areas in Owerri Senatorial Zone are relatively calm after the 2021 prison break which had caused an upsurge of violence especially in the Ogbaku, Nwaoriebu communities in the Mbaitoli Local Government area and parts of Orji, Amakaohia, Irete communities in Owerri North Local Government Area of the state. (Saturday Sun)