The Presidential and National Assembly elections held in penultimate Saturday threw up several electoral upsets in different parts of the country. In Lagos, Abuja, and other parts of the country where the performance of the Labour Party (LP) was high, a number of notable candidates of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and others lost their election or re-election bids.

In the same manner, the All Progressives Congress (APC) buoyed up by the strong electoral value of its standard bearer and President-elect, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, scored high marks by grabbing some senatorial and House of Representatives seats.

With just one week left to the governorship and state assembly elections, Sunday Sun reports on the red flags that may determine the outcome of elections at the sub-national level.

LAGOS

Just like in the penultimate Saturday’s Presidential and National Assembly elections, the coming governorship and state assembly polls in Lagos State will be the most competitive election in recent times.

Hitherto, the gubernatorial contest had always been a straight fight between the ruling APC and the main opposition PDP.

But this time around, the political space has been expanded to include the Labour Party as one of the front liners. It, therefore, promises to be an interesting slugfest largely among the incumbent governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, who is the candidate of the APC and the standard bearers of the PDP and LP – Abdul-Azeez Adeniran and Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour respectively.

To be sure, 16 political parties have indicated interest to partake in the state governorship election, while 394 candidates will be jostling for 40 state constituencies, according to the INEC.

As usual, the political atmosphere is already becoming increasingly charged ahead of the polls. Presumably, three basic fundamental factors will determine where the pendulum swings. One is the Obi factor. In the penultimateSaturday’s presidential poll, the Obi-Datti Movement was the major driving force behind the large turnout of voters witnessed during the poll.

But for next Saturday election, Obi is not on the ballot. And given the contestation that has continued to trail the outcome of the presidential election, there is the likelihood that many of the enthusiastic followers of Obi, who were dissatisfied with the result may not be willing to come out to vote, which invariably may lead to voter apathy. In the event that there is voter apathy, the incumbent governor will be the ultimate beneficiary of this election.

In the last election, religion and ethnicity played a major role in determining the pattern of voting and the actual winners of the elections. The same sentiment is likely to repeat itself again on Saturday. The only dilemma for the religious bigots who were preaching religion in their places of worship against the Muslim/Muslim ticket of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu is that both the candidate of the APC and that of the Labour Party are Christians. So, they will have to make a choice between the deep blue sea and the devil depending on the individual’s perception of the candidates.

Lagos as a cosmopolitan state has a fair representation of all ethnic groups in the state across all walks of life. The aggregate of people’s sentiments about who is fit for the job will determine the ultimate winner of the election. And this is where the performance of the incumbent governor will be interrogated. If the performance of the governor is perceived to be satisfactory for the benefit of the greatest number of people by the majority, his re-election will have an easy sail. If otherwise, his second-term ambition kisses the dust.

Above all, the power of incumbency cannot be wished away. Generally, owing to the fact that people tend to patronise the party in power for money and positions, a sitting governor is in better stead to mobilize more voters than those outside the government circle. This election cannot be an exception.

OGUN

Come March 11, one week from today, three parties will lock horns in contest for the Ogun State governorship seat.

While the APC is fielding incumbent Governor Dapo Abiodun, the PDP and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) will have Oladipupo Adebutu and Biyi Otegbeye, as their candidates respectively.

The ruling party in the state won the three senatorial and nine House of Representatives seats during the February 25 polls.

Before the election, members of the opposition had believed that APC could be beaten giving the impact of the severe scarcity of currency notes caused by the naira redesign policy, which unleashed untoward hardship on the people.

To them, the policy, which was greeted with protests in the state, coupled with the scarcity of fuel, were enough to put the ruling party in a bad light before Nigerians.

The campaigns of the opposition had focused on how the APC had failed the country, as they wooed the electorate with promises to turn things around, if they were given the mandate.

And with the immediate past governor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun, publicly throwing his weight behind Otegbeye of the ADC, many people believe that political clout of Amosun would catapult Otegbeye and the ADC.

But with the result of the presidential election favouring the APC, chances of the incumbent governor getting re-elected are now brighter.

Out of the three senatorial districts in the state, Ogun Central is the stronghold of Seantor Amosun. None of the ADC candidates won a national assembly seat.

For the PDP, expectations of springing surprises at the polls, especially in Ogun East where Oladipupo Adebutu is stronger, hit the rocks as he failed to at least deliver his Ikenne Local Government Area to his party.

Though no two elections are the same, it will be a Herculean task to unseat the ruling party on Saturday. The key reasons are that the incumbent governor has the former governor of the state and Senator-elect for Ogun East, Gbenga Daniel and the Senator-elect for Ogun West, Solomon Olamilekan Adeola, to secure mass votes in the two senatorial districts. Ado-Odo/Otal Local Government Area, which has a population density and high number of voters, is under the grip of Senator Adeola of the APC. Apart from that, the current Ogun State Deputy governor, Noimot-Salako Oyedele also hails from the local government area.

Pundits in the state say that the battleground for the March 11 poll will be the Ogun Central Senatorial District, where Seantor Amosun has large followership. Though he is still in the APC, he had declared to campaign and work for the ADC.

Amosun, who hinged his support for Otegbeye on the failure of his successor to continue with his administration’s master plan, vowed that he would work assiduously to ensure victory for the ADC and its governorship candidate.

The incumbent governor, however, has been showcasing his administration’s infrastructural and economic development of the state at his campaigns, asking the electorate to re-elect him.

With APC at the national level, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo’s factor and the incumbency factor, the governorship may swing in favour of the APC in Ogun.

OSUN

Osun State will not hold governorship election in this year. However, election to the House of Assembly will be shaped by two factors owing to the results of the National Assembly elections, where the PDP won the three senatorial and nine federal constituency seats, which showed its wide acceptance in the state.

Working from this premise, there is strong likelihood that the party will consolidate on its success, to concretely show that the people of the state voted for the party in the July 2022 governorship and last week’s general elections.

Again, the acceptability of the various candidates in their constituencies will determine the outcome for the contestants in the election. This factor has gained weight because people are now voting for candidates based on popularity and acceptance by the people of his/her community.

The victory of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu may boost the morale of the APC coupled with the judgment of the election tribunal that sacked Governor Ademola Adeleke.

ENUGU

Enugu State for the first time since 1998 might witness a departure from the usual dominance of the governorship polls by the ruling PDP.

Since the beginning of the present democratic dispensation, the PDP has been ruling the state and equally occupied all the legislative seats from federal to local government.

But the Labour Party’s Obidient wave that swept across the country, especially the Southeast and in particular Enugu State, seems will be a major factor in Saturday’s governorship election in the state. There also seems to be a general view that the state needs a change of party having been in one all the years without exceptional performance.

In terms of the personalities in the race, the four major parties, All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), All Progressives Congress (APC), Labour Party (LP) and PDP presented electable candidates, hence making the race a tough one. Hence the exceptional individual quality of the candidates will play serious role as many believe that the time of party affiliation should give way for credibility.

However, political pundits are of the opinion that Enugu North Senatorial District and non-indigenes of the state would decide who becomes the next governor of the state, particularly as Enugu North has the largest number of electorate and non-indigenes who are not bound by any zonal or clannish cleavages. All the four major candidates, Frank Nweke Jr, Uche Nnaji, Chijioke Edeoga and Peter Mbah are from Enugu East Senatorial District.

Also, the cold war between Nsukka and Nkanu will definitely play out and depending on how it is managed, it has the potentials of determining the governorship election on Saturday.

The Church is another factor that might determine the election because in the last February 25 election, one of the parties, blamed their failure on the church and called some priests with unprintable words and names, accusing them of having directed their congregations to vote against them. So, the church, a beautiful bride now, is expected to play a major role also in the election in Enugu State and it now depends on which of the candidates that would make better use it.

Also of importance in shaping the election is the performance of the incumbent government, which many say would make or mar the chances of their candidate in the election.

More importantly, the youths will shape the election as they have the largest number of voters and are anxious about whom and the political party that can deliver to them their needs as they seem also to be tired of rhetoric.

Head or tail, Enugu State governorship election will not be an easy one, but will definitely be interesting.

CROSS RIVER

The governorship race between the two leading candidates: Senator Bassey Otu of the APC from Cross River South and Prof. Sandy Onor of the PDP from Cross River Central.

A key factor is that the state’s 1.5 million registered voters are split along ethnic lines – Efiks and Atams. Senator Otu is from the Efik tribe in the South Senatorial District while Prof. Sandy Onor is from the Ejagham stock, which cuts across 10 of 18 local government areas that make up the state. Besides, the Ejaghams are also part of the Atam tribe, which is an added advantage for the PDP candidate.

Another factor that would play a key role in who wins the election is zoning. While the APC and its candidate, Sen. Otu, are agitating for power shift to the South with the back-to-South mantra, PDP and its candidate, Prof. Onor, are insisting on merit and ability to deliver quality leadership to the people.

For APC, they argue that for equity, justice and fairness as well as in line with the old tradition of zoning, it is the turn of the South. But PDP has kicked against this, arguing that since 1999, every zone had contested the governorship race.

The party further argued that every zone had produced governor and, therefore, it should be left open for the South and the Central zones to test their strengths.

Moreover, the outcome of the Presidential and National Assembly elections would influence the governorship election in the state.

Ahead of the NASS poll, PDP was riding high on opinion poll, but the pundits got it wrong as APC swept seven of the 11 NASS seats leaving three for PDP and one for LP.

Hence, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu’s victory has added impetus to APC, and emboldened the state chapter to go into the governorship election with confidence while leaving the opposition downcast and as an underdog.

Analysts have argued that the governorship race is a two-horse race between APC and PDP. So, whosoever that would win needs to dialogue with the Obidients as they hold the ace considering their impressive outing recorded in the presidential election in the state.

So, the PDP and APC need to re-strategise, to come with another winning formula considering the fact that the Obidient Movement in Labour Party doesn’t have a strong candidate.

Akwa Ibom

Akwa Ibom State has never been affected by the spiral effect of the presidential and National Assembly elections when it comes to deciding the governorship in the past. So, the March 11, governorship election, may not be any different.

Other things being equal, PDP would still maintain its traditional lead, which it has tenaciously held on to since 1999. This means that the PDP candidate, Pastor Umo Eno would sail through, especially as he has the unshakable support of Governor Emmanuel Udom, and with all the official structures of the government in the 31 local government areas being that of the PDP.Akwa Ibom is the only state in South-south and Southeast beside Bayelsa that secured victory for the PDP.

Another factor that would work in PDP’s favour is the near absence of opposition in the governorship race. The YPP candidate, Senator Bassey Albert Akpan, who has gained a lot of popularity since defecting from PDP to YPP, will have a lot of difficulty achieving his desire of becoming the governor of the state since at the moment he is encumbered by a 42-year-jail term slammed on him by Justice Agatha Okeke of the Federal High Court, Uyo, for corruption. Lawyers say his winning the governorship election would be a mere academic exercise, unless the Court of Appeal sets aside the judgment before the election.

The APC, which could has given PDP a good fight is still in a quandary and confusion over who the party’s candidate is between Senator Ita Enang and Mr Akan Udofia. Both are in court to justify their claims.

Though on paper it appears that PDP will have a smooth sail, there are some other factors that may knock the wind off its sail. One of these is the Akpabio factor.