The March 15, 2023 governorship polls are exactly 124 days away. Candidates across the 28 states where the polls will be held have been locked in campaigns to get the nod of voters.

There will be no governorship polls in Imo, Anambra, Kogi, Bayelsa, Edo, Ekiti, Ondo and Osun on March 15, next year. Due to court decisions the governors of the eight states emerged through off cycle polls and so were not sworn in on May 29, 2019.

Among the 28 states where the seasonal governorship elections will be held, opinion polls in five commissioned by Atedo Peterside-led ANAP Foundation and conducted by NOI Polls, show that Governors Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos and Abdulrahman Abdulrasaq of Kwara, as of now, stand a good chance of being re-elected for second term. Both governors are re-contesting on the platform of the All Progressives Congress, APC.

Abia, Rivers and Kano are the other three states polled. The results show Alex Otti of the Labour Party, LP, to be ahead in Abia. The poll predicted that in Rivers, Siminalayi Fubara of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, has an advantage, while in Kano, the race is between Abba Kabir Yusuf of the New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP, and Nasiru Yusuf Gawuna of the APC.

How we arrived at our conclusions –Atedo Peterside

Speaking on Channels Television on how the opinion poll was conducted, Mr Atedo Peterside said the polls are based on mobile telephone.

“We selected the states that are of interest, the whole Idea of the states we selected were the ones that could give us an indication of what may be happening on the ground in various parts of Nigeria,” he said.

Battle for Abia

“Abia in the South-East is an interesting result because it’s a PDP state, but our opinion polls show that the person that has an early lead as at the time of our polls end October is Dr. Alex Otti of the Labour Party. He has an early lead, it is not inconclusive, 20 percent of the voters say they will vote for him.

“The next candidate in PDP has 9%, the next candidate from APGA, has 4%, and APC 3%, and the rest are lower. “Interestingly, undecided voters are high as 34%, not surprising because the elections are four months away. Be that as it may, it’s a bit of a surprise that the Labour Party has come from nowhere to take a significant lead in the poll in what has been historically a PDP state. So, if you are to sum up the result, the only conclusion you can make is that Alex Otti of the Labour Party has an early lead, but it is not inconclusive.

“We just look at the numbers report them the way they are. There must be all kinds of local issues at play that would have made it possible for Alex Otti. Let us also bear it in mind that he ran before. I think all that he has done is that this time he has crossed over into the Labour Party and he is now in the lead. He isn’t new to those in Abia State. So, let us not look at it as if he is an unknown candidate running through the Labour Party perhaps the most surprising thing is PDP with as much as 11% point behind Alex Otti,” he added.

Two horse race in Kano

Atedo continued that “Interestingly, the Presidential poll in the whole of the North–West, Atiku Abubakar was ahead, he is in PDP but in Kano (Governorship), opinion poll for there alone clearly shows Abubakar Yusuf of NNPP in a lead. More importantly, Kano looked like a two horse race, the third candidate is far behind this two. So, in our opinion all the evidence is that it’s a two horse race where Abubakar Yusuf has 29%, which is a good 8% point above the APC candidate, Nassir Yusuf, so it’s a two horse race in Kano between NNPP and APC, but with NNPP in front by a clear 8% point.

“Again we have undecided voters as much as 30%. It’s early days yet and so it’s not yet conclusive. I think the biggest story in Kano is that PDP only recorded 3%…APC is a good second in Kano, but NNPP is a very good first and PDP really is almost out of the race barring a miracle. And every other candidate is below PDP’s 3%.

“We have a breakdown as par the 3 senatorial zones, and in all 3, NNPP is ahead. Only in one case, Kano South, that the margin is small, they have 26%, APC has 25%, but in Kano central, NNPP has 29%, to APC’s 18%. In Kano North, NNPP has 28% to APC’s 21%. In summary, PDP has 3%, ADP has 2% and the rest put together is 3%,” he explained.

Abdulrasaq in good lead in Kwara

“In Kwara, the governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq has a very good chance. He has 30% of the voters saying they will vote for him. The good news is that the second place candidate from PDP, Shuaibu Abdullahi, has 11%. So, that is about 19% gap, then followed by the SDP candidate Hakeem Lawal, who has 3%.

“But again, the undecided voters are as high as 31% but if you are the governor of the 30%, you know that when it gets to 50, the game is over. So, it’s still a very good lead especially since you have a 19 points gap over your closest challenger who is from the PDP.

“Again, the local voice in Kwara will be able to explain, but one thing is sure, the governor is very popular in a particular senatorial zone (Kwara North) far more in Kwara Central and Kwara South. So, it is probably his stronghold; that is the interpretation.

“Interestingly, in both Kwara Central and Kwara South, he still has in one case 16% gap and the other one 17% gap. The governor is doing well in all three zones. So, you cannot say this is the case of a governor who has managed to satisfy only two senatorial zones and is weak in the third. He seems to have gotten a pretty good result in all three zones.

“Again, if he looks at these results, he will be encouraged and be smiling. He is a first term governor of course, we know that in the past we had a few first term governors fall, but if I was a betting man, based on these results, I suspect he will be home and dry. Of course things can change, we have four months away from the elections it is something to remember this time, some people say a week is a long time in politics. it’s better to be in front in a race than behind,” he added.

Kwara YPP rejects poll

Meanwhile, the Young Progressives Party (YPP), in Kwara State has rejected the ANAP poll showing Governor Abdulrasaq to be leading with about 30 per cent alongside 31 per cent undecided voters.

In a statement by the its Publicity Secretary, Oyewole Oladele, the YPP said that its governorship candidate, Alhaji Yakub Gobir, stands the chance of winning next year’s governorship election due to his wide acceptability across the 16 local government areas of the state, despite the outcome of the poll.

The party disagreed with comments that Governor Abdulrasaq has won the hearts of voters in the grassroots through construction of inner street roads and walk ways and provision of healthcare through primary health care centres among others

Fubara leads narrowly in Rivers

In Rivers, with 37 per cent undecided voters, Atedo said: “Our summary says Siminalayi Fubara of PDP has a narrow lead but in a severely fragmented race. He has a lead of only 3 percentage points above the number 2 candidate.

“So, we are talking about he has 14%, Tonye Cole of APC has 11%, Magnus Abe of SDP comes third with 6%, Briggs of Accord party has 4%. Then, we have 2 other parties below with 2% and 3% respectively. So, you have PDP in the lead but the opposition votes are split across APC, SDP, Accord Party and even a bit of the two other parties. That is why I say it is a severely fragmented race and PDP is not dominating it, they are in the lead…

“But there is an interesting thing about Rivers state, by the way, Rivers is my home state. The three senatorial zones, in the Rivers West, APC with 19%, PDP with 11%, but in Rivers East, Fubara is ahead with 17% and in Rivers South, Magnus Abe has the highest votes,” he explained.

Sanwo-Olu leads in Lagos

In Lagos state, Atedo said: “Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu has a lead that might be unassailable, especially as the opposition votes are fragmented. He has two major opponents, PDP and Labour Party and the two of them appear to be splitting the opposition votes …PDP has 8% and Labour Party, 4%. Across the senatorial zones he is in front in all three.

“With his 30% there is a gap of 22%, it is not completely unassailable but the undecided votes are only 30% and then we have those who have decided but refused to disclose who they will vote for. But one interesting difference between what we see here in Lagos is that in the presidential polls we did, Labour Party was coming a very good second in the South-West, but when we come to governorship, it is PDP that is coming second and not a very good second. So, it is most like saying Governor Sanwo-Olu has a stronger lead in Lagos than Asiwaju Bola Tinubu has overall in the South-West over the Labour party.

“So, Sanwi-Olu seems to be almost home and dry and he is enjoying a much wider gap between number one and number two than what you see in the presidency,” he explained. (Vanguard)