Deciding how to go about the economy is, no doubt, an arduous business for Nigeria’s decision makers at this time of ecological abnormals fuelled by climate change. The stakes are high, as whatever path Africa's economies follow will determine if global warming will ever be tamed. On the table are two different options for Nigerian leaders: the age-old fossil fuels route, and the modern sustainable (also called renewable) energy pathway. The choice is absolutely theirs, but a look inward could advice what is better for the country at this crucial moment.

Nigeria, like other West African nations, is believed to be warming faster than the rest of the world, and would likely have a bite of climate change earlier than most other places. This, according to investigations, is not a distant future prediction, as those effects are all over the country already. In the North, for instance, water bodies, including lakes and streams, are drying up. Annually, sand dunes cover arable land, the size of Lagos, forcing the retirement of farmers to the cities, and herders to seek refuge in the country's South. But the South is not left out. Dwellers in the coastal areas are on the run following sea advancement inland, and some other places experience unusual flash floods, leading to the death of hundreds, and loss of properties worth millions of dollars, every year.

Agricultural production is generally under threat all over the country by a new rainfall pattern of either too late onset or pre-term cessation. Dry spells and off-season rains, among other global warming outcomes, contribute to the very high risk now associated with farming in Nigeria. Climate change has also been linked to the waves of unrest in some states, ranging from farmers-herders clashes in the Middle East, to insurgency, which has killed thousands, displaced over two million, and caused damages close to a billion dollars in value.

Amidst all these is a growing fear that Lagos, the country's economic nerve, could be entirely submerged. This was revealed in a 2012 study of the University of Plymouth which predicted disaster for Africa’s largest city at a sea-level rise of between three and nine feet in response to rising temperatures. A warming of that magnitude could also shield rains from Nigeria’s North, while pushing enough water to the South to wash away both soils and crops. Destructive storms and ocean surges are also anticipated, should global warming go on, leaving less to the imagination on what a full-scale climate crisis would look like. The future is, therefore, scary, and it’s not difficult to see clearly the reason Nigeria committed to the Paris Agreement which seeks a good cut in the carbon footprint of every nation in other to prevent a full-scale climate break-down.

A reduction in Nigeria’s carbon emission is, however, a decline in its use of fossil fuels which dominate the country’s economy. Its export, industries, agriculture and transport sector, all thrive on fossil fuels, while over 80 per cent of its electricity come from fossil-fired plants. According to World Poverty Clock, meanwhile, Nigeria is home to world’s largest number of people living in extreme poverty and, of course, poverty alleviation and radical economic growth are the big issues of government at the moment. But the easy-to-tap resources on which such growth depends are the ones changing the climate, and from the other end is a call to leave them in the soil.

Anyone will call this a dilemma, but in order to keep climate change in check, more and more countries are learning to do away with fossil fuels, and from their stories, it is clear that a transition to sustainable energy is neither impossible nor a rocket science. Energy is sustainable when it cannot run out and does not pollute or heat up the planet. Such energies come from the air, sunlight, ocean and everyday plant and animal wastes. Other than its environmental and health benefits, sustainable energy could be the remedy to the age-long power challenge keeping Africa’s most populous nation behind.

Nigeria, according to a 2018 draft report of the World Bank Environment and Social Systems Assessment (ESSA), is unable to provide electricity for about 80 million of its citizens. But power is a vital ingredient of economic growth anywhere, and, as economists put it, a 1per cent rise in its supply leads to 4 per cent growth in an economy. Fortunately, research reveals that Nigeria has enough solar energy resource to close its electricity access gap, and open the window for radical industrialisation and agricultural revolution. There’s also a reasonable biomass reserve for use in the transport, and other sectors of the economy. Nigeria, therefore, has enough renewable energy potential for any country to flourish without heating up the planet.

The energy transition procedure that works for a country, however, depends on its prevailing climatic, ecological and financial realities – no one-size-fits-all approach exists. Nonetheless, should Nigerian leaders decide to go the clean energy way, some basic lessons can be learnt from countries around the world which have already made significant progress. Sweden, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), “is a global leader in building a low-carbon economy.” It already meets half of its citizens’ energy demand from sustainable sources, and is on target of 100% renewable power by 2045. From Sweden's story, one thing is clear: if anything must change to give room for a clean energy switch, it is politics.

Politicians must first walk away from short-termism, i.e., finding short and easy solutions to energy problems or expecting on-the-spot return on energy investment; and believe that Nigeria has much more to benefit from sustainable energy than whatever upfront capital is required to get it running. Nothing good comes easy, after all. It is equally important to set ambitious targets for renewable energy expansion, backed up with legislation and finance. Private fossil investors need to be discouraged through the introduction of carbon tax, and provisions should also be made for financial incentives like subsidies for clean energy companies.

One more lesson from Sweden: Citizens’' mindset matters. For a government to achieve success in a capital intensive project of this kind, which full benefits may require a bit of time, the majority of its citizens must be in support. To make this happen, however, citizens must first be positioned to value and appreciate sustainable energy, through nationwide awareness programmes in partnership with educational institutions, civil society organisations, and other stakeholders.

The future of Nigeria really looks good with sustainable energy than the other options on the table. One, it is the way out of a deleterious climate change. Two, it is a proven path to economic prosperity. Choosing to pay the price, today, will surely place us shoulder-to-shoulder with the woke nations of the world. Flourishing low-carbon economies confirm the words of Arnold Schwarzenegger, that “the future is green energy, sustainability, renewable energy.”

Ayeni Faith Damilola is a freelance journalist and environmental activist.

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