Governor Babatunde Raji Fashola of Lagos State and his predecessor, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the All Progressives Congress (APC) National Leader, appear to be locked in fiercest political battle of their lives over the former’s successor.

Fashola appears to be telling his mentor (Tinubu) that he too has come of age after about eight years in office and is set to challenge him.

Whether Fashola, who has been dispatching political issues to 26 Bourdillon Street, the palace of Asiwaju in Ikoyi for resolution since 2007 will succeed, tomorrow will show after the APC gubernatorial primaries in Lagos. Fashola has since assumption of office placed higher premium on governance than politics.

But a source who spoke under anonymity confirmed to The Guardian yesterday that the taciturn lawyer from Surulere area of Lagos has changed.

“He is now ready for politics of 2015. Fashola may not have been playing politics, but he is deeper now and he understands that only the deep can call to the deep, and so he is even much deeper, though he has not been making noise as others…,” was the way one of Fashola’s advisers described the new spirit in Fashola.

The Guardian was told that Tinubu’s henchmen are not ignorant of the artful devices of Fashola’s men for Alausa 2015 and the genius of Bourdillon too has been planning strategically to demonstrate that he has been the founder and funder of the party. As Tinubu’s close ally said yesterday, “Asiwaju is aware of all the shenanigan and scheming going on in all the camps for the purpose of getting a successor to Fashola…and he is accepting all the challenges.”

Specifically, sources confirmed to The Guardian that Fashola’s men are the powers behind three powerful contenders, namely Hamzat, Sashore and Tokunbo Wahab, who have been labeled as Plans A, B & C. Hamzat is generally believed to be Fashola’s first choice. Then the resourceful governor was told that religion has deeply crept into Lagos politics, a development that was said to have led to manifestation of Akinwumi Ambode, a Christian from Epe, hence the Plan B: Sashore, an accomplished lawyer and former Attorney General of Lagos State. It was learned that the Fashola group has also prepared another dark horse, Tokunbo Wahab, who is generally believed to be a candidate that may be acceptable to Tinubu, after all.

But inquiries revealed that Tinubu has not changed his mind on Ambode. His (Tinubu’s) men are perfecting their strategy for the unexpected ambush his boys that have grown up to be men of means.

What watchers of the polity in the state know is that the battle-line has been drawn between the leader of the APC both in the state and the entire South-West, and a co-leader at the national level, Tinubu and Fashola.

But what the polity watchers do not know, and can only hazard a guess, is the likely consequence(s) of the fight of the tartans on the fortunes of the APC in the state, which could point the way to a national political cataclysm for the party.

The ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has plotted over the years to take hold of Lagos State; and since 1999, the desire has been a pipedream.

But any mis-step by the gladiators in the Lagos APC might hand the PDP that chance of 16 years on a platter.

The bone of contention in the unfolding story is who, between Tinubu and Fashola, has the upper hand in the struggle for the fillet.

Stripped of all ambiguities, each of them wants to anoint the next governor of Lagos State on the platform of the APC.

And with the date of the governorship primaries of the party drawing down to a matter of hours, the intrigues in the “feuding” camps have reached unprecedented level.

Initial permutation for the emergence of the party governor was to choose from a wide field of aspirants spread across the three senatorial districts of the state.

The cry of marginalisation soon cropped up from the Lagos East, which felt alienated from the scheme of things in the state polity.

Afraid of the rival PDP using the marginalisation cry as a campaign tool against it, the APC conceded the slot to Lagos East.

But then, there was another hurdle to cross, as the work of picking the governor was cut out for the party when the agitation for a Christian devotee became cacophonous, to the point of threatening to derail the party, which eventually capitulated.

That was when a dark horse, “totally unknown in the activities of the party in the state,” came on the scene.

Enter Mr. Akinwunmi Ambode, former Accountant General of Lagos State. Besides being a Christian, which fits into the gambit of the moment; he is reputed as one of the strategists behind the jumbo Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) the state government earns monthly.

From a paltry N600 million that the Tinubu administration met in 1999, the revenue moved up to N10 billion on the eve of that government, and ballooned to an average of N27 billion monthly, as the Fashola regime is winding down, thus standing Lagos out as, perhaps, the only state in Nigeria that can withstand the adverse effect of the dwindling revenue returns from the Federation Account.

Indeed, during the then President Olusegun Obasanjo-led administration (1999-2007), Lagos withstood the illegal withholding of the allocations to its local governments on account of its creation of additional 37 councils to the constitutionally recognised 20.

These two possessions — being a Christian and an economic planner, in addition to having worked across the local governments in the state during his service years — recommended Ambode to Tinubu in particular and others who control the levers of power in the state.

Recall the “open endorsement” of the pick by the revered Oba of Lagos, Rilwan Akiolu, at a time people were still asking, “Ambode who” when the name first appeared in the media in connection with the Lagos governorship.

Now, it is no longer who is Ambode, but how to thwart the efforts of the Tinubu camp from presenting and crowning him as the governor of Lagos State in 2015.

Reportedly spearheading this new frontier is Fashola, who has a ‘Plan B’ in the person of Shasore.

Shasore’s resumé, putting in a good word for him to Fashola, is his experience in working with the three arms of government — executive, legislature and judiciary — in the formulation and implementation of policies and programmes of the government.

He is also a strong advocate for conferring on Lagos State a “special status” as the economic nerve centre of the country even when Nigeria is driven by petro-dollar from oil and gas from the Niger Delta (South-South geopolitical zone) of the country.

Tinubu, undoubtedly a political tactician of repute in today’s Nigeria, almost got his fingers burnt in 2007 when he settled on and presented Fashola as the governorship candidate of the defunct Action Congress (AC), which metamorphosed into Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN).

Fashola, Tinubu’s Chief of Staff, was never in the governorship reckoning, at least in the eyes of those party men and women that stood by, and fought with Tinubu in the political battles to win Lagos State in 1999 and retain it in 2003 for the ‘Progressives.’

These individuals, popularly referred to as ‘Tinubu Boys’, had positioned themselves for the governor’s seat before Tinubu launched Fashola.

However, as Chief of Staff, Fashola was part of Tinubu’s inner cycle, and he knew the workings of the government and, more importantly, had the ears of his Oga better than the politicians angling for the position of governor.

Yet, “these politicians would not take this crap,” to quote a source, “and decided on a gang-up, which failed to fly.”

“In the end, many of the aggrieved governorship aspirants returned and begged for forgiveness and compensation with other elective or appointive positions, which they got,” the source said.

“The few, who decided to quit the fold and tried their luck in the field against Tinubu’s candidates, lost out woefully.”

Pundits were surprised in the run-up to the 2011 elections that Fashola had issues with his benefactor, and wanted to carve a niche for himself in the state political arena.

It was at a time his public rating was on the high as a result of the developmental strides his government had made in just a few years.

When the reported acrimony between Tinubu and Fashola got to the zenith, a section of the state allegedly urged the governor to damn the consequences and seek alternative platform for a second term in office.

This was when the story broke that Tinubu had put in motion an impeachment plot, using members of the State House of Assembly.

Although the Assembly denied the alleged moves even as it repeatedly queried some of the actions and expenditures of the Fashola administration, some groups went to court, seeking to sanction the governor over accusation of misappropriation and mismanagement of state funds.

But when the chips were down between Tinubu, a tactical politician and Fashola, a technocrat, who, time without number, had dished politics, and was often quoted as asking people to take their political matters to Tinubu, the latter won the day.

“Fashola practically had to beg Tinubu. Tinubu accepted because the who-is-who in the state, including traditional rulers, were involved in the pleading to temper (political) justice with mercy,” a source said.

“But there was a caveat: Fashola must henceforth be of good behaviour, and should not be heard, talk less of being seen to challenge Tinubu’s political wisdom of the Asiwaju.

“That was how Fashola got the chance of a second term in office, which he will complete in May 2015.”

From the goings-on in the state polity, Fashola “may not have abandoned his desire to stand up as a man, politically, and challenge his godfather in the appointment of his successor in office.”

After all, it was Tinubu, as governor, who determined his successor. “So, why can’t Fashola do the same?” an aide of the governor queried.

The aide affirmed the quarrel over the presentation of a governorship candidate for the Lagos APC, and the claim that Fashola was behind the drafting of Shasore into the fray.

The aide stopped short of admitting that the Fashola camp was responsible for the media blitz, which the Shasore campaign organisation has embarked on in the past week for the aspirant.

“Where do you think Shasore, though a Senior Advocate of Nigeria, got the money, running into tens of millions, to place those adverts in the newspapers?” he said.

But the aspirant has denied such connection to Fashola or any other drumbeater, for that matter, insisting on his qualification for the job of governor based on his experience, capacity and passion to serve the people of Lagos State.

As he told a group of journalists the other day, “I don’t have a political godfather. But in several capacities that I have served in public service in Lagos State, I have reasons to deal with the length and breadth of stakeholders in this state.

“As Commissioner for Justice, I actually belonged to the government; as the Attorney General, I actually belonged to the public, sometimes giving government advice that they don’t want to hear. So, this situation is unique in the sense that I have to deal with several stakeholders.

“I don’t have a godfather who is sponsoring me. I believe that I have all-round acceptability. The disadvantage of having a godfather is that you suddenly lose acceptability across the board.”

On being allegedly persuaded to run, Shasore said: “This is all news to me. I took the decision to participate in this process a while ago and I do remember the story of what you just said in the newspapers.

“There was nothing like anyone trying to convince me. I’m convinced; it’s a strong desire; I feel a strong pool to offer myself; it’s just an offer.

“So, in order to help out, that’s why I’m stepping out this time to take Lagos to the next level.”

If Shasore, coming into the race late, could deny a political benefactor edging him on in the race, Ambode may not succeed in that direction.

On the day he was introduced to the media, as part of the damage control arising from speculations surrounding the governorship; a retinue of Tinubu aides accompanied him, and they made no bones about hiding the hand and heart of the party leader in the governor project.

An all-round financial accountant and management expert in his own right, he had no political experience in its true sense before he was drafted.

The session with the press was a sharing-of-ideas kind of parley: The aspirant giving his bio-data, his reach/connections, and readiness for the office of governor; and the newsmen quizzing him on some alleged grey areas during his career in the Lagos State Government, whether he was from the “right zone” of the state for the governor’s position, if he was an “indigene” of Lagos and his “faith” and what he might do to make him actualise his dream.

In the end, the pressmen got away with the impression that this was another core professional, like incumbent Fashola, who’s not the typical politician.

Still, there was a critical assignment to be done: that of publicly proclaiming Ambode as the “choice” of the stakeholders in the state.

Final showdown

The governorship primaries are through the collegiate system, according to the guidelines issued by the national headquarters of the APC.

The Electoral College comprises 12 principal officers of the Ward Executive Committee from the chairman, vice-chairman, secretary, women leader, youth leader, organising secretary, treasurer, legal adviser, publicity secretary, welfare secretary, auditor and financial secretary.

The delegates shall also include all members of the Local Government Executive Committee from the Local Government Areas in the state; all members of the State Executive Committee; all members of the National Executive Committee from the state; all members of the Board of Trustees and National Caucus from the state; all elected persons from the state and all other statutory delegates to the National Convention.

Members, going by the guidelines, shall vote by secret ballot at the state capital and the winner announced accordingly.

This is simply on paper, but in practice, other aspirants, including that or those coming from the Fashola camp, feel the guidelines are skewed in favour of the Tinubu group.

Meaning the outcome of the primaries is already foretold: Going the way of the National Leader and his protégée, Ambode.

“Unless, of course, handled to the satisfaction of all potential aggrieved aspirants, the ripple effect of such an eventuality cannot be imagined in this season of the PDP plotting to take over Lagos and the entire Southwest,” a source noted last night.

•Adapted from The Guardian. Cartoon of Fashola vs Tinubu also courtesy of the paper.

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