We cannot continue in denial. Our problems are growing faster than we are solving them. We cannot sustain this model much longer. Our country is not meeting the economic, social and cultural needs of the majority of Nigerians. Not because it cannot, but, because we are self-harming. We should begin to act now before it becomes existential.

It was Nigeria’s 59th Independence Anniversary this 1st of October 2019. The President’s Independence Day speech provided some reflections on the founding of our country, our present and our future. Indeed, the life of a country is well beyond any administration. It cuts across generations. Each administration inherits the past and tries to shape the present and influence the future. This is part of a continuing national journey; one in which Nigerians expect improvements. It is important for building confidence and national pride so that Nigerians can sacrifice for something much greater. Prioritizing community and country over self is the future that would endure. Every government has the opportunity and the responsibility, therefore, through their policy priorities and the attitudes and behaviors of their agents to serve the greater good of Nigerians.

Social Investment Programmes

One of the policy priorities of the current administration is Social Intervention. The government has also recently created the Ministry for Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management, and Social Development to further institutionalise its various programs. Nigerians expect under all circumstances (but especially given limited resources), that these programs are investments for the future. This is so that costs are not driven into inefficient processes with little positive Naira-impact. This will require clarity on the “theory of change” and “logic model” for the various programs to guide monitoring, evaluation, and learning. Success would depend on how well the business models for these programmes are integrated into, and deepening local supply chains. A much more rigorous process of programming that shares best practice and ownership with states and local governments is required. This could impact positively on the inter-related challenges of security, inclusive economic growth and development, and the fight against corruption.

Structural reforms

But we require structural reforms in our political economy to enable every Nigerian to find a pathway from birth to achieve their full potential. This has to be through access to quality education, health care and honest efficient work that creates value. Yes, the Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) announced recently that it has encountered hydrocarbon outflow in the Gongola Basin. This may be good news to many for various reasons. To some, it would be another opportunity to share rent. To others, it is the ‘oil politics’ and the seeming equalisation between the north and the south. As our experience in the Niger Delta has shown, it can be problematic if ‘oil rent’ is not considered in the short term as a leverage to build tomorrow’s ‘new economy without oil’.

The evidence and global trends show that we need natural resources, but our future would depend on what we do with them and the value that we create. It is the foundations that we build today that will determine our share of value in the global market place. It is human capital that will put the hands and minds of our huge human assets to produce directly and indirectly through the technological tools we create. It is our share of global value, that would improve the standard of living of most Nigerians. It is what would improve our national security; result in inclusive growth and reduce the cost of social interventions; and minimise all forms of corruption.

But our current political economy continues to distract us from the work of investing in our future. It is ‘all roads lead to Abuja’, the source and distributor of political and economic power in Nigeria – big and inefficient federal government. As Abuja is too far from most Nigerians (yet it keeps and expends most of our resources), and politicians at local, state and federal levels mostly answer to their benefactors in Abuja, we continue to fail to meet the needs of ordinary Nigerians with impunity. Access to political power at the centre continues to determine wealth extraction at the expense of wealth creation. Nigeria’s huge political industry has only been sustained to date on oil rent. Embarrassingly our national budgets are based on oil price benchmarks. This speaks sadly to all that is wrong with our economy. We create little value, we have little fiscal space and corruption distorts policy spaces. As our largely ‘dependent’ population continues to grow, our social, political and economic problems would worsen if we do not take the right actions now.

Even with good intentions, it is difficult for a president, governor, minister, legislator and other Nigerians in positions of decision-making, to transform Nigerian under our current structure and laws. There are just too many constraints and unnecessary controls unsuitable for our large multi-ethnic population, which we copied from countries that have since moved on. These barriers to creativity and innovation build stress in our economy. They are frustrating and force us to compete on the lowest-common-denominator. They have contributed significantly to creating a survivalist environment in Nigeria. It is no wonder that our institutions are weak, our markets are not free but captured by the most connected and the level of corruption is so high.

So our political economy and the laws that enable it are in conflict with what we need and want our country needs to become a mixed economy that is thriving for all, on the right level of regulation, one that is all about, “we the people” in our decisions and talents. It is “we the people”, that connects the meaning of being a republic to strong independent Nigerians contributing significantly to the success of their local economy and society, and making Nigeria a much better country. This is what independence is about. It is about our land but it is more about the freedom of our people to decide. Part of that decision is the role of government in our lives and the determination of the laws that govern us. We cannot claim independence if we only succeeded in replacing one set of masters and lords by another.

As Professor Charles Soludo said recently, there is a “link between law, constitution, institution, judiciary, and the economic transformation”. Our current constitution can hardly be said to be by, “we the people”. It needs to change to provide the foundation for a dynamic and competitive economy. A constitution, according to Professor Soludo in which the control of the economy by the federal government is reduced, and that creates a “competitive federation” where federating units can optimally utilize their natural resources and human assets for production.

It is no longer enough and sustainable to share rent from the sale of oil for consumption and corruption. As noted recently by the Emir of Kano, Mohammadu Sanusi (II), our “huge population is currently a liability”. It is in the context of the growing gaps in the demand for goods and services relative to supplies. As our population grows, so the need and demand for goods and services increases. This should really not be a problem if we could produce locally, or if we could afford to buy from other countries (to a lesser extent) to meet local demand albeit other risks. Over many years, we failed to invest in human capital; the investment that would have been transformative to both the quality and size of our population. We have become the victims of our policy choices.

There is a link between rent for consumption mentality and the detraction from creating a system and an environment that invests in people and puts talents into creativity, innovation, and markets. It is our political structure and constitution that sets the tone: creates a culture, values, and ambition. These, in turn, create an environment in which people are enabled and empowered to accomplish great things from humble beginnings. So, whereas immigration remains contentious in the United States (US), it realises the value of people and their hidden talents. The US welcomes immigrants (including Nigerians) on humanitarian grounds. In the poetic words of Emma Lazarus inscribed on the Statue of Liberty, the US declares, "Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, The wretched refuse of your teeming shore. Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me, I lift my lamp beside the golden door”. Because its laws and systems have created a stimulating and enabling environment, the US gives hope and inspires the poor, tired and wretched to become leading scientists, innovators and wealth creators. This is the contrast.

Minor fixes

Our country is like a big building project supported by a foundation that can no longer bear its weight. As subsidence has set in, some parts are caving in and some walls are cracking. We have continued to repair but we are now at an inflection point where minor fixes are not working. It is time for fundamental changes. The social, economic and political problems are not waiting. While the new ministry of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management, and Social Development is very important at this time and maybe helpful, the challenges are overwhelming. Minor devolution and modification of the National Assembly that does not vest power in the people would fail to unleash the full potentials of Nigerians and transform Nigeria. We should not continue to have a mould into which we all compete on the lowest common denominator. We will not develop.

Global geopolitics

China has risen. It is an economic and military power. It is a credible competitor on the world stage. The world is increasingly multipolar. Indeed, China has benefitted from the economic transition in the West. It is also the fact that the business model of technological innovations requires access to expanding and extending markets. Goods and services are consumed by people and businesses. That is what markets represent – people and businesses that can afford innovation. With over 1.4 billion people, China is a big market that contributes significantly to the bottom-line of big global corporations and movements in financial markets.

But the offshoring of manufacturing to China by the West was strategic. First, it was to reduce the cost of manufacturing without impacting quality, so as to increase profits. The Chinese had built an environment that could enable Western corporations to achieve their strategic objectives. Apart from relatively low labour cost and high technical skills in China, a culture of devotion to duty, hard-work, trust, loyalty, discipline and respect for authority were important factors. But the Chinese are also very patriotic to their long term national ambition, and China has a relatively stable political system.

The result of the partnership has been that hundreds of millions of Chinese have been lifted out of poverty, while big global corporations are able to compete, grow and declare huge profits and tax to shareholders and governments. Millions of Chinese are now able to afford and demand the products and services that result from innovation. Chinese innovators are also integrated into global value and supply chains.

The world has changed and is changing. While there are many lessons that Nigeria can learn from China, we are so different from China to completely adopt its model. Some of the lessons from China may include: stable political system that works for its large and diverse population, given its culture and longer term ambition; investment in human capital (its people, its most important growth driver for production and consumption); organisation of its population and markets into secure data-points. Evidence supports the right policy choices, clarity and significant levels of certainty. It also increases visibility and minimises corruption. This supports the Chinese business model based on research and development.

China’s export economy has accumulated forex reserves of over US$3 trillion by the most recent data.

Jobs and investments in China are tied to value and supply chains for import (China depends on the import of raw and semi-finished materials for manufacturing inputs) and export markets. This can be a vulnerable position in trade wars. If China cannot export as much, it may also not import as much. This has implications on the global economy.

Patriotism comes first before individual interests and ambition. Some strategic questions for Nigeria ahead of structural reforms:

Should we continue to import for consumption, given our large population?

The answers to this question are about affordability, imports-related risks and the need for creating manufacturing jobs that are denominated in Naira for our large population. Nigeria also requires to develop and retain some core technological capabilities.

Should we pursue strictly an export-led economy?

The answers to this question should consider what would happen to jobs in Nigeria and our economy if transaction-led foreign policy based on global trade finds us on the wrong side of global power struggles in an increasingly multipolar world.

Should we pursue an economic model in which we focus on deepening our local value and supply chains for jobs and economic growth?

This would mean improving the “ease of doing business”, local innovation, standards, etc. Foreign investments and exports would be considered pluses and not so critical to our national economy.

It is possible to be strategic to our oil and gas import earnings, by growing a strong local economy. After all Nigeria is full of talented people and it is resource-rich. It also has an opportunity to lead in the Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) through exports and trade settlement instrument.

Nigeria could be caught in global geopolitics, as well as far-right and far-left wing issues in the future. How are we planning for these likely scenarios?

The Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management and Social Development

Until we address structural issues, we should continue to improve the performance of ministers and the ministries, departments and agencies that they oversee. The ‘why’ and ‘what’ this new ministry and the agencies that it oversees are required to deliver on its humanitarian and disaster management mission seem clear to me, given existing agencies and ongoing activities. It is the ‘how’, the ministry will deliver on this mission differently to achieve its primary objectives as efficiently and transparently and ‘how’ performance would be monitored and evaluated for continuous improvement that require public communication and scrutiny.

The Northeast is currently the epicenter for the humanitarian interventions of global attention and concern, but, there are ongoing country-wide humanitarian and disaster management needs. While the business case and models for intervention may differ across the country, we can share and transfer evidence and best practices, interfacing with Nigerians that are impacted, local and development agencies. Below is a guest blog for the Council on Foreign Relations that contains some ideas for the Northeast Development Commission (NEDC). We should learn what not to do from the experience with the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC). The NEDC should not duplicate what states in the northeast should be doing. It should not be another source of contracts to sustain loyalty and patronage networks.

https://www.cfr.org/blog/nigeria-unveils-north-east-development-commission

Social Development

There is the social development responsibility of the new ministry. This is new. From a long term perspective to our democracy, it is its social development responsibilities that can be most important and transformative. It is about investing in every Nigerian and removing the barriers that limit us from birth to old age. It is about putting people and the environment at the core of our economic development. This would require cross-government working and collaboration with the private and social sector. It would involve coordinating country-wide development programs and strengthening community systems.

Social development would require translating all government policies, projects, and programs into development actions and getting Nigerians involved in the planning, designing, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of performance. This would be data-intensive. It will reveal early patterns and trends, and prevent emergencies and disasters by acting further afield to improve the lived-experiences (across key development domains) of people by local government, cities, and states. The experiences of Nigerians can be rated on a regular basis. A robust social development business model can attract partners for deliberate investments. We can build a big society that is inclusive; a country with personality that cares, and in which our weakest links are so strong and where no Nigerian is left behind. Social development can transform the ways and means through which we reduce crime, poverty, inequality, and corruption, in the short to long term.

Below is a list of priorities for social development that the new ministry may consider in the next 6 months. These priorities would lay the foundation for future success:

Legislation – work with the National Assembly for an Act of parliament establishing Social Investment or Charity Commission. This is key to organising and regulating the social sector in liaison with states, local governments, development partners and private companies that are making social investments.

Inaugurate an interactive website that provides information, education, training, support and regular updates on the work of the ministry.

Establish a central coordination centre for all development partners working in social development, for maximum impact.

Establish a platform for the use of data to inform ‘integrated policy-making’ for development, by joining-up government.

Establish a “clearing house”, ‘Under One Roof’ for development impact assessment of government policies and build a database of best practice.

Establish 24/7 online citizens’ observatory for ownership.

Promote ‘community champions’ awards to outstanding Nigerians, and to charitable and commercial organisations at local, state and federal levels.

This article has been contributed towards promoting a better Nigeria for all. Our country is down already. We should not be easily satisfied with quick-wins and short-term political gains for election cycles that push the cans down the road. This approach will cause us long-term pains later. We should be far-sighted.

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