As Nigerians and indeed the world eagerly await the February 16, 2019 presidential election with about 70 political parties participating, many people have come to believe that the actual contest is between the incumbent President, Major-General Muhammadu Buhari of the APC and the Presidential Candidate of PDP, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar.

The outcome of a recent nationwide survey we carried out in the 36 states and the FCT on the prospects of the Presidential Candidates reveals that, the Presidential Candidate of PDP, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar will emerge winner of the presidential election, if the election were to hold today.

The survey further reveals that although Muhammadu Buhari is likely to garner more votes in the North, particularly in the Northwest, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar will emerge the overall winner of the presidential election.

The survey results also indicate that national aggregate margin of the Winning Votes for Alhaji Atiku Abubakar is projected to be just about 6.32% of the total votes cast.

Barring any major upsets and/or manipulations, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar is expected to win the presidential election with a margin of at least 2,971,133 votes. This obviously looks too close for comfort!

There are 17 essential registered voters hubs identified across the country out of which, the top five in particular are critical to the eventual outcome of the presidential election. So, how the political parties and their candidates are able to harvest the votes in these identified places shall to a large extent influence the overall results of the forthcoming presidential election.

The aforementioned therefore, clearly underscores the need for greater work in critical catchment areas, vigilance and to ensure that the votes cast during the elections really count.

Stated below is how the candidates stand in the Geopolitical Zones and States including the FCT.

[A/B = close to call with Atiku leading;

B/A = close to call with Buhari leading.]

NORTH:

1. North Central ......... Atiku

2. North East .............. A/B

3. North West ............. Buhari

SOUTH:

1. South South ............ Atiku

2. South East................ Atiku

3. South West............... B/A

The present rating of the candidates in the 36 states and the FCT is as follows:

1. NORTH CENTRAL [6 states and FCT]:

Benue - Atiku

Kogi - A/B

Kwara - Atiku

Nasarawa - A/B

Niger - Atiku

Plateau - Atiku

FCT - B/A

2. NORTH EAST [6 states]:

Adamawa - Atiku

Bauchi - Buhari

Borno - Buhari

Gombe - Atiku

Taraba - Atiku

Yobe - Buhari

3. NORTH WEST [7 States]:

Jigawa - Atiku

Kaduna - Buhari

Kano - B/A

Katsina - Buhari

Kebbi - Buhari

Sokoto - Atiku

Zamfara - Atiku

4. SOUTH SOUTH [6 states]:

Akwa-Ibom - Atiku

Bayelsa - Atiku

Cross River - Atiku

Delta - Atiku

Edo - B/A

Rivers - Atiku

5. SOUTH EAST [5 States]:

Abia - Atiku

Anambra - Atiku

Ebonyi - Atiku

Enugu - Atiku

Imo - Atiku

6. SOUTH WEST [6 states]:

Ekiti - B/A

Lagos - Buhari

Ogun - Atiku

Ondo - Atiku

Osun - A/B

Oyo - Buhari

It is however instructive to note that the survey under reference was carried out exclusively for the presidential election only.

•Echefuna ’Rotimi ONYEBEADI [DBA;PhDs; etc] writes from Abuja.

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