“In war, you can be killed only once. In politics, many times.”
— Winston Churchill (1874-1965)

That Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, the national chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), is facing a rebellion is an understatement; a revolt captures more appropriately the situation he has found himself, and for which he must take blame, considering that he squandered the tremendous goodwill that saw him emerge in June as the national chairman. But Oshiomhole is on a familiar terrain, which he seems to enjoy. As General Secretary of the Textile Workers Union, the workers had revolted against his leadership and, in the process, burnt down part of the textile workers secretariat. Oshiomhole was lucky to have escaped being lynched.

Oshiomhole, like his good friend, Sen Shehu Sani, has a great knack for sufficiently angering and pushing people to the wall. Both men under late Sani Abacha, more or less, forced Abacha to administer them the standard

Abacha treatment. While Sani was hauled before the Special Military Tribunal for managing an illegal organisation, Oshiomhole was stopped by Senator Uba Ahmed, the then Minister of Labour, from becoming the president of the Nigerian Labour (NLC). Like the Siamese twins that they are, both men are facing huge political problems that are largely of their own making. For instance, the poetry-writing Senator Sani, has been suspended indefinitely by the Kaduna State chapter of the APC and faces a bleak political future, while Oshiomhole seems to have his hands full, with threats of a vote of no confidence on his leadership.

It's obvious that in the APC today, Oshiomhole, who was recently elected with wide acclaim, can count his friends on the tips of his fingers, considering the reaction from about 26 states to some issues threatening to tear the party apart: especially the issue of direct or indirect primaries for the selection of candidates for the various offices for the 2019 general elections. The only APC states that are safe with the embattled Adams are Osun and Lagos, which are under the firm grip of the warlord, Bola Ahmed Tinubu. This is largely due to Oshiomhole’s lack of tact and understanding that managing a political party is different from managing a mass-movement, such as the NLC, where the issues are largely that of bread and butter.

That Oshiomhole faces real threat is not in doubt. If there was any doubt about this, the Speaker of Adamawa State House of Assembly, Kabiru Mijinyawa, has abundantly made it clear that Oshiomhole is facing an internal uprising.

“We are not afraid of anybody. We are telling you (SGF Mustapha Boss) with a strong voice, to tell him (Oshiomhole) to keep off from Adamawa State; if not, we will deal with him. We are ready to fight,” the Speaker had openly declared before an expanded meeting of APC stakeholders.

The issues that led to the outburst by the Speaker are, indeed, weighty and deserve attention. The issues go beyond direct or indirect primaries. It's fundamentally about scheming for post-2019.

The indirect or direct primaries problems facing the APC have been portrayed in some quarters as a war between the good guys – that Oshiomhole and Tinubu represent – and the bad guys represented by all those who oppose direct primaries. The reality is that while it makes sense to widen political participation by throwing open the process to the entire members of the party, the reality is that direct primaries is going to be a logistical nightmare; not just for the APC, but the security agencies and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Of the lot, the security agencies that are already over-stretched due to several crisis points around the country would be further taxed. Same with INEC which, by law, is expected to send its personnel to the entire 774 local government to monitor the primaries. This will further balloon the budget of the electoral umpire.

The other big problem is the lack of authentic membership register and the open allegations against the national body that has "doctored" the registers of some states to facilitate rigging at source. The Adamawa State Speaker, for instance, has alleged that about 2 million fake members have been added to sway advantage in favour of an unnamed opponent of Governor Jibirilla Bindow, whom some forces are determined to defeat, and only direct primary will provide that kind of leeway for such acts.

The impression that Oshiomhole is acting in the greater interest of the APC and is keen to widen participation has obviously not convinced a vast majority of his party members. And this, obviously, explains the cobra vehemence with which the resisting party members have fought back. The problem is that Oshiomhole has tragically lost the trust and confidence of his party members. They see him as acting the script of Asiwaju Tinubu, who has jeopardised his presidential ambitions by some actions being attributed to him. What Tinubu has refused to come to terms with is the fact that Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo has better chances than him, if the presidency is zoned to the South-West.

Adams has woefully failed to convince his party members that direct primary is not an agenda targeted at anyone. But the biggest challenge facing him is that of morality: having profited from a consensus arrangement that saw him emerge in June as the national chairman, can he now kick against indirect primaries? Were Oshiomhole principled, he shouldn't have sought the endorsement of critical stakeholders to defeat the incumbent chairman John Oyegun. He should have opted for direct primaries, which he suddenly wants to foist on the party. That would have made him principled and sincere.

Franklin Delano Roosevelt, the 32^nd Presidential of the United States of America, must have had Oshiomhole in mind when he averred: “A radical is a man with both feet firmly planted in the air.” Adams Oshiomhole has had both feet in the air since he got this job. His first spat was with Labour Minister Dr Chris Ngige, whom he accused without facts of refusing to inaugurate the boards of agencies under his ministry, especially the Nigeria Social Insurance Trust Fund (NSITF); which his comrade-at-arms Frank Kokori, one-time general secretary of the powerful National Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Employees (NUPENG) has been penciled down to head. He savagely accused his twin-brother-in-height Ngige of appropriating the powers of the board of the NSITF in the award of contracts, hence his deliberate refusal to inaugurate the board of the agency, which happened to be untrue in every material fact. If only the comrade had bothered to inquire to seek the truth from Ngige, he would have found out that an administrative panel is investigating the money-spinning agency over the "disappearance" of over N50 billion, of which N5 billion was reportedly stolen in one day, without vouchers.

If Oshiomhole, who since his assumption of office (coming in from the cold), has displayed reckless disrespect for facts and has shown himself to be a dictator - not a team-player - survives the brewing tsunami, then he needs to come down from his high-horse and rebuild trust, which is essential to lead not just APC, but any party. Oshiomhole, portraying himself as an action man as president of the NLC was okay: because he needed to convince the workers that he can get better wages for them. But now the times are different! He must learn to build consensus among the various tendencies and idiosyncrasies. Luckily, the excitement of his new job has started to wear off and, hopefully, Nigerians won't hear him compare himself to the president.

Because he has unwittingly created the impression that he is an undertaker, with a mandate to murder the APC – as Bamanga Tukur, who contributed largely to the problems of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), before he was eventually eased off – he should expect fights on almost every issue, as those opposed to him attempt to check his excesses. The indications are that the issue of direct or indirect primary is a warning sign – a "rattle snake" strategy – for him to keep away from other issues, such as automatic ticket, that he has been toying with.

The APC, the PDP, and all the other parties, should between now and 2021 leverage on technology to have an authentic membership register that will make it easy for its members to vote from the comfort of their homes. I totally agree that every member must count, but again only when such members are financially up to date. The party should ultimately be self-funding. Oshiomhole hasn't explained how he intends to fund the logistics for the direct primaries, and this makes it suspect. If he insists that the states must fund the direct primaries, then, he should provide the resources.

•Emmanuel Ado is a Kaduna-based journalist. He can be reached via mayad497@yahoo.com

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