This day was bound to come: As the day of reckoning approaches, in Nigeria’s 2019 presidential elections, pitting two new game-changers against three members of the status quo, and one technocrat.

The field has already begun to narrow in the 2019 presidential elections. If the results of this independent polling conducted across Nigeria in late May and early June, 2018, are something to go by, then the field has already narrowed. “The results of this survey are accurate at the 95 per cent confidence level, plus or minus 3 percentage points.”

Earlier in 2018, there were a myriad of sometimes noisy candidates, who first appeared in the first six months of the year, kicking up dust across Nigeria. Now, the field is narrowing to six candidates, who appear to be holding up to electoral scrutiny, some in more formidable ways than others.

The new candidates include Okey Samuel Mbonu, and Fela Durotoye. The status quo candidates are Muhammadu Buhari, Atiku Abubakar, and Donald Duke; and the technocrat is Kingsley Moghalu. The respondents in the poll were adult Nigerians aged between 25 and 60. And they were spread across major cities in both North and South. The questions were preceded by presenting each candidate’s pedigree. After which questions ranged - from respondents’ views - on security, to the economy, to inter-ethnic strife, to corruption; to how they connect with each candidate and, finally, to who can steer Nigeria in a new 21^st Century direction of prosperity.

The results show a surprising trend, especially, from the so-called youth population; which shows that Nigeria may be inching towards a greater tolerance for competence, rather than the former factors of voting patterns along regional divides, in what appears to now be “ancient Nigeria”. The polls show Okey Samuel Mbonu narrowly edging out Donald Duke, followed by Atiku Abubakar, then Kingsley Moghalu, then Fela Durotoye, with Mohammadu Buhari trailing the other candidates.

The surprising result of this poll shows that 2019 will certainly be the year for a major game-changer. Though all the aspirants are basically qualified for this race, the surprise was that this match-up was won by a relatively new-comer, Okey Samuel Mbonu; thus, showing that Nigerians’ exasperation with the status quo politicians may be here to stay. 2019 will be an interesting year to watch in Nigeria.

•Charles Adeyinka writes from Abuja and can be reached via charles.em@gmx.com

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