Austria is going to the polls on Sunday in parliamentary elections.

The vote could see a young conservative star beat the far right at its own game with a hard line on refugees and pledging to prevent a repeat of Europe’s migration crisis.

The ballot is, however, widely expected to result in a coalition government featuring Austria’s far-right Freedom Party (FPO), which is predicted to win up to 26 percent of the vote.

The election will be watched closely across the European Union, as the bloc seeks stability in the wake of the UK’s Brexit vote last year and a recent far-right surge in September’s German elections.

Why does this election matter?

Austria’s election has arrived almost a year earlier than expected, following a breakdown of the country’s grand coalition government in May.

The Social Democratic Party (SPO) and the conservative People’s Party (OVP) agreed on early elections with all other parliamentary parties after months of inertia caused by policy disputes and internal wrangling in the OVP.

Sebastian Kurz, the OVP’s leader since May 14 – two days after early elections were announced, has galvanised the party’s electoral prospects by promising to revive Austria’s political system, which is geared towards SPO and OVP coalition government.

The parties have governed Austria together for 44 of the last 72 years following the creation of a national unity government in 1945, a decade before Austria gained full independence from Germany.

Kurz, who is only 31, has built his popularity by adopting many of the FPO’s mantras, making this an election defined by issues raised by the far right, such as stricter immigration and the role of Islam in Austrian society.

The FPO were polling in first place among Austrian voters during much of the past year.

“Austria is one of the best off countries in Europe, but people want change anyway,” Christoph Prantner, a senior editor of Austria’s Der Standard newspaper opinion pages, told Al Jazeera.

“People are sick and tired of the grand coalition government, and the FPO put their finger on issues people cared about during this election,” he said.

Who is expected to win?

Austria’s OVP, led by Kurz, is the clear favourite to receive the most votes on October 15. The party is projected to win up to 33 percent of the vote, according to opinion polls.

Christian Kern’s left-leaning SPO are set to compete with Austria’s far-right Freedom Party (FPO) for second place, with both predicted to win around 25 percent of the vote.

With no party expected to win a clear majority, the most likely outcome appears to be a coalition government led by the OVP with the support of the FPO.

Such an outcome would place the FPO, under the leadership of Heinz-Christian Strache, in government for the first time in more than a decade.

Their last period at the helm of Austrian politics, spanning from 2000-2007, prompted other members of the European Union to impose sanctions in an attempt to ostracise the country.

There will be no repeat of that action from the bloc should the FPO win its way back into government, Prantner said.

“People aren’t afraid of sanctions any more. It was an exceptional situation then, (but) now we have a completely different political environment, not only in Austria but in almost all European countries, there is a big right-wing presence in politics,” he told Al Jazeera.

“We have moved to a new normality when it comes to these kinds of issues.”

How has the far right managed to gain popularity?

Unlike other far-right movements in Europe, the FPO have been on the political scene in Austria for a number of decades.

Cas Mudde, a political scientist at the University of Georgia, told Al Jazeera: “The FPO has been around for 60 years, it’s a well-established third party.”

“So if people aren’t happy with Austria’s grand coalition the natural decision, assuming they’re on the right of the political spectrum, is to vote for the FPO party.”

Despite the break-up of Austria’s grand coalition government earlier this year, the FPO appears to have declined in popularity from a year ago, when they were comfortably leading in opinion polls.

However, they have had a substantial effect on this election, even before voting takes place.

They have shifted the OVP, predicted to lead Austria’s next government, significantly to the right said Anton Pelinka, a professor of nationalism studies at the Central European University.

“The OVP is usually seen as a centre-right party, but it has taken over some of the arguments and issues from the FPO and presented them in a more moderate way,” he told Al Jazeera.

“The style is different but the substance is not.”

Exiting the European Union, however, remains off the agenda for the FPO and OVP according to Pelinka despite the apparent rise in support a far-right approach characterised by anti-immigration and nationalistic rhetoric.

“There is no possibility that Austria will leave the EU. Not even the FPO would ask for that,” he told Al Jazeera.

“But Austria may move within the EU towards the positions adopted by Poland and Hungary on a more restrictive immigration policy, and oppose further deepening of the EU.”

Around 15 percent of Austria’s 8.7 million citizens were born outside of the country, according to Eurostat. Almost 10 percent, or 765,000, of those originate from outside the EU bloc.

•Excerpted from an Aljazeera report.

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