The worsening insecurity and economic hardship in Nigeria could provide the opposition with a potent weapon against President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 general elections, Head of the Directorate of Media and Communications, Adewole Adebayo-Bugaje Presidential Campaign, Comrade Mark Adebayo, has said.

Adebayo said rising kidnappings, banditry and other forms of violence could discourage voters, disrupt campaigns and deepen public dissatisfaction with the government ahead of the elections.

Speaking in an exclusive interview with Vanguard in Abuja, he blamed the worsening security situation on what he described as uncoordinated counter-terrorism strategies, alleged military corruption and the administration’s disconnect from communities affected by violence.

“The political implications of Nigeria’s worsening security situation ahead of the 2027 general elections are profound, primarily threatening President Bola Tinubu’s reelection bid and undermining state legitimacy,” Adebayo said.

He said insecurity could particularly suppress turnout in badly affected areas, including parts of the North-West, while restricting campaign movements and compromising electoral infrastructure.

“Widespread insecurity, particularly mass abductions and regional banditry, risks driving massive voter apathy, suppressing turnout in highly affected zones like the North-West, and triggering critical regional voter realignments,” he said.

Adebayo also criticised the administration’s approach to tackling insecurity, alleging that its centralised security structure had remained slow and overstretched.

“The Tinubu administration is faltering due to uncoordinated counter-terrorism strategies, alleged military corruption, and a perceived disconnect from grassroots realities,” he said.

He said the crisis could become a major campaign issue for opposition parties because of its impact on agriculture, food prices and livelihoods.

“For the opposition, the security crisis provides a powerful campaign weapon to dismantle the ruling All Progressives Congress narrative of progressive governance,” Adebayo said.

He, however, said opposition parties would still have to do more to convert public discontent into electoral gains in 2027.

“With an aggressive campaign methodology by the leading opposition candidates, insecurity is one area plus the terrible state of the economy that can assist the opposition to unseat the Tinubu government because it is very unpopular due to its massive failures on security and the economy. But the opposition must work harder to achieve that threshold,” he said. (Vanguard)

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