The opening of the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) candidate nomination portal has abruptly ended months of calculated political anxiety ahead of the 2027 general elections. What was once managed behind closed doors through zoning talks, consensus lists, and internal reconciliation has spilled into open confrontation.

For months, political parties successfully contained the internal jostling for tickets. The activation of the portal has removed that cover. With nomination forms now live and statutory timelines fixed, ambition can no longer be deferred.

Aspirants who won primaries at the ward, local government and state levels now allege betrayal, claiming their names were surreptitiously replaced at state and national secretariats. Faced with a choice between submission, litigation, or outright rebellion, their grievances have left a party system that looks orderly on paper but remains highly volatile at the grassroots.

The cost of the swaps

The discontent is no longer private. Across the All Progressives Congress (APC) and opposition structures, internal peace is under severe threat. The grievance is less about losing and more about the subversion of process: aspirants paid for forms, mobilised delegates, and built campaign structures, only to be told that “higher powers” had decided otherwise.

For many, the portal is proof that the rules were changed after the game had already begun. The anger is sharpest where incumbency or godfather influence is most visible, signalling to the grassroots that loyalty to the political establishment supersedes loyalty to the electorate.

This tactical manoeuvring carries immediate political costs. It fractures party cohesion just as general election preparations intensify, allowing opponents to harvest protest votes. By turning the nomination portal into a theatre of disputes, parties are also creating legal vulnerabilities for their favoured candidates. Furthermore, it shifts campaign energy from policy and strategy to managing defections, legal threats, and vendettas.

If these arbitrary swaps are not resolved before INEC’s final deadline, the 2027 cycle will open not with manifestos, but with courtroom battles and fractured platforms.

APC’s loudest dissents

Because INEC issued portal access codes exclusively to federally recognised national chairmen and secretaries, the APC National Secretariat allegedly utilised its administrative leverage to replace several direct primary winners with anointed consensus candidates. This decision has triggered an existential political battle rather than mere administrative friction.

The party executed its most sweeping changes to the 2027 National Assembly list after the National Working Committee (NWC) reviewed recommendations from the Primary Election Appeal Committee. The revised list, transmitted to INEC, was described as the party’s final position on the affected constituencies. Across nine states, the APC replaced seven senatorial and 19 House of Representatives aspirants who had originally won the May primaries.

The Benue swaps

Benue State recorded the heaviest losses. Former Governor Gabriel Suswam, who reportedly won the APC primary for Benue North-East, had his victory nullified and replaced by the incumbent, Senator Emmanuel Memga Udende. In Benue North-West, retired Customs officer Benjamin T. Aber lost his hard-earned ticket to incumbent Senator Titus Tartenger Zam.

Party sources indicate that Suswam was sacrificed to placate the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Senator George amid an on-going power struggle with Governor Hyacinth Alia.

Elsewhere, the party restored several serving senators who had initially lost their primaries. In Kogi West, Senator Sunday Karimi replaced Aro Samuel Bamidele. In Abia South, Prince Paul Ikonne took over from Edinburgh Uchenna Erondu. Shuaibu Isa Lau replaced Mohammed Kabir Bello in Taraba North, while Adeniyi Adegbonmire substituted Taiwo Fasoranti in Ondo Central, and Olajide Ipinsagba displaced Gbenga Elegbeleye in Ondo North.

Benue also led the House of Representatives alterations, with sweeping substitutions across the Makurdi/Guma, Vandeikya/Konshisha, Kwande/Ushongo, Buruku, and Gwer East/Gwer West federal constituencies.

Meanwhile, Ondo State recorded six swaps, while Niger and Kwara registered two each. Taraba, Kaduna, Abia, and Ebonyi recorded one substitution each. Notable Ondo changes included Donald Ojogo replacing Akingboye Leke in Ilaje/Ese-Odo, and Festus Olarewaju replacing Rasaq Obe in Idanre.

While the APC attributes these changes to the Appeal Committee’s report, approved by the NWC in line with the Electoral Act 2022, INEC has issued a stern warning: it reserves the right to reject candidates whose names do not match the reports of its official primary monitoring teams, setting the stage for a direct clash with the ruling party.

Kogi: Betrayal claims and bitter fights

In Kogi State, internal dissent remains volatile. While there was little controversy over the nine House of Representatives seats—where all of former Governor Yahaya Bello’s preferred candidates won—the rancour centred entirely on the three senatorial races. Incumbent Senator Jibrin Isah Echocho suffered a heavy defeat to the government-backed Joseph Erico. Analysts note the result exposed Echocho’s weakened local support after he reportedly fell out with the state leadership by refusing to step down. Echocho had previously boasted that his name was on a “presidency list” of 42 senators guaranteed an automatic return.

After polling only two votes in his ward, Echocho alleged widespread irregularities, claiming no officials or materials were present. While maintaining his loyalty to Governor Usman Ododo, he alleged that the governor moved against him over rumours of a future gubernatorial bid.

“The battle line has been drawn. I will now contest for the governorship against Governor Ododo,” Echocho declared.

In Kogi Central, former Governor Yahaya Bello was declared the winner, but his challenger, Chief Momoh Yusuf Obaro (APC UK Secretary), rejected the result. In a petition to the NWC, Obaro alleged that the results were doctored and that Bello was never cleared by the screening committee. Obaro claimed his agents recorded 44,270 votes compared to Bello’s 20,092, and urged the NWC to nullify the outcome to avoid compromising the primary’s legality.

In Kogi West, the state’s preferred candidate, Samuel Bamidele Aro, stepped down hours before the poll. At an emergency stakeholders’ meeting, Governor Ododo directed members to vote for incumbent Senator Sunday Karimi, citing “a call from the presidency” to retain him. Despite the friction, Bello and Erico remain on the APC’s submitted list.

Ondo in turmoil

Ondo State has been thrown into political turmoil following changes affecting eight National Assembly slots. The substitutions have triggered street protests, threats of litigation, and fresh questions about internal democracy.

In Akure (Ondo Central), supporters of Taiwo Fasoranti marched to the APC secretariat with placards reading, “Fasoranti won, let his mandate stand,” accusing the NWC of imposing candidates. In Owo/Ikare (Ondo North), backers of Gbenga Elegbeleye blocked the Owo-Ikare road for hours, alleging the swap was executed without consulting local stakeholders. Meanwhile, in Igbokoda (Ilaje/Ese-Odo) and Idanre, youths and party faithful staged demonstrations protesting the sudden replacement of Akingboye Leke and Rasaq Obe.

Protest leaders maintain that the process, rather than the outcome, is the problem. Some groups have vowed to head to court, while others are weighing a protest vote against the party in 2027 if the list stands. While defection talk has surfaced, most aspirants admit that switching parties this close to the election remains a risky gamble.

Mirroring recent unrest in Ondo State, aggrieved APC members in Benue State have launched widespread, peaceful protests against alleged candidate name-swapping. In the Kwande/Ushongo Federal Constituency, demonstrators took to the streets of Lessel to demand that party leadership honour the May 16 primary election results. The unrest sparked following reports that nomination forms were issued to incumbent lawmaker Rep. Terseer Ugbor, rather than the declared primary winner, Prof. Kohol Iornem. Warning that candidate imposition would fracture party unity and damage general election prospects, protesters were joined by the civil society group “We the People of Nigeria Initiative,” which accused influential party figures of manipulating primaries across the state to favor handpicked loyalists over grassroots choices.

In contrast, defenders of the substitutions maintain that the party leadership acted well within its constitutional powers. They argue that these adjustments and ongoing consultations are necessary strategic moves to safeguard the APC’s broader interests ahead of the general elections.

While the principle of party supremacy remains a core tenet of the APC, these widespread protests expose deep internal discontent, signaling that grassroots loyalists are refusing to accept top-down candidate substitutions quietly.

Kaduna: Calm acceptance

In sharp contrast to the volatility in the Middle Belt and the Southwest, affected aspirants in Kaduna State have taken the swaps with measured composure.

Hon. Samaila Abdu Suleiman, whose name was substituted for Abdulazeez Kaka as the candidate for the Kaduna North Federal Constituency, declined to issue an immediate aggressive reaction.

Similarly, the former Speaker of the Kaduna State House of Assembly, Yusuf Zailani, dismissed speculations of an impending defection after losing the Kaduna Central Senatorial ticket to consensus candidate Shehu Sani.

Speaking on a local radio station, Zailani remarked that political office is ultimately determined by divine providence.

“Elections are in God’s hands. Whether the party conducts primaries or not, if God has destined someone to emerge, it will happen,” Zailani said.

Reflecting on his five terms in the State Assembly as Chief Whip, Deputy Speaker, Speaker, and Acting Governor, he added: “APC is my home, and I will work for its victory in the next election.” He noted that his loyalty remains intact out of respect for President Bola Tinubu and Governor Uba Sani.

We’ll pacify aggrieved stakeholders —Yilwatda

However, dismissing speculations of potential sabotage during the upcoming 2027 election, APC National Chairman Prof. Nentawe Yilwatda said the ruling party had opened discussions with stakeholders aggrieved by the outcome of the recently concluded local and national primaries.

He explained that while the party did not set up a special reconciliation committee, but it had deployed governors, national leaders, and other key stakeholders to reach out to affected members. Expressing optimism, he stated that the issues would not escalate beyond their current surface level.

Abimbola Tooki, the Special Adviser on Media and Communication Strategy to the National Chairman, gave this assurance during a chat with Sunday Sun. He dismissed speculations that the grievances were tearing the party apart, stressing that the concerned individuals fully understood the implications of participating in the party’s electoral process.

“The party has various conflict resolution mechanisms to handle complaints from aggrieved members,” Tooki said. “The good thing is that they are members of our party. More importantly, they know that there must be winners and losers in any contest.

“This is not the first time this type of incident is happening, and it will not be the last. It has happened previously, and the party has a mechanism to settle disputes. This situation will not be an exception; we will definitely resolve it,” he assured.

Asked if the party had set up a special committee to reach out and pacify them, he replied: “There is always continuous interaction among party leaders at the local, state, and national levels with aggrieved stakeholders.

“The situation has not gotten so out of hand that the national leadership would need to set up a special committee. The rules guiding the behavior of party members are clearly spelt out in our constitution.”

On whether the party has already reached out to the affected members, he said: “All I can tell you is that discussions are already ongoing. That is why the governors and other party leaders are involved—so that the issues the states are supposed to settle do not escalate to the national level.”

He equally dismissed insinuations that some state governors are aggrieved over the dropping of their preferred candidates. “I am sure that no governor has officially complained to the media concerning the alleged dropping of their candidates. It is purely in the realm of speculation and, more or less, a creation of the media. Some of these issues are actually fabricated,” he concluded.

Anxiety in opposition

Nomination portal has intensified opposition anxiety on two fronts. First, it triggers a legitimacy crisis in parties with parallel executives or leadership disputes. State chapters that held primaries under non-recognised factions risk total erasure, while national working committees in Abuja gain absolute control to bypass local choices and impose loyalists. Second, the portal fuels fresh anxiety over subsisting court cases.

ADC

The final judgment in the African Democratic Congress (ADC) leadership tussle will decide its legitimacy and viability ahead of 2027.

If the court validates one faction, legal certainty is restored. INEC will recognise only that faction’s candidates, providing clarity for voters and boosting aspirant confidence. However, the party faces deep internal scars, lost momentum, and public scepticism over its governance capability. If the court nullifies both factions or orders fresh congresses, an existential crisis looms. Close to election deadlines, a lack of recognised leadership risks a zero candidate and an INEC lockout. This would trigger mass defections of viable candidates to rivals like the PDP or the NDC mega-alliance, devastating the ADC brand.

Ultimately, a favourable ruling restores legality but leaves a weakened, fractured party. An adverse judgment threatens total collapse, leaving the ADC with no leadership, no candidates, and no ballot presence for 2027.

NDC

The INEC has given the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) a temporary lifeline by restoring its access to the candidate nomination portal after the party applied for a stay of execution. The party immediately uploaded high-profile names, including Peter Obi for President and Senator Seriake Dickson for the Senate. The move buys time, but the party’s survival now rests entirely on the judiciary. The appellate court, and possibly the Supreme Court, will decide whether the NDC exists legally or not. The outcome creates two stark scenarios for 2027. If the Court of Appeal overturns the Federal High Court’s judgment and permanently validates the NDC’s registration, the party gains full legal standing. The names already on the INEC portal would be secure for the general election. A legal win would energise the NDC’s grassroots base and maintain its position as the main challenger to the ruling party. Ballot certainty would allow the party to focus on structure, funding, and campaigning rather than litigation.

If the court affirms that the NDC’s registration was invalid due to logo infringement or procedural flaws, the party ceases to exist in law. INEC cannot place a non-existent party on the ballot, so every NDC candidate would be disqualified. That triggers a zero candidate crisis. With deadlines closing, Obi, Kwankwaso, and dozens of National Assembly hopefuls would have to scramble for emergency shelter in other registered parties. Under the Electoral Act, substituting candidates after the nomination window is extremely difficult. A late ruling could lock the opposition out of the ballot entirely, neutralising the challenge before voting begins. Primaries conducted by the NDC would also be deemed a legal nullity.

INEC’s portal access is procedural caution, not approval. The NDC is operating on borrowed time. Its legal team will seek an expedited hearing because prolonged uncertainty freezes donors, stalls structures, and leaves voters in limbo. (The Sun)

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