There was mayhem at the packed gathering of fans on 17 June, when Argentina star Lionel Messi scored his first 2026 Fifa World Cup goal by coolly slotting the ball past the Algerian goalkeeper.

But not a single Argentine was in the crowd: the fans jumping around – many of them wearing the famous albiceleste (white and sky blue) shirt – were locals in one of the many open-air watch parties in Bangladesh’s capital, Dhaka.

Cities in India and Indonesia have also hosted similarly passionate street gatherings.

Messi and his countrymen have been adopted by these fans, in part because their own nations have repeatedly failed to qualify for the World Cup.

Of the world’s 10 most populous countries, only two have made it to the current tournament (the United States and Brazil). Two others (Russia and Nigeria) have appeared at several previous tournaments.

China and Indonesia have only once taken part in the most popular sporting event on the planet.

India (the world’s most populous nation), Bangladesh, Ethiopia and Pakistan have so far only dreamt of joining the party – although India technically qualified for the 1950 World Cup in Brazil, but withdrew less than a month before the tournament started.

“It is simply unacceptable that a country with millions of football fans should lag so far behind in football,” renowned Bangladeshi actor, writer and football fan Karim tells the BBC.

So why is it that population size is such a poor guide to footballing success?

Does size really matter?

In theory, the larger the population of a given country, the more potential athletes there are to recruit.

Seven out of the eight nations to ever win the World Cup (Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain) have relatively large populations.

The only exception Is Uruguay – but more on them later…

However, population size is only one of a number of important factors, explains British academic and economist Stefan Szymanski.

“Football is very similar to how national economies work. For them to thrive, you need people. But then you also need capital and infrastructure,” says Szymanski, who is the co-author of Soccernomics, a best-selling book which analyses data to examine sporting success and failure.

“In football, that means training facilities and the ability to find talent.”

Szymanski observes that the vast majority of successful footballing nations share another common denominator: wealth.

In Soccernomics, Szymanski and co-author Simon Kuper found that countries typically need “a minimum annual average income per capita of $15,000 to win anything”.

But Brazil and Argentina, whose average income per capita is well below this threshold, have won eight World Cup titles combined.

That, according to the British economist, shows the importance of the third factor: know-how.

“And that comes with experience. The nations that have ever won the World Cup are the ones that were dominant in playing the game 100 years ago, before colonialism ended.”

A game of catch-up

In plain terms, successful footballing nations, including the ones with regular participation in tournaments like the World Cup, are also the ones that have played more games across their history, especially in regions with higher levels of competitiveness like South America and Europe.

That helps explain, for instance, why Uruguay, a South American nation of 3.5 million people, were able to win two World Cups (1930 and 1950). La Celeste’s first international game – a 6-0 defeat to Argentina – took place in 1902, 12 years before Brazil played its first representative game.

African and South Asian nations, which have existed for a much shorter time or where football developed later, have had to work hard to catch up.

Some have stood out: Morocco, which became independent from Spain and France in 1956, became the only African nation to ever reach a World Cup semi-final in Qatar 2022. South Korea became the only Asian nation to ever finish in the top four, as co-host in 2002.

“But then we see other countries like Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, and so forth, which are not catching up,” Szymanski observes.

The economist says these countries have struggled due to a lack of resources and capabilities. But even with more investment they would still struggle with the lack of know-how, he believes.

Ethiopia’s woes

Ethiopia has never qualified for the World Cup. It did win the African Cup of Nations in 1962, but its best chance to reach the main event came in the 2014 African qualifiers: Ethiopia reached the final round of qualifying but were beaten by Nigeria over two legs.

Currently, Ethiopian football is dealing with what local media describes as acute underinvestment in the game. One example is that the ongoing season of the country’s professional league has suffered from a shortage of suitable stadiums to host games.

“This season, we have staged more than 380 matches using only three approved stadiums,” Ethiopian Premier League Chief Executive Officer Kifle Seife told The Reporter newspaper on 27 June.

The shortage also affected the men’s national team, which had to play its home matches in the African qualifiers in Morocco.

Cricket: an obstacle or an excuse in South Asia?

Some countries are also victims of their success in other sports: India is one the most dominant cricket nations on the planet and its professional league, the IPL, is the world’s richest.

That, according to former India international Shyam Thapa, leads to severe recruitment difficulties. The success of the IPL, he says, has led middle-class and upper-middle-class parents to increasingly steer their children away from football and towards cricket.

“They [the parents] need to understand that there can be good money if they can make a career in football too,’’ Thapa, told BBC News.

Audite Karim, however, points out that Australia and New Zealand are developing in football and making it to the Word Cup, despite being cricket powerhouses.

“The popularity of cricket is purely an excuse,” she says of Bangladesh, which also adores the sport.

“We simply do not have the preparation and structural framework required for a country to play in the [football] World Cup.”

Is China a sleeping giant?

China’s case is perhaps more puzzling. In recent decades, it has become one of the most successful countries in Olympic history. But its forays into men’s football have not borne similar fruit.

“There’s no reason [in theory] why China can’t produce world-class footballers,” Mark Dreyer, a Beijing-based Chinese football expert, believes.

“The main problem is that in China everything is controlled by the state and everything is top-down. You need footballing people making footballing decisions, but there’s far too much political interference.”

China has not returned to the World Cup since 2002, despite heavy investment in the game since the 2010s – which included the flooding of its professional league with various high-profile names from South American and European football in a bid to elevate the standard of play.

Like China, Indonesia has also tasted World Cup action once before – in 1938, when it competed as the Dutch East Indies, then a colony of the Netherlands.

The Sou’h East Asian side had a good run in 2026 though, reaching the final qualifying round.

But that performance is perhaps better explained by a decision to recruit European players with Indonesian heritage rather than relying on homegrown talent.

“At times there were eight or nine European-born players in Indonesia’s starting XI,” says Jerome Wirawan, News Editor at the BBC’s Indonesian service.

Pakistan and Bangladesh exited the Asian qualifiers at the group tage, with no wins in six matches. Pakistan was also banned from international football three times by Fifa between 2017 and 2025 for political infighting in its governing body.

Enjoying the party – one way or another

So, for football fans of many countries, World Cup glory may seem a long way off.

In the meantime, Karim says, the consolation prize is simply to enjoy the party.

“In light of reality, I do not see any possibility of seeing Bangladesh play a World Cup in my lifetime.”

“But Bangladeshi football fans will still want to experience every bit of the joy of the tournament.” (BBC)

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