If Nigeria held its general elections today, the opposition National Democratic Coalition (NDC), led by Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso, would enjoy a substantial advantage, according to a new Voter Sentiment Tracker released by SBM Intelligence.

The SBM report, quoted in a June 16, 2026 report by BusinessDay, revealed that national voting intention stood at 57.4 percent for the NDC, compared with 11.3 percent for the ruling APC and 10.3 percent for the ADC, while 11.3 percent of respondents remained undecided.

As per BusinessDay, “The SBM survey of nearly 1,000 respondents across Nigeria's six geopolitical zones found that President Bola Tinubu's administration may be facing deep public discontent, while former Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi currently enjoys the strongest favourability ratings.”

According to the report, “The Southwest and Northeast are the two zones where the outcome is most open, but for entirely different reasons.

“The Southwest has the lowest high-turnout intention of any zone (44%), the largest undecided share among major zones (23%), and the only significant APC vote base (22%), yet its sheer size and President Tinubu's incumbency advantage make it structurally pivotal.

“The Northeast, by contrast, is not apathetic so much as fragmented: 43.3% fall in high-turnout band, but the vote splits three ways: ADC at 23.1%, APC at 17.3%, NDC at 12.5%, with 16.4% still undecided. While the Southwest's uncertainty stems from a Yoruba electorate that has yet to decide whether to defend its president or defect, the Northeast's uncertainty stems from the genuine absence of a dominant opposition figure. Both zones could determine the margin of victory; neither will be won the same way.”

SBM Intelligence noted that the findings represent a snapshot of public opinion rather than an election forecast. The survey was conducted in May across eight states and the Federal Capital Territory and was not weighted against official voter registration or demographic data.

BusinessDay noted that, “Beyond voting intentions, the survey also highlights concerns about the quality of information available to voters. Social media has become the dominant source of political information across most regions, while concerns about artificial intelligence-generated misinformation and deepfakes are growing, particularly among older voters.”

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