Director of Research at the Nigeria Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), Professor Femi Otubanjo, has warned that the ongoing political tensions in Rivers State involving Governor Siminalayi Fubara could weaken President Bola Tinubu’s support base in the South-South ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Speaking during an interview on ARISE NEWS on Thursday, Otubanjo described the unfolding situation in Rivers politics as damaging and politically destabilising, saying it reflects an unusual power struggle within the state’s leadership structure.

He did not mince words in his assessment of how Governor Fubara has been treated within the state’s political environment.

“The treatment of Fubara must be one of the American wonders of Nigerian politics. Fubara has been badly treated,” he said.

Otubanjo argued that the current dynamics in Rivers State suggest competing political interests that may not necessarily align with President Tinubu’s broader electoral strategy.

According to him, influential political actors in the state appear to be pursuing personal political interests rather than a coordinated party agenda.

“What has emerged today in Rivers is that Wike is pursuing his own agenda, not Tinubu’s agenda,” he said, adding that the ongoing manoeuvres around the governorship structure could create long-term political consequences.

He cautioned that any move to sideline Fubara could destabilise the political balance in Rivers State, warning that such decisions may backfire electorally.

“To remove Fubara… is to be creating problems for Tinubu,” he said, noting that such actions could alienate key voter blocs in the state.

Otubanjo further claimed that influence over candidate selection in Rivers politics has shifted away from formal party structures, raising concerns about internal democracy.

“We have a situation in which Wike, who is not even in the APC, has taken control of the primary situation in the APC,” he said, describing the development as politically risky for the ruling party.

He warned that excluding Fubara from the political equation could weaken the party’s electoral chances in Rivers State and by extension the wider South-South region.

“By removing Fubara from the scenario, you are alienating the people of Rivers State… you are undermining your ability to win Rivers State,” he said.

Otubanjo added that the implications extend beyond Rivers, stressing that political dissatisfaction in the state could ripple across the South-South geopolitical zone.

“So really, by removing Fubara, you are shooting yourself in the leg… it is Tinubu’s leg that has been shot,” he said.

While acknowledging that political operators can influence candidate selection, he insisted that electoral outcomes ultimately depend on the people.

“Wike does not own Rivers State. He owns the machinery of selection but not the people,” he said.

Otubanjo concluded that although President Tinubu currently retains a political advantage in parts of the South-South, mismanagement of internal disputes could erode that support base ahead of 2027.

He added that while the ruling party may appear strategically positioned, Nigeria’s political landscape remains unpredictable.

“A week is a long time in politics,” he said. (The Sun)

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