BMI: Nigeria to gain N6.8tr as GDP forecast hits 4.4%

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, yesterday, warned the Federal Government over poor economic management, citing the drop in external reserves despite rising oil earnings.

Also, Nigeria’s external reserves fell to $48.45 billion as of April 24 from $48.72 billion recorded the previous week, representing a decline of about $1.57 billion since March 11.

Atiku’s warning came amid reports of a N5 trillion oil windfall within the same period.

In a statement by his Senior Special Assistant on Public Communication, Phrank Shaibu, the former VP said the development showed a troubling trend.

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) chieftain said the persistent depletion of reserves suggested that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) was injecting liquidity to support the naira, describing the approach as unsustainable.

He said: “On one hand, the nation’s external reserves have declined to $48.45 billion — with a cumulative depletion of about $1.57 billion since March 11. On the other hand, Nigeria has reportedly earned N5 trillion from the oil windfall within the same period.

“This contradiction — of dwindling reserves amid rising oil earnings — exposes a dangerous pattern of economic mismanagement. This is not stability; it is a fragile illusion sustained by burning through national savings. A nation cannot consume its buffers to mask policy failures while ignoring the structural weaknesses undermining its currency.”

According to the former vice president, defending the naira without improving productivity, exports, and investor confidence will worsen the situation, likening the policy to pouring water into a basket.

Lamenting that the oil windfall had not translated into relief for Nigerians, who are facing high fuel prices, rising transport costs and inflation, Atiku described the situation as unjust and called for targeted measures to cushion the impact of fuel price increases, stabilise food supply and support vulnerable Nigerians.

Nigeria could record an additional N6.8 trillion in oil revenue in 2026 as rising crude prices driven by the ongoing United Stated-Iran conflict strengthen the country’s fiscal outlook.

This is according to BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, in its April Sub-Saharan Africa market assessment, which also raised Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast.

The report highlights how higher global oil prices, alongside ongoing domestic reforms, are expected to support government revenues and improve macroeconomic stability despite lingering inflationary pressures.

BMI estimates that Nigeria’s fiscal position will benefit significantly from higher oil prices, with Brent crude now projected to average $78 per barrel in 2026.

“Higher Brent crude prices, now expected to average $78bbl versus $67bbl pre-conflict, should deliver a fiscal windfall of about N6.8 trillion, or just over one per cent of GDP”.

Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for 2026 was increased from 4.3 p er cent to 4.4 per cent.

Petrol prices in Nigeria have risen by over 50 per cent since the escalation of the Middle East conflict.

BMI noted that Nigeria was less exposed to economic disruptions from the conflict than other Sub-Saharan African economies, supporting its improved growth outlook. (Guardian)

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