•Sarafa Isola, Yayi, Isiaka, Adebutu, Lemo top discussions

•‘We’ll collect politicians’ money, vote with conscience’ – Indigenes

•Pendulum may not swing in power brokers’ direction – Analysts

•The role religion may play

•Gov Abiodun’s ‘body language’ – Aide

As the race for the 2027 governorship election in Ogun State gathers momentum, stakeholders and grassroot players have indicated that the pendulum may not swing in the direction anticipated by those seen as power brokers.

A month-long investigation by THE POINT revealed that the voting pattern across the senatorial districts of the state would be determined by considerations different from war chests and political party affiliations.

Sixty-eight per cent of respondents in a poll conducted by THE POINT between January and February 2026 said they would accept monetary inducements from politicians but vote for their preferred candidates. Fifteen per cent said they would go with the highest bidder while 17 per cent of respondents were indifferent.

Many of those who spoke to our correspondents in separate interviews agreed that the results of the presidential and National Assembly elections would likely rub off on the governorship elections across the states. They, however, insisted that the pains of the past years had changed the perception of the electorate about elections in Nigeria.

According to findings, top contenders for the Number One Seat in Ogun State, who are firmly on the field, currently, are a former Minister of Mines and Steel Development and former High Commissioner of Nigeria to the United Kingdom, Amb. Sarafa Isola (Ogun Central); lawmaker representing Ogun West in the National Assembly, Senator Solomon Adeola, popularly known as Yayi; the 2023 Governorship Candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party in Ogun State, Hon. Ladi Adebutu (Ogun East); a former Governorship Candidate of the African Democratic Congress and a sitting House of Representatives member under the All Progressives Congress, Prince Gboyega Isiaka (Ogun West); and a former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Dr. Tunde Lemo (Ogun Central).

Others who have indicated interest in the governorship race and are actively on the field are: Senator Iyabo Obasanjo, who represented Ogun Central in the National Assembly between 2007 and 2011; lawmaker representing Egbado South and Ipokia Federal Constituency at the National Assembly, Hon. Abiodun Akinlade; and a former Governorship aspirant in the state/Convener of The Alternative, Otunba Segun Showunmi, among others.

Many of those who spoke with our correspondents said they were getting conflicting signals from the camps of political leaders with respect to the likely successor of the incumbent Governor Dapo Abiodun. They, however, offered their opinions on the strengths and weaknesses of the aspirants that had, so far, declared interest in the race.

THE ASPIRANTS: HOW THEY STAND

SARAFA ISOLA

Ambassador Sarafa Isola, a former High Commissioner of Nigeria to the United Kingdom and former Minister of Mines and Steel Development, is a frontliner in the race to Oke Mosan though, as of the time of this report, he had not formally declared his ambition to contest in the 2027 governorship election in Ogun State.

“The greatest impediment in the way of his (Adebutu’s) ambition, this time, according to analysts, is the fact that he is aspiring to succeed a governor who comes from the same zone as him. The choice of the party to contest with could also pose a problem with the unending leadership crisis in his party, PDP”

One thing that almost all respondents, from Ogun West to East and Central, said could not be taken away from him was his grassroots credibility, which they said had been earned through his years of diligent service in the state, in various capacities.

As a former local government chairman in Ogun State, chairman of chairmen, and Secretary to the State Government, under the administration of Otunba Gbenga Daniel, he is well prepared for the office he is eyeing, according to over 70 per cent of respondents.

“Amb. Isola has lived all his life in Ogun State. He has been a constant factor here and truly has the interest of the state, especially Ogun Central, at heart. He is popular across divides, among the elite and the less privileged. He probably has been preparing for this for a long time because, right now, it appears that he is the best fit,” a former member of the House of Representatives from Ogun West, who pleaded anonymity, told our correspondent.

According to findings, the Muslim community in Ogun State are clamouring for a Muslim to succeed Governor Abiodun, after eight years in office, for equity and fairness. Investigations revealed that in the 50 years of Ogun State’s existence, only former Governor Ibikunle Amosun had governed the state as a Muslim.

The Egbas are also saying it is their turn to govern (Egba lokan). All these cards, including his street credibility, combine to make a strong case for the former High Commissioner, as a low hanging fruit for any political party to win in a keenly contested governorship election.

As the Baba Adinni of Ogun State, and Baba Adinni of Yorubaland, Edo and Delta States, he is a popular Egba Muslim that can easily get the buy-in of Muslim leaders, the analysts said.

It was specifically gathered that he was persuaded to vie for the position by distinguished sons and daughters of Ogun State, who organised a reception in his honour after a widely acclaimed meritorious service in the UK.

SOLOMON ADEOLA (YAYI)

Senator Solomon Adeola, popularly known as Yayi, currently represents Ogun West Senatorial District in the National Assembly. Before exploring the Ogun State political terrain, he represented Lagos West Senatorial District for two consecutive terms, between 2015 and 2023. Before then, he served as the Chairman, House of Representatives Committee on Public Accounts, from 2011 to 2015. As of now, Yayi is the Chairman, Senate Committee on Appropriations.

“The fact that he (Yayi) is rumoured to be the President’s choice may be an advantage for him within his party, not with the electorate… If his promoters change their strategy from ‘he is Asiwaju’s choice’ to ‘he is the people’s choice’, he may be able to tackle the resistance that could surface later”

Fifty-five per cent of respondents believe that the lawmaker is more popular among the All Progressives Congress leaders in the state than the majority of indigenes who form the bulk of the electorate. According to them, the fact that he had represented Lagos in the National Assembly since 2011 and only came to Ogun State in 2023 makes his ambition a bit difficult to sell in a state that has produced presidents and very prominent Nigerians.

Many of those who spoke with our correspondent, however, agreed that the senator had carried out a lot of empowerment activities, especially in Yewa, which could count in his favour.

They noted that, right now, Yayi was considered the “highest spender” of all contenders.

But others argued that, as the Chairman, Senate Committee on Appropriations, “he is well positioned to spend” and must also justify his constituency allowances.

“Yayi is on the lips of many people now in the state. I gathered that a good percentage of officials in the Gov. Dapo Abiodun administration are Yayi people. But he must play his politics right and not rely entirely on these politicians. The fact that he is rumoured to be the President’s choice may be an advantage for him within his party, not with the electorate,” a state government official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, owing to the sensitivity of the matter, said.

Politics

If Yayi gets the APC ticket, he would need the undiluted buy-in of the Central to win the governorship election. More than three top politicians, who have been frontliners in the politics of Ogun West, long before the emergence of the senator, are also eyeing the seat. This, respondents said, could work against him in a district with lower numbers.

The senator is also said to be facing heated criticism with regard to his actual state of origin. While his promoters have insisted, with statements, that he is a bonafide Ogun State indigene, opponents have held on to the notion that he is not from the state.

“Perhaps, if his promoters change their strategy from “he is Asiwaju’s choice” to “he is the people’s choice”, he may be able to tackle the resistance that could surface later,” an APC chieftain from Ogun East, told our correspondent in confidence.

LADI ADEBUTU

Hon. Ladi Adebutu, fondly called Lado, was the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party in the 2023 governorship election in Ogun State. He represented Remo Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives for a single term from 1992 and has been very active in Ogun State politics since then.

“Amb. Isola has lived all his life in Ogun State. He has been a constant factor here and truly has the interest of the state, especially Ogun Central at heart. He is popular across divides, among the elite and the less privileged”

Seventy-two per cent of respondents agreed that Adebutu’s grassroots appeal could not be taken away from him, noting that he had been consistent with empowerment and oiling the structure of all the parties he had identified with, right from the outset.

Having contested more than twice for the Senate seat, his 2023 outing as PDP governorship candidate was his closest shot at governorship, analysts said. Some even alleged that he won the election but was rigged out.

The popularity and generosity of his father, billionaire nonagenarian, Sir Kesington Adebutu, has been an added advantage for the businessman cum politician.

The greatest impediment in the way of his ambition, this time, according to analysts, is the fact that he is aspiring to succeed a governor who comes from the same zone as him. The choice of the party to contest with could also pose a problem with the unending leadership crisis in his party, PDP.

“Lado’s structure is still very much intact. He can still pull the surprise he pulled the last time with a formidable structure. He is very strong across Ogun East and even in the central,” a PDP member, Abbass Ahmed, said.

TUNDE LEMO

Former Managing Director of Wema Bank and former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Dr. Tunde Lemo, is relatively new on the political scene. Being a boardroom guru, a first class product of the University of Nigeria Nsukka, whose focus should always be on productive venture cum spending, analysts are of the opinion that he must have secured some firm commitments from “kingmakers” in the APC before entering the fray.

A fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria, former Chairman of the Abuja Securities and Commodity Exchange Plc and former Chairman of the Federal Road Maintenance Agency, Lemo has gathered enough experience to make a difference in governance, especially in terms of further growing the state’s internally generate revenue and judicious allocation of resources.

However, while Lemo is very popular among the elite and ruling class, about half of the respondents, who are mainly voters and not politicians, said they only started hearing about him a few months ago.

If the slogan in Ogun Central – Egba lokan – gains ground, he also has a chance to clinch the ticket of his party just like others from the district.

“One snag, however, is that he is a pastor, and many people, not only the Muslims, are saying that, after eight years of Governor Abiodun, a Muslim should emerge in the spirit of fairness. But Yayi is also a Christian, so let’s see how it goes,” Mrs. Folasayo Mathew-Alade, a financial expert from Ogun Central, said.

IYABO OBASANJO

Senator Iyabo Obasanjo, daughter of former President Olusegun Obasanjo, represented Ogun Central Senatorial District in the National Assembly between 2007 and 2011.

She defected to the ruling party about a month ago after staying out of Ogun politics and out of the country for 15 years.

Her defection was particularly interesting, analysts said, because of the strong alignment of her father, the former president, with the opposition.

Some political watchers have even linked her energy in the media, where she has continued to sell her ambition, to some assurances she might have secured from the Presidency that a woman would be supported to become a governor of one of the states. Some also said, through her, the APC administration probably hoped to get the support of her father.

However, over 75 per cent of respondents, who acknowledged that she did fairly well during her stint at the Senate, opined that she was not strong enough to win a governorship election in the state. They also think it is still not time for a woman to emerge a governor in a state like Ogun.

About 50 per cent of respondents said the renowned epidemiologist and former Commissioner of Heath in Ogun State, might have had a better chance if she had declared for the Senate, having lost a re-election bid to Senator Gbenga Obadara of the then Action Congress of Nigeria in 2011.

“What we’ve heard is that the Villa might want to use her candidacy to get close to Baba Obasanjo, and that the First Lady, Senator Remi Tinubu, really wants a woman to be governor during their administration and she might have given Iyabo the go-ahead to purchase the governorship form,” an APC chieftain in Ogun Central, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said.

Overall, many of those who spoke with our correspondents said the younger Obasanjo was displaying some kind of energy that connoted a strong support from a formidable base.

GBOYEGA NASIR ISIAKA (GNI)

Prince Gboyega Nasir Isiaka is a household name in the Ogun State political scene, having been on the ballot as a governorship candidate, three consecutive times, on the platform of different parties. He currently represents the Yewa North/Imeko-Afon Federal Constituency in the National Assembly.

His 2019 shot at governorship, under the African Democratic Congress, was deemed very close until last minute dynamics changed the play.

Isiaka, a First Class graduate of Accounting from the University of Ife (now Obafemi Awolowo University), and former Managing Director of Gateway Holdings, is known to be very popular among his people in Ogun West. This is why analysts have said that his decision to join the race will, most likely, affect the chances of Senator Adeola, from the same district.

Being an active Muslim, he is also said to stand a chance on the basis of religion. Sixty-three per cent of respondents said he was a good candidate for the governorship seat but opined that his candidacy might not fly, this time, as a result of what they described as “money politics” going on in his zone.

“Yayi seems to have cornered many of the top politicians from Yewa. But everyone knows that GNI is our own, a bonafide son of the soil, who has continued to make us proud for decades. But I’m afraid, GNI may not fly this time,” Olaleye Akinyemi, a Yewa indigene, told our correspondent.

SEGUN SHOWUNMI

Otunba Segun Showunmi, the Convener of The Alternative, was a governorship aspirant under the Peoples Democratic Party in 2023. He later joined forces with Adebutu, who eventually won the ticket, to pull the commendable performance recorded by the party in the 2023 Ogun governorship election.

He is known for his strong opinions on national issues with his writings and regular appearances on national television. He declared his intention to contest in the 2027 governorship election in a statement he published via his social media handles a few weeks ago.

Though many respondents are of the opinion that he still has a lot of work to do to be considered as a top choice for the governorship seat, some grassroots politicians think the Egba Agenda could also favour him. It is not, however, clear on which platform he hopes to contest.

GOV ABIODUN’S ROLE

There have been speculations that Governor Abiodun may be supporting Isiaka to succeed him as governor. Others have said he is looking at the option of Senator Shuaib Salis, who currently represents Ogun Central Senatorial District in the National Assembly. Those who mentioned Salis said his religion and Egba credentials fit into the recommendations that may be considered for the 2027 election.

However, a senior official of the Governor Abiodun administration, who spoke in confidence to our correspondent, noted that the governor would not impose a candidate.

“The governor’s position, which he has made me realise over again is that he will allow the system to throw up the best candidate,” the official said.

As the race for who occupies the Governor’s seat at Oke Mosan, after Abiodun, hots up, political watchers have said the state’s 2027 governorship contest will be very interesting.

Political commentary

They, however, called for peace throughout the process. (The Point)

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