By OLUMIDE AYOOLA

The air in Osogbo is thick with more than just the dust of the harmattan as we crawl toward the defining moment of 2026. In the beer parlours of Ajegunle in Osogbo, the market stalls of Iwo, and the high-walled inner sanctums of our political elite, a single phrase is being whispered like a sacred incantation: “Federal Might”. To some, it is a promise of inevitable victory; to others, a looming shadow of institutional intimidation. But as we stand on the precipice of the August 15, 2026 Osun governorship election, it is time to subject this phantom to the cold light of life and history.

In the theatre of Nigerian politics, “Federal Might” is the ultimate boogeyman. It conjures images of the partisan deployment of security agencies, the weaponization of the treasury, and an electoral umpire suddenly stricken with selective amnesia. The All Progressives Congress (APC) in Osun is currently navigating this perceived glow! But we must ask a fundamental question: Is there truly such a thing as federal might in a functional democracy? Or is it merely a psychological crutch for parties that have forgotten how to speak to the soul of the voter?

To answer this, we must look backward to leap forward. History is the greatest antidote to political hubris. Cast we mind back to 2014 – a year that remains etched in the collective memory of every Osun citizen? The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) held the presidency. The Goodluck Jonathan-led federal government was at the height of its powers and, frankly, its desperation. Jonathan deployed the full weight of the Nigerian state – the military, the police, and the hooded DSS operatives – into our streets. The objective was singular and blunt: to unseat the then-incumbent, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola.

If “Federal Might” were an absolute law of nature, Aregbesola would have been swept into the dustbin of history that August. Yet, the opposite happened. The people of Osun stood their ground, their votes acting as a bulwark against the perceived arrogance of the center. That era proved a vital point: Democracy is a decentralized contract. The power to govern comes from the thumb of the peasant in Ile-Ogbo and the trader in Ile-Ife, not from a boardroom in the Federal Capital Territory. When a people are determined, “might” becomes a paper tiger.

This brings us to the present. The APC has presented Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji, popularly known as AMBO, as the man to reclaim the Oke-Fia Government House. Some peddle the rumour that, with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in power, the path is cleared for a forced coronation. But those who suggest this do not know the man in the Villa.

President Tinubu is a quintessential democrat who built his entire political legacy on resisting the very “might” his critics now fear he will unleash. We must remember the early 2000s, when Tinubu, as Governor of Lagos, dared the federal might of former President Olusegun Obasanjo. When the centre seized Lagos’s local government funds to punish the state’s creation of LCDAs, Tinubu did not surrender. He didn't beg for crumbs/ instead, he fought the illegality all the way to the Supreme Court and won. He looked the “imperial presidency” in the eye and blinked last.

A man who nearly went bankrupt to defend the principles of true federalism and the autonomy of the states will not be the one to orchestrate the subversion of the will of the good people of Osun. The man who fought federal might for years will not be the one to unleash it on his own people. To suggest otherwise is to ignore decades of documented struggle for democratic sanctity. Asiwaju Tinubu knows better than anyone that a mandate stolen via “might” is a mandate that lacks the moral authority to lead.

Does Oyebamiji even need the “myth” of federal might to win? Of course, the answer is a resounding no. If a candidate relies on the shadow of a distant power to win a local mandate, he has already conceded his lack of organic legitimacy. AMBO must stand on his own merits – and those merits are considerable. He is a man of documented administrative pedigree, a two-term Commissioner for Finance who understands the intricate pulleys and levers of the state’s economy. His attributes – his calmness, his technocratic depth and his unblemished record – are the real "might" he possesses.

Conversely, we must ask the hard question: Has the incumbent performed enough to earn a second term? While Governor Ademola Adeleke’s supporters point to his “dancing” charisma, the “Edenization” of the state’s bureaucracy has left a bitter taste in the mouths of many. The systematic removal of seasoned technocrats, such as the Rector of Osun Poly and the head of the Health Insurance Scheme, only to replace them with kinsmen, is a betrayal of the 30 local governments and one Area Council that make up the state.

The relocation of the Industrial Park from Osogbo and the shifting of the Osun State Airport from Ido-Osun to the backyard of the Adeleke country home in Aisu, Ede, is viewed by right-thinking Nigerians as a brazen abandonment of balanced development. These “fumbling tactics” in managing the state’s diversity have turned many who once cheered him into skeptical observers. Winning a reelection is a function of the social contract. It is not a gift bestowed by a godfather.

Those peddling the “might is right” narrative are merely afraid of their own shadows. They fear that their record of clannishness cannot stand the scrutiny of a free and fair contest. This idle chatter will not deter AMBO from doing the needful: winning the hearts of his people through a superior vision of inclusivity and progress. He is not looking to Abuja for a shortcut; he is looking to the streets of Osun for a mandate.

On August 15, 2026, the noise from Abuja will be irrelevant. The electorate in Osun – discerning, sophisticated and historically defiant – will enter the polling booths to decide if they want four more years of “Edenization” or a return to administrative excellence.

“Federal might” is a ghost that only haunts those who don’t believe in their own people. In Osun, we have shown before that we don’t believe in ghosts. We believe in results. We believe in dignity. And we believe that when the final results are reflected on August 15, it is the character of the candidate and the resolve of the voters that will see Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji emerge victorious. The myth will shatter, and the truth of the people’s will shall prevail!

•Ayoola wrote from Ilesa, Osun State.

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