Succession battles in states where second-term governors are serving out their tenure are intensely raising the political temperature ahead of party primaries officially scheduled for the latter part of the year.

The Incumbency endgame unfolding across the states signals the end of off-season power politics, sparking fierce succession battles.

Sunday Sun findings revealed that several states are already becoming hot zones because the tenure of their governors gradually winds to an end, making their seats open for a fresh contest. This naturally triggers intense internal party friction.

At least 10 states, including Ogun, Oyo, Nasarawa, Kwara, Gombe, Adamawa, Borno, Bauchi, and Lagos are experiencing heated succession battles, with prominent aspirants jostling for governorship race. This has inadvertently put the governors in a precarious situation. History has shown that when a governor fails to manage the transition through broad-based consensus, the result is often a palace coup within the party or a humiliating defeat by the opposition. In most cases where governors attempt to hand-pick successors in secret dark rooms, aggrieved aspirants who feel sidelined either defect to an opposition party or stay within the party to work as internal saboteurs.

For a transition to be truly seamless, the outgoing governors may have to intensify sincere consultations and dialogue with relevant stakeholders to evolve a succession plan that guarantees continuity and acceptability. In an era of economic hardship, voters are becoming less tolerant of stooges. The next few months and how succession issues are managed will reveal which of the governors might be seeking a third term by proxy.

Already, the jostling for succession is intensifying across the states and the political machinery is pivoting toward the 2027 general elections. Incumbents are scrambling to secure their legacies and install loyalists, while ambitious party members and rivals are moving to seize the looming vacuum.

However, contention issues determining the way scenarios play out vary from state to state. In some states like Ogun, Kwara, and Nasarawa, power rotation is the major bone of contention. In others, godfathers’ anointing is the cause of the unease being currently experienced.

Ogun

Ogun State is a tinderbox of succession politics, and an epic centre of rotation battle. Currently, the ruling APC is grappling with a historical debt that Governor Dapo Abiodun must either pay or bypass—a decision that will likely determine if the party stays united or fractures before 2027. The most significant flashpoint is the agitation from Ogun West Senatorial District. Since the state’s creation in 1976, Ogun West (Yewa-Awori) has never produced a governor. There is a massive emotional and political push for equity. Groups like the Ogun West Initiative are already framing 2027 as a now or never moment. If Governor Abiodun, who is from Ogun East, does not support a successor from the West, the region may align with the opposition PDP in a protest vote, similar to what nearly happened in previous cycles.

Among the leading contenders, Senator Solomon Adeola Olamilekan from Ogun West is widely considered the man to beat. He has a massive financial war chest and a formidable political structure popularly dubbed Yayi Movement. He is the leading face of the Yewa-Awori for Governor Movement.

Gboyega Nasir Isiaka (GNI), who is also from Ogun West, is a three-time governorship candidate and current member of the House of Representatives (Yewa North/Imeko-Afon). GNI is respected for his intellectual approach and home-grown status in the zone. He remains a highly popular alternative if the party seeks a candidate without the Lagos tag.

Tokunbo Talabi is the current Secretary to the State Government (SSG). As Governor Abiodun’s most trusted lieutenant, his candidacy would represent total continuity. However, being from Ogun East like the governor, his bid faces the stiffest opposition from zoning advocates.

Senator Shuaib Afolabi Salisu, representing Ogun Central, is the intellectual powerhouse of the Egba bloc. If the APC decides not to zone the ticket to the West, he is a top-tier candidate who could leverage his relationship with both the governor and the Egba traditional institution.

Wale Edun, the current Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, is increasingly viewed as the Technocratic Joker in the pack. Unlike other aspirants who rely on local structures, Edun carries the weight of Aso Rock. He has been a core member of President Tinubu’s inner circle since their days in Lagos (1999–2004). If the Presidency decides that Ogun needs a steady, technocratic hand to manage its status as Nigeria’s industrial hub, Edun becomes the anointed candidate that local power brokers would find very difficult to oppose.

Though the peace of the graveyard persists, the political atmosphere remains highly volatile, explosive, and sensitive. With the APC, tensions are running high and a small spark could ignite a larger conflict or crisis. The scramble is already creating friction between three distinct interests within the party. One, the rivalry between former Governor Ibikunle Amosun and Dapo Abiodun is still very much alive. Amosun still commands a significant loyalist base within the state. If Abiodun’s succession plan is seen as weak or exclusionary, Amosun’s camp could act as spoilers or field a parallel candidate.

Secondly, many in Ogun are wary of candidates seen as being imported from the Lagos political stable. This Lagos versus home-grown sentiment is a recurring theme that rivals use to de-legitimize certain aspirants.

Thirdly, Governor Abiodun himself is rumoured to be eyeing the Ogun East Senatorial seat currently held by Gbenga Daniel. This creates a musical chairs scenario where he must balance his own future with the ambitions of his successor to ensure he isn’t boxed out once he leaves Oke-Mosan Government House.

The Gbenga Daniel power dynamic is perhaps the most personal and strategically intense rivalry in Ogun State today. He has shown no incentive for stepping aside. To gain control of the ticket, there has been a push to marginalise him within the party. In late 2025, Daniel was purportedly suspended by his ward exco for alleged anti-party activities. The National Working Committee (NWC) of the APC has had to intervene multiple times to prevent a total Implosion, but at the state level, the friction remains raw.

This rivalry isn’t just about a Senate seat; it’s a battle for the soul of Ogun APC. While Abiodun and Daniel fight in the East, Senator Solomon Olamilekan (Yayi) from Ogun West is watching closely. If Abiodun spends his political capital fighting Daniel, he may not have enough influence to anoint a successor in the governorship race.

If a sincere dialogue isn’t initiated soon, Ogun East could become a swing zone in 2027. If Daniel feels completely pushed out of the APC, he has the structure to either defect back to a strengthened PDP or run under a different banner, potentially taking a significant chunk of the APC’s voting bloc with him.

Already, Ogun West leaders are positioning the zone as the stabilising force of the state. While the East (Ijebu/Remo) is consumed by the Abiodun-Daniel battle and the Central (Egba) is still recovering from the Amosun-Abiodun friction, the West is presenting itself as the only zone capable of offering a fresh, unified start. They are reaching out to aggrieved followers of both Abiodun and Daniel, offering them a seat at the table in an Ogun West-led administration.

Traditionally, the East (Ijebu/Remo) usually provides a massive bloc vote. If they are divided between Abiodun’s candidate and Daniel’s preferred choice, a unified Ogun West candidate could easily sweep the primaries.

The Ogun PDP, led by Ladi Adebutu, is also watching closely. If the APC fails to pick a candidate from the West, the PDP could steal the march by fielding a Yewa-Awori candidate, potentially winning the state on the strength of the West’s protest votes.

Ogun State scenario presents a high-stakes game of political chess where the West is finally playing with a full set of pieces.

Nasarawa

Like Ogun, there’s been a growing demand for power shift in Nasarawa State, with leaders from Nasarawa North and West senatorial districts pushing for their zones to take the governorship seat in 2027. The current governor, Abdullahi Sule from Nasarawa North, is completing his second term, and stakeholders argue it’s time for another zone to take over.

In Nasarawa North, stakeholders demand the governorship ticket, citing a 25-year wait for power. On the other hand, their counterparts in the Nasarawa West argue it’s their turn, with Senator Aliyu Wadada emerging as a strong contender. The Nasarawa South (Toto/Nasarawa) equally demands the governorship slot, citing equity and historical precedence.

So far, the frontline contenders include Senator Aliyu Wadada, (Nasarawa West), Dr. Musa Ahmed Mohammed (Barade) (Nasarawa North), Accountant General and a popular choice among youth groups and Dr. Faisal Shuaib, former Executive Director of National Primary Health Care Development Agency. The contest has reignited the long-standing debate over zoning.

For decades, Nasarawa politics has operated an informal zoning arrangement aimed at balancing power among the state’s zones. But as 2027 approaches, that arrangement is under strain.

Wadada has long been regarded as a kingmaker in Nasarawa politics. His return to the APC is widely seen as a strategic move to remain relevant either as a governorship aspirant, power broker, or bargaining force for federal influence. However, his defection unsettles not just the SDP and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), but also complicates the APC’s internal dynamics. While some party members welcome him, others resent his return after enduring difficult periods within the party.

An APC stalwart in Karu, who declined to be named, said: “We stayed when APC was under pressure. Now those who left are returning to reap the rewards. Many loyalists are unhappy.” A political analyst, Abdullahi Isah, summed it up: “Wadada has redefined the grammar of 2027. He is both an aspirant and a kingmaker. The big question is whether he will run or bargain.”

Former IGP Mohammed Abubakar Adamu has generated the most strategic buzz. He has reportedly intensified consultations and stakeholders’ engagement. His supporters say his experience as a national security chief gives him authority, discipline, and strong federal connections. “We need someone who can command respect in Abuja and at home,” said Alhaji Danjuma Ogoshi, a stakeholder in Nasarawa West.

Yet critics argue his candidacy strengthens calls to abandon zoning, potentially alienating zones that believe it is their turn. Political commentator, Esther Luka, warned that while Adamu’s national stature is strength, local political balance remains crucial in Nasarawa.

Musa Ahmed Mohammed (Barade Nasarawa) is reportedly being backed by youth groups and traditional institutions. His supporters describe him as accessible and diligent. His closeness to Governor Abdullahi Sule has fuelled speculation that he might be the governor’s preferred successor. APC youth leader Yusuf Abdullahi said: “Barade listens to young people and manages resources transparently. Continuity matters.”

However, critics argue his political ambition while serving as a public officer raises ethical concerns, with opponents portraying him as the “system’s candidate.”

Dr Faisal Shuaib represents the technocratic option. With international recognition in public health and experience managing major national interventions, he appeals to professionals and reform-minded stakeholders. His supporters believe he could broaden APC’s appeal beyond patronage politics. Analysts, however, caution that technocrats often struggle without strong grassroots machinery.

Dr Muhammed Musa Maikaya, through the Maikaya Development Foundation, has invested heavily in education, health, and youth empowerment across the state. His philanthropy has earned him loyal grassroots support, particularly in rural communities. He is the only aspirant who is neither a government employee nor a political appointee, and arguably the longest-standing aspirant in the APC race. “His name is already in our homes, not just on posters,” said Alhaji Ibrahim Abdullahi, a community leader in Nasarawa North. Still, observers note that without strong backing from party power brokers, grassroots goodwill alone may not secure the ticket, though some believe he could emerge as a consensus candidate.

Supporters of an open contest argue zoning has outlived its usefulness, while others warn that abandoning it could deepen divisions. Sani Haruna described zoning as a “safety valve,” cautioning that ignoring it could breed resentment, even as rigid adherence might stifle strong candidates.

Voices, such as that of former national chairman, All Progressives Congress (APC), Abdullahi Adamu continue to insist that power should shift to Nasarawa West, further complicating the zoning debate.

As aspirants quietly build alliances, the APC primaries will be the ultimate test where zoning, money, defections, godfathers, youth activism, and technocratic appeals collide. As a political pundit, Abdul Kareem Ismailia, observed: “This election will decide whether Nasarawa politics remains about zoning and godfathers, or whether the grammar is changing toward open competition and competence.” Whichever way it goes, the 2027 governorship race promises to be one of the most consequential and unpredictable in Nasarawa State’s history.

Borno

Uneasy calm pervades the political space in Borno as political leaders and stakeholders overreach themselves in permutations about who succeeds the incumbent Governor Babangida Zulum in 2027. Prof Zulum will finish his two-term tenure on 29th May, 2027. Right now, Borno faces a difficult choice. Therefore, the next few months before the primaries of the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) is pregnant with uncertainties over who succeeds him.

Sunday Sun reliably gathered that while Zulum strives to concentrate on governance, resettlement and rehabilitation of displaced victims of terror attacks, frequent visitations to local government areas, among other commitments, he is actually worried about the cloud of uncertainty surrounding the 2027 election.

“The governor is working and moving as if there is nothing at stake. The truth is that he is worried about making the right choice of person to succeed him- someone who can do the kind of work he is doing and relate with people’s concerns, not just any politician,” one of the governor’s allies who preferred anonymity told Sunday Sun.

There are concerns that none among the aspirants who have already signified interest in the governorship seat have the passion, resilience and courage to keep the Zulum tempo in Borno. The challenge of adopting and electing a successor in the coming party primaries ahead of the 2027 poll is further exacerbated by conflict of interest among the political leaders in the state. Many believed that Vice President Kashim Shettima’s voice in the selection process will eventually determine the successor. They argued that Zulum “won’t debate whoever Kashim endorses.” Others differ, insisting that “the VP may play a smart politics on his political godson by asking all his allies to abide by Zulum’s choice who he has publicly referred to as the party leader in the state.”

According to sources in APC, Zulum prefers a hard-working, trusted and fearless person to a core politician as his successor; the same attributes that led to his choice ahead of other politicians in 2019. However, Sunday Sun learnt that he is also being careful not to offend the core politicians who may misunderstand his intention as an attempt to shut out the political class from power.

Despite these concerns, some names have continued to prop up as governorship hopeful. These include the current Minister of Agriculture, Sen Abubakar Kyari, Sen Mohammed Tahir Monguno, Sen Kaka Shehu Lawan (SAN), Zugun Mai Mele and Hon Muktar Betara, among others.

Kyari is an experienced politician and loyal ally of Vice President Kashim Shettima. He is seen by many as elitist amid the urbane. Tahir Monguno, the Senate Whip and a long-serving National Assembly member, is largely unassuming. Senator Lawan, the youngest among in the list, though considered a protégé of Vice President Kashim Shettima), is believed to be courageous having served as Attorney General and in various capacities for the state counter-insurgency interventions.

Mele, who is the state’s Commissioner for Local Government and Emirate Affairs, is a grassroots politician, an introvert and unassuming personality. Hon Muktar Betara is the Chair, House of Representatives Committee on appropriation.

By antecedents, the choice of a successor is usually a combination of deep political strategy, high level consultations with traditional rulers, religious leaders and other stakeholders outside political arena. Therefore, 2027 guber race may not be different.

Yobe

In Yobe, the task of choosing a successor to Governor Mai Mala Buni appears less complex than Borno’s scenario. Many believe a former governor and one time minister of Police affairs, Ibrahim Gaidam, has the final words. Those already listed for the governorship seat include Senator Musa Mustapha (Kulas), APC representing Yobe East senatorial zone, the Secretary to the State Government (SSG), Alhaji Baba Wali, Senator Mohammad Bomai representing Yobe West, former Senate President, Ahmed Lawan, and Lawan Kolo, currently a mandate secretary at the FCT.

Many believe Gaidam has the final words on the choice of Governor Buni’s successor. Gaidam is the longest serving elected governor in Nigeria, having spent 10 years in office. He completed the tenure of Gov Mamman Ali who died in office on January 26, 2009 and got elected for first tenure in 2011 and subsequently served his second term till 2019. He was believed to have anointed Buni, back then a dark horse, as his successor in 2019. Up till date, Buni remains loyal to Gaidam as his godfather and father-in-law, having married his daughter.

Bauchi

In Bauchi, succession politics is equally increasingly getting intense. Adamu Mu’azu and Isa Yuguda, both former governors, remain influential figures in the state. Mu’azu, known as The Game Changer, served two terms from 1999 to 2007 and later became PDP National Chairman. Yuguda, who succeeded Mu’azu, served from 2007 to 2015 and has significant sway in the state’s politics. Their involvement in the governorship selection process could shape the outcome, considering their experience and networks. Mu’azu’s tenure was marked by infrastructure development, while Yuguda has maintained a strong presence in state politics.

Additionally, Governor Bala Mohammed is facing the difficult change of managing emerging interests within his cabinet. Sunday Sun investigation shows that at least seven of appointees are interested to contest for the governorship seat. They include embattled Commissioner of Finance, Dr Yakubu, Adamu who has just been released from the EFCC custody, his campaign Director General and current Commissioner for Rural Development and Special Duties, Deputy Governor, Auwal Jatau, Commissioner for Housing and Environment, Danlami kawule, Baba Maaji and Commissioner for Youth and Sports, Adamu Gabarin. There are also strong speculations that the incumbent SSG Aminu Hammayo may join the contest. This has made it difficult for Governor Bala to decide who to choose as his preferred successor.

Despite the fact that Governor Mohammed has done a lot in executing many people-oriented projects across the nooks and crannies of the state, it is becoming a tug of war for him to successfully anoint a successor.

Lagos

The Lagos governorship race is arguably the most complex succession puzzle in Nigeria. The state is unique because its transition is governed not just by the incumbent, but by the Governor’s Advisory Council (GAC) and the overwhelming shadow of the Presidency.

Currently, there is an uneasy calm in the state’s political landscape. The battle for Alausa is splitting into three distinct camps: The so-called institutional continuity bloc, the wildcard disruptors, and the grassroots bloc. The continuity bloc includes candidates who represent the established order. They are seen as safe hands who understand the technocratic requirements of managing Nigeria’s economic hub while remaining fiercely loyal to the party structure. Among this set of aspirants, Senator Tokunbo Abiru, representing Lagos East, is widely viewed as the banker-statesman in the mould of Fashola. His profile as a financial expert appeals to the business community, and he’s often cited as a frontrunner within the GAC circles.

Despite his recent public statements downplaying a 2027 bid to focus on his role as Chief of Staff to the President, Hon Femi Gbajabiamila remains at the top of every list. His transition from Speaker of the House to the Presidency has only increased his political capital.

The current Deputy Governor, Dr. Kadiri Hamzat, is the most experienced successor in the room. However, in Lagos, the deputy position has historically been a difficult springboard to the governorship.

The wildcard disruptors are candidates likes Seyi Tinubu and Akinwunmi Ambode, who bring independent influence that could force the party to rethink its usual playbook. While he has not officially declared, the Seyi Tinubu for Governor Movement has gained significant visibility. His entry would change the race from a contest of resumes to a contest of dynastic consolidation.

Former governor Ambode’s recent reconciliation with President Tinubu and his return to political activities have sparked intense rumours. While some suggest he may run on an opposition platform like the ADC or LP, Ambode has recently reaffirmed his commitment to the APC. A return bid would be an unprecedented redemption arc in Lagos politics.

As the longest-serving Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly, Hon. Mudashiru Obasa, controls the legislative machinery and has deep roots in the state’s traditional and local government structures. He represents the politician’s politician wing of the party.

A chieftain of the ruling APC, who craved anonymity, confirmed that Lagos is now a hot zone because of the heavyweight contenders in the governorship race. He, however, assured that the party leadership is doing everything possible to manage the selection process in a way that would ensure unity and cohesiveness.

He said: “Frankly speaking, this election is going to redefine power dynamics in Lagos State. We are all concerned that Lagos has become a hotbed of politics because of the contending forces. However, we will navigate the complex succession process without much acrimony.

“The race looks dicey because this is the first time President Tinubu will manage a Lagos succession while also managing a national re-election campaign. But the APC is aware that any internal implosion—such as a repeat of the Ambode-Sanwo-Olu fallout of 2019—could hand the state to an opposition like the Labour Party (LP), which still maintains a strong following. We are doing everything to guide against a repeat of that episode. Not even at this time.”

Kwara

The 2027 governorship contest in Kwara State has also intensified, making various interest groups and individuals from Kwara North and Kwara South position themselves for the succession of Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq.

Kwara North is pushing the strongest for the governorship, arguing that they haven’t held the position in the current democratic era (since 1999). Senator Sadiq Umar, representing the zone in the Senate, has been a prominent voice for the region’s interests. His supporters often point to his legislative experience as a credential for the state’s top job.

Shuaib Yaman Abdullahi, the 2023 PDP governorship candidate, who is also from Kwara North, equally remains a significant figure. While it is unclear if he will run again, his previous campaign built a substantial infrastructure in the region. Recent reports indicate that APC aspirants from Kwara North are meeting to form a united front to ensure the party ticket is zoned to their region to prevent splitting their internal strength.

Kwara South, which last held the governorship under Abdulfatah Ahmed (2011–2019), is also actively demanding a return to power, often framing their bid around religious inclusion or competence. Here, the Deputy Senate Leader, Lola Ashiru, is a heavyweight in Kwara South politics. There is a wide speculation regarding his interest in the 2027 race, leveraging his influence within the APC.

A particular group in Kwara South is advocating for a Christian governor to emerge in 2027. This concession, the group argues, would balance the state’s religious and political landscape, which has seen a long line of Muslim governors.

While the Central District (Ilorin) has traditionally produced the most governors, Hakeem Lawal, Son of the late Governor Mohammed Lawal, ran on the platform of the SDP in 2023 and retains a strong following in Ilorin. He is widely expected to be a major player again in 2027, potentially challenging any zoning arrangement that excludes the Central district. For now, they are currently in a wait-and-see mode. (The Sun)

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