The International Energy Agency (IEA) has said that Nigeria currently has a sustainable crude oil production capacity of 1.42 million barrels per day and zero spare capacity, despite the recent announcements that the country could significantly raise output in the coming months.

The organisation stated this in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), painting a sobering picture for Nigeria, one that sharply contrasts with the country’s formal Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production target of 1.5 million bpd.

According to the agency, which provides authoritative data, analysis and policy advice on global energy markets, technologies and transitions, Nigeria’s output cannot be immediately ramped up in response to market tightness or geopolitical disruptions.

The IEA figures showed Nigeria’s OPEC crude oil production in recent months hovering well below the headline quota, after averaging about 1.44 million bpd in November and slipping to roughly 1.43 million bpd in December.

Although in absolute terms, the gap between quota and actual output appears small at roughly 70,000 bpd, in market terms it is significant, as it reflects structural constraints rather than voluntary restraint by Africa’s largest oil producer.

Nigeria’s crude oil production has for about six years struggled to match official pledges. While the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) and the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) have set ambitious targets of around 2 to 2.4 million bpd, actual output has consistently fallen short.

Despite occasional spikes in production, the shortfalls have been largely driven by underinvestment, security challenges, aging infrastructure, and operational inefficiencies, including non-functional evacuation routes.

However, apart from the 1.42 bpd reported by the IEA as Nigeria’s sustainable oil production in the short term, the absence of spare capacity was the most consequential element of the organisation’s assessment.

Spare capacity refers to volumes that can be brought online within a short period, typically between 30 to 90 days, and sustained for some time. In oil markets, this buffer is crucial, acting as insurance against shocks such as outages, conflicts, or sudden demand surges.

But according to the IEA, Nigeria currently lacks this buffer entirely, meaning that the barrels Nigeria is producing today are effectively its maximum sustainable output under present conditions.

A THISDAY analysis of the IEA data showed a clear contrast between Nigeria and core producers that continue to dominate global spare capacity.

Saudi Arabia remained the single largest holder of readily available supply, with a spare capacity of over 2.4 million bpd.

The UAE also retained meaningful flexibility of 60,000 bpd, while Iraq and Kuwait held a more modest but still material buffer of 53,000 bpd and 34,000 bpd respectively. This means that unlike Nigeria, these countries are not only producing below their technical limits but are doing so deliberately as part of OPEC+ supply management.

Outside this group, spare capacity was either extremely limited or non-existent, with several African producers mirroring Nigeria’s situation, albeit at much smaller absolute volumes.

Angola, for example, continued to struggle with structural decline driven by underinvestment and ageing fields, leaving it well below historical production levels and with no meaningful capacity to surge output.

Besides, Libya’s production still remains volatile with frequent outages, while among non-OPEC producers, the IEA data underscored a similar theme of tightness.

In all, the IEA put global oil demand growth at an average of 930 kb/d in 2026, up from 850 kb/d in 2025, reflecting a normalisation of economic conditions after last year’s tariff turmoil and lower oil prices than a year ago.

This year, it said that world oil supply is projected to rise by 2.5 million bpd to 108.7 million bpd, following an increase of 3 million bpd in 2025. Non-OPEC+ accounts for 1.8 million bpd of the gains in 2025 and 1.3 million bpd in 2026, it added. (AriseNews TV, excluding headline)

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