Exactly two years ago, I published a comprehensive practical risk-assessment for the 36 states, based on information in the public domain, with a-90-per cent accuracy. I produced risk-assessment for schools, election and terrorism. I was surprised when I received calls from concealed numbers, telling me to be more patriotic and not post information like this in the public domain but rather come to Abuja to see them – hmmm. I say no more.

Two years after that posting, the current National Security Adviser (NSA), Maj-Gen Babagana Monguno (retd) disclosed the benefits of the revised NACTEST strategy. He explained what organisations and individuals could do to help in its implementation in order to reduce the risks of terrorism and ensure that people go about their lives freely and with confidence. For many security analysts and policy makers, securing community ownership of any project should be the first protocol, and the success of the new NACTEST strategy would be determined by accessibility and involvement of security stakeholders outside the military family and NSA’s office.

According to Monguno, “NACTEST is organised around five streams aimed to forestall, secure, identify, prepare and implement with key objectives and indicators to effectively ensure monitoring and evaluating successes at each stage.”

The introduction of the five thematic planks should be welcome, but the biggest challenge so far has to do with monitoring and evaluation of the Nigerian Counter Terrorism Strategy which is wrapped in secrecy with no statistics to measure successes against world standard. The only practical solution is for the current NSA to establish a unit in the Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA), tasked with policy monitoring and evaluation of the NACTEST implementation across Nigeria’s security infrastructure.

Also speaking at the NACTEST re-launch, the Coordinator, Counter Terrorism Centre (CTC), Commodore Yem Musa, said that ONSA, in furtherance of the national counter terrorism efforts, developed the ‘National Terrorism Levels’

document to guide ministries departments and agencies (MDAs) on measures to be taken on receipt of information on likely terrorist attacks. Musa said that the document outlines the alert levels and the actions to be carried out when a terrorism alert level is declared is in five-levels, including: Critical (red) – Attack is imminent; Severe (orange) – Attack is highly likely; Substantial (yellow) – Attack is a strong possibility; Moderate (blue) – Attack is possible but not likely; and Low (green) – Attack is unlikely.

I wish the National Security Adviser, Maj-Gen Monguno, the best of luck with his new NACTEST strategy. But a ‘new strategy in a system that is not fully reformed’ will not work....

That is just my socio-political prophesy...

•Temitope Olodo, whose photo appears alongside this piece, is a Preventive Terrorism Expert, Author and Chair of Nigeria Diaspora Security Forum based in the UK.

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