Next month?s governorship election in Anambra promises a plum reward for the political class but far less for the electorate, who are nursing security risks and attendant voter apathy that are fast becoming the norm, LAWRENCE NJOKU reports.

Not one but three major concerns are being expressed ahead of the November 8, 2025, governorship election in Anambra State, an exercise many had hoped would reaffirm the state?s democratic strength and political sophistication.

At the top of these concerns is the deep-seated voter apathy that has trailed every governorship poll in the state since Nigeria?s return to democracy in 1999. Despite spirited campaigns and civic advocacy over the years, a significant number of eligible voters have continued to stay away from the polls, leaving a small fraction of the electorate to determine who governs the state.

The second challenge is the cloud of insecurity that has plagued the South-East, typified by the sit-at-home syndrome that has crippled business and social life for years. Though security agencies and the state government have continued to downplay its impact, the lingering fear and uncertainty have continued to discourage political mobilisation and public participation.

Adding to the mix is the growing unease over how the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) will ensure a free, fair, and credible election amid widespread allegations that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is mounting pressure on opposition parties to collapse into its structure. According to political observers, the fear is that the national ruling party?s drive to gain a foothold in the Southeast, where it remains largely unpopular, could compromise the integrity of the poll.

With barely weeks to go, stakeholders within and outside Anambra are voicing concerns over whether the election outcome will truly reflect the will and aspirations of the people, or be shaped by forces beyond their control.

Despite Governor Chukwuma Soludo?s determined efforts to restore calm and confidence in the state, political observers fear that the coming poll could replicate the pattern of poor turnout that has blighted Anambra?s elections for more than two decades.

Elections have witnessed a steady decline in the state since Nigeria returned to democratic rule 29 years ago. Data from the INEC revealed a consistent drop in voter participation in Anambra?s governorship elections, even as registration numbers continue to climb.

In 1999, Anambra recorded about 2.2 million registered voters, of which 1.02 million, roughly 46.4 per cent cast their ballots. Participation improved slightly in 2003, when approximately 1.3 million voters cast their ballots.

But from 2010, the numbers began to collapse. That year, only 302,000 voters, a mere 16 per cent of the 1.84 million registered, participated in the election that produced former governor, Peter Obi.

In 2013, turnout rose marginally to 465,891, representing 25 per cent of the 1.77 million registered voters, while the 2017 election saw 448,711 ballots cast, accounting for about 21 per cent of the 2,064,134 registered voters.

The slide reached its lowest point in 2021, when out of 2,466,638 registered voters, only 253,388 participated, roughly 10 per cent. Governor Soludo of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) secured victory with 112,229 votes, defeating Valentine Ozigbo of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), who scored 53,807, and Andy Uba of the APC, who garnered 43,285.

Observers say these figures are not only alarming but also symptomatic of a deeper malaise, one that calls into question the legitimacy and inclusiveness of Anambra?s electoral process.

Fear, insecurity and the Biafra agitation factor

Behind the steady decline lies a complex mix of security concerns, separatist threats, institutional failures, and growing distrust of the political class.

In interviews with The Guardian, the Chairman of the International Society for Civil Liberties and Rule of Law (Intersociety), Emeka Umeagbalasi, traced the roots of voter apathy to the activities of non-state actors in the Southeast, whose campaigns for secession have often been accompanied by threats of violence during elections.

?For years, pro-Biafra agitators and their factions have declared that there will be no elections in Anambra,? Umeagbalasi said. ?They use intimidation, propaganda, and fear to keep people indoors. Many residents flee the state during election week, while those who registered simply stay away from polling units for fear of being attacked.?

He recalled that in some past elections, the atmosphere of fear was so thick that entire communities were deserted, with only a handful of voters braving the odds to participate.

The activist also faulted INEC for failing to clean up the voter register in earlier years, alleging that up to 60 per cent of names in the 2010 register were fictitious, including ?dead people, non-residents, and inanimate entries.? The revelation, he said, eroded public confidence and reinforced cynicism about the integrity of the process.

Beyond the agitation factor, insecurity, often driven by criminal elements masquerading as separatists, has kept large portions of the state under siege. Kidnappings, political assassinations, and violent attacks on security personnel have become recurring features of the pre-election landscape.

Between 2022 and 2024 alone, no fewer than 14 politically motivated killings were recorded, according to a recent report by the Cleen Foundation, which also highlighted Ihiala, Ogbaru, Nnewi South, Orumba North, and Onitsha North as high-risk areas for the 2025 election.

INEC credibility and the poverty dimension

Political analyst, James Onuoha, believes the apathy in Anambra elections stems from more than insecurity. He argues that years of disillusionment with governance and the electoral umpire have left citizens feeling that their votes no longer count.

?When people believe results are pre-determined, they disengage,? he said. ?Insecurity only amplifies that disinterest. It becomes a convenient excuse for a process many already distrust.? Onuoha also noted that insecurity often ?favours incumbents,? as elections tend to hold only in areas that are politically convenient for those in power.

?Only in areas favourable to government interests will materials arrive on time,? he said. ?In flashpoints where the opposition is strong, security concerns are cited to limit participation.?

He, however, added another layer to the crisis, poverty and vote buying. According to him, economic hardship has led many voters to adopt transactional politics.

?Vote trading has become a coping mechanism for the poor,? he said. ?The coming election will see an exponential increase in vote buying unless INEC and security agencies act decisively.?

Anambra has long prided itself as the cradle of Igbo political consciousness, home to national icons like Nnamdi Azikiwe, Alex Ekwueme, and Chuba Okadigbo. Yet, ironically, it also records the lowest voter participation rates in the South-East.

Some stakeholders in the state argue that this paradox stems from elitist political fragmentation and the disconnection between politicians and the general public. The dominance of billionaires and godfathers, coupled with repeated intra-party conflicts, has alienated ordinary citizens.

In 2021, the governorship contest was largely defined by elite battles within the APC, PDP, and APGA, rather than grassroots mobilisation. ?People saw it as a fight among the rich,? said Awka-based political scientist Dr Chika Ezenwa. ?When politics becomes an exclusive game for the wealthy, the poor opt out.?

November 8: Another test for Soludo and INEC

As the 2025 election approaches, Anambra?s political landscape is crowded with familiar and new contenders. Governor Soludo, seeking a second term on the APGA platform, faces a stiff challenge from Nicholas Ukachukwu (APC), George Moghalu (Labour Party), and Paul Chukwuma (YPP).

Each candidate has anchored his campaign on the promise to restore security and rebuild trust between citizens and the government. Soludo, who in 2021 extended an olive branch to armed groups and set up community vigilante outfits, insists that his administration has made ?considerable progress? in reducing violent crime.

However, insecurity still persists in certain areas of the state. Some communities, such as Lilu, Orsumoghu, and Isseke, remain partly deserted. Residents recently appealed for government intervention, lamenting that their areas had become ghost towns due to gunmen?s activities.

In Ihiala, where the 2021 election was rescheduled due to violence, fears remain that a similar scenario could recur. Cleen Foundation and other civic groups have warned that failure to secure high-risk zones could again disenfranchise thousands of voters.

Non-state actors shifting stance

Interestingly, some former agitator groups are now urging participation rather than boycott. The Movement for the Actualisation of the Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB) last week disowned an alleged online directive urging Anambra residents to shun the poll.

MASSOB leader, Uchenna Madu, told The Guardian that the group ?will mobilise people to vote,? stressing that participation is ?in the interest of Ndigbo.?

?We can never allow outsiders to dictate our political and economic space,? he said. ?Elections must be held, and the people must choose their leader.?

This shift, from hostility to participation, could mark a subtle but significant change in the political environment, potentially improving turnout if sustained.

Institutional safeguards and security build-up

INEC officials in Awka have assured residents of readiness for the poll, promising early deployment of materials and improved logistics. The state?s Commissioner of Police, Ikioye Orutugu, has announced a ban on unregistered vehicles and those with covered number plates, citing public safety.

Security agencies are also collaborating with traditional rulers and religious leaders to promote peace and voter confidence. ?We expect communities to take ownership of this election,? said a senior police official. ?People must feel safe enough to vote.? Civic organisations like Yiaga Africa, Cleen Foundation, and Transition Monitoring Group (TMG) are equally rolling out voter education campaigns aimed at countering apathy and misinformation.

Can Soludo reverse the tide?

The central question remains whether Governor Soludo, despite the odds, can inspire a reversal of the declining trend in participation. His supporters argue that his reformist image, technocratic background, and grassroots outreach could endear him to the electorate.

Soludo?s emphasis on infrastructure renewal, education, and local economic empowerment, especially through his ?One Youth, Two Skills? initiative, is seen as an attempt to connect governance with daily livelihoods.

Yet, critics insist that the benefits of his policies have not trickled down enough to shift public sentiment. Beyond Anambra, the November poll carries symbolic weight for the entire Southeast. The region, once celebrated for high political awareness, has in recent years witnessed declining turnout and rising scepticism. The 2023 presidential election saw similarly low participation, especially in states affected by sit-at-home orders and voter intimidation.

If Anambra manages to stage a peaceful, credible, and participatory election, analysts say it could serve as a template for the 2027 general elections and help restore confidence in democracy across the region.

With 2,802,790 registered voters and weeks to go before the election, attention is now on how INEC, security agencies, and political actors handle logistics, communication, and safety. The stakes are high: failure to improve participation would deepen cynicism and further erode democratic legitimacy.

Parties promise robust mobilisation to curb voter apathy

To address the challenge of voter apathy, leaders and candidates of participating parties explained how they have intensified mobilisation ahead of the election amid concerns over logistics, security, and voter apathy.

YPP candidate Paul Chukwuma said his party is committed to a peaceful, free, and fair election, noting that campaigns have reached several communities to engage citizens. Through his Media Director, Ebuka Onyekwelu, he expressed confidence in INEC?s capacity but urged it to probe ?government?s excessive expenditure? on pre-election activities and sanction any overspending.

Candidate of the coalition African Democratic Party (ADC), John Nwosu, said his campaign had covered all 21 local councils, sensitising citizens on participation. ?We are now in the door-to-door stage,? he said. ?Our grassroots teams are teaching voters to recognise the ADC logo, avoid invalid votes, and resist vote buying.?

Labour Party?s candidate George Muoghalu lamented that only eight per cent of eligible voters participated in the last election. Through his Campaign DG, Okey Chukwuogo, he stated that the LP was engaging communities and markets to promote voter education, while expressing optimism about INEC?s neutrality but warning against the potential use of ?enormous government resources? to skew the poll.

Meanwhile, Soludo promised rewards to LGAs with the highest votes, a move critics said could ?compromise the poll,? though others view it as motivation against apathy. (The Guardian)

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