When Dudley Seers, a British development theorist, asked in 1969, ?What has been happening to poverty? What has been happening to unemployment? What has been happening to inequality?? he was warning against mistaking economic statistics for real progress. Today in Nigeria, those same questions echo louder than ever.

As economic hardship bites and poverty deepens, a few continue to thrive in luxury while millions struggle to survive. The government?s bold reforms have steadied macroeconomic indicators but widened the gulf between comfort and despair, leaving many to wonder: whose economy is really improving?

The removal of fuel subsidy and the unification of foreign exchange rates by President Bola Tinubu?s administration were designed to stabilise the economy and attract investment. Instead, they have unleashed an uneven reality, where the wealthy adapt and thrive, while millions of ordinary Nigerians struggle to survive.

Reforms and the reality gap

The government?s economic team points to progress. Inflation is slowing. The naira is gaining strength currently trading below N1,500 against the US dollar. Foreign reserves now above $42 billion, highest since 2019. Yet, behind the numbers lies an uncomfortable truth, the majority of Nigerians are poorer today than they were two years ago.

According to the World Bank?s Nigeria Development Update titled ?From Policy to People: Bringing the Reform Gains Home,? poverty levels are projected to climb to 61 percent in 2025, meaning about 139 million Nigerians will live on less than $3 a day, up from 129 million in 2024.

?Between 2019 and 2023, average consumption fell by 6.7 percent, especially in urban areas, while poverty rose from 40 percent (81 million people) to a projected 61 percent (139 million people) by 2025,? the report said.

For the poor, this is not theory, it is daily life. The cost of transportation, food, rent, and healthcare has outpaced earnings. Once-comfortable families are now rationing meals. Many children have dropped out of private schools for public ones, and countless workers have relocated from city centres to far-flung suburbs where rent is cheaper.

The rich still thrive

But while the poor tighten their belts, Nigeria?s wealthy seem untouched by the crisis. Across Lekki, Maitama, and Ikoyi, new estates are springing up. Car showrooms are selling luxury SUVs at record rates. Restaurants serving N50,000-per-plate meals are fully booked on weekends.

The rich are not just surviving the harsh economy, they are exploiting its volatility. Many have investments in foreign currencies, real estate, and blue-chip stocks that profit from inflation and devaluation. The same reforms that have destabilised the poor, such as FX unification, have multiplied the assets of those with dollar holdings.

Some analysts describe this as ?reform inequality?, policies that reward financial sophistication and access to capital but punish low-income earners who live hand-to-mouth.

While an elite minority sends their children to foreign universities and flies abroad for medical care, millions of Nigerians are trapped in failing public schools and hospitals.

Funso Doherty, an investment executive-turned politician, captures the paradox in a recent interview, saying, ?While the government celebrates exchange rate stability and reserve build-up, the majority of Nigerians are battling declining living standards. When you talk about the quality of life of the people, education, health, income levels, poverty, you see that economically, we are in a very difficult place.?

The disappearing middle class

Perhaps, the most worrying casualty of the current economic strain is Nigeria?s middle class, the teachers, civil servants, small business owners, and professionals who once powered urban life.

Over the past two years, rising inflation and stagnant incomes have eroded their purchasing power. Once proud homeowners are selling property to cover bills. Some are migrating abroad in search of stability. Others are taking second jobs or moving into smaller apartments.

?I recently relocated to Ebule Egba from Surulere due to house rent,? said Idris Adewole, a middle-aged engineer. ?I rarely go out with my car unless I?m going with my family.?

A call for people-centred policies

The World Bank says the government?s next challenge is to ensure that macroeconomic gains are felt at the household level.

?The Nigerian government has taken bold steps to stabilise the economy, and these efforts are beginning to yield results. The true measure of success will be how these reforms improve the daily lives of Nigerians, especially the poor and vulnerable,? Matthew Verghis, the World Bank?s country director for Nigeria, said.

Economists also said that the challenge now is not just about sustaining growth but ensuring that its benefits are shared more equitably.

?Macroeconomic stability must be translated into tangible household relief,? said Abdulfatai Adedeji, a research fellow at the Centre for the Study of Economies of Africa (CSEA).

He proposed three key steps: expanding social protection to cover all vulnerable groups through reliable cash transfers; investing strategically in agriculture to lower food prices and create jobs; and supporting small and medium enterprises (SMEs) through soft loans, tax breaks, and infrastructure upgrades.

?These measures will empower businesses to expand, create jobs, and raise incomes, thereby bridging the gap between slowing inflation and Nigerians? purchasing power,? Adedeji said.

Simon Samson, an economics lecturer at Baze University, agreed that reforms must now focus on people rather than policies. ?Policies should ensure food security for every Nigerian; make Nigeria the easiest place to do business; provide social safety nets for the most vulnerable; and ensure inflation rate is always on target,? he said.

Nigeria?s economy, once described as a sleeping giant, may indeed be waking up. But for millions of its citizens, the awakening has come with pain, not prosperity.

If Seers were to revisit his questions today, Nigeria?s answers would be sobering. Poverty is climbing toward 61 percent, unemployment and underemployment remains high, and inequality has become the defining feature of national life.

The reforms may have steadied the macroeconomic ship, but millions remain adrift beneath its deck. Until growth is measured not just by fiscal discipline or investor confidence, but by the dignity of ordinary Nigerians, true development will remain an illusion, a statistic that hides more than it reveals. (BusinessDay)

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