Late President Muhammadu Buhari was, without question, the northern leader with the most enduring political clout in Nigeria?s recent history.

From his first presidential bid in 2003 until his final contest in 2019, Buhari commanded the North, especially the North West, with near-total loyalty.

His presence on the ballot meant votes were guaranteed, and his name alone was enough to galvanize the region.

Even in 2023, when critics argued that Buhari was not fully committed to the All Progressives Congress (APC) campaign, his influence still secured President Bola Tinubu a significant portion of Northern votes.

But with Buhari?s death in July 2025, the political landscape has shifted dramatically. For the first time since 2015, the APC faces a general election without its talisman. And as 2027 approaches, the battle to inherit Buhari?s Northern bloc, his base of loyal supporters and influential allies, is intensifying.

Tinubu?s bid to claim Buhari?s base

President Tinubu moved swiftly to honour Buhari in death. He directed Vice President Kashim Shettima to accompany the late leader?s body from London to Katsina, presided over a state burial in Daura, declared a national holiday in his memory, and even renamed the University of Maiduguri after him.

Since then, Tinubu has been working assiduously to consolidate Buhari?s bloc. Analysts note that his outreach to Buhari?s political family and Northern networks has been deliberate, if not strategic.

A few weeks ago, Tinubu met with prominent members of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and the Buhari Group. Acknowledging frustration among loyalists who have not yet been appointed, he appealed for patience.

?I couldn?t appoint everybody that I could have appointed, thank you for your patience till now,? the President said.

?I still have some slots for ambassadorial positions that too many people are craving for, but it?s not easy stitching together those names.?

His visit to Kaduna last weekend added fuel to the speculation. While he attended the wedding of Nasirudeen Yari, son of Senator Abdul?aziz Yari, the symbolism of his courtesy call on Aisha Buhari, the widow of the late president, was impossible to miss.

Presented as a gesture of respect, the trip carried political undertones. Was Tinubu genuinely honouring Buhari?s memory, or carefully positioning himself to inherit fragments of his political base?

Not everyone was convinced by Tinubu?s overtures. The African Democratic Congress (ADC) had earlier accused the president of exploiting Buhari?s death to score political points.

?The choreographed Federal Executive Council (FEC) tribute, complete with a publicized appearance by our late President?s grieving son, was not a demonstration of genuine respect,? the ADC said in a statement.

?It was a calculated public relations stunt by an unpopular government, carefully stage-managed to distract Nigerians from the administration?s deepening failures and to rewrite history while the nation mourns.?

Atiku and northern card

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, long seen as Buhari?s northern rival, is also positioning himself as the region?s political heir. Analysts argue that Atiku is capitalizing on economic hardship and growing northern disenchantment with Tinubu to present himself as the natural successor to Buhari?s mantle.

He has been rallying Northern elites, courting Buhari?s allies, and meeting influential figures. His recent engagement with Isa Ali Pantami, Buhari?s former communications minister, underscored this strategy. Pantami, known for his religious influence, remains a significant voice in the region.

Interestingly, Peter Obi also sought an audience with Pantami, in what observers interpreted as his attempt to forge a close political relationship.

El-Rufai?s calculated rebellion

But the battle for Buhari?s bloc isn?t just between Tinubu and Atiku. Former Kaduna governor Nasir el-Rufai, once a key ally of both Buhari and Tinubu, has emerged as a wildcard.

Denied a ministerial slot in Tinubu?s cabinet controversially, El-Rufai has grown increasingly critical of Tinubu?s administration, a stance that has only boosted his popularity among northern youths who admire his bluntness. His defection from the APC, he revealed, came after consulting with Buhari himself.

?I am an APC member and I like to be addressed as such. I will try to popularize the party by all means,? Buhari had said in March, reaffirming his loyalty to the ruling party despite El-Rufai?s exit.

Buhari?s absence has left a political vacuum in the North. His name, his networks, and his bloc remain powerful currency for 2027. But unlike in the past, no single figure has yet emerged as the uncontested leader of the Northern vote.

For Tinubu, securing Buhari?s bloc may be the difference between re-election and defeat. For Atiku, Obi, and El-Rufai, it is the gateway to power.

The struggle is less about Buhari the man and more about Buhari the myth, the enduring symbol of northern political unity.

Whoever inherits that bloc will have a formidable edge in 2027. But as the race intensifies, one truth is clear: Buhari may be gone, but his shadow still defines the battle for Nigeria?s future.

Ahead of the 2027 general election, the core of Buhari?s men are spearheading the opposition bloc to challenge Tinubu?s re-election bid.

For now, there is division among leaders and politicians of the defunct CPC bloc, with one faction loyal to President Tinubu, while another has pledged allegiance to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar.

Across the country, many chieftains of the CPC bloc within the ruling party are now divided along various interests.

The core of the group loyal to Tinubu is headed by Umaru Tanko Al-Makura, the former governor of Nasarawa, who has pledged to support the President?s re-election bid.

Similarly, there is a faction of the defunct CPC reportedly led by El-Rufai and Malami, and they have joined the opposition.

Perhaps, a clear sign of division within Buhari?s men and CPC bloc was seen recently, when Atiku hosted some chieftains of the CPC loyal to him under the umbrella of former CPC state chairmen at his Abuja residence.

Atiku, in a post on his Facebook page, said the meeting, held last Wednesday, resolved to form a partnership and strong force that would oust President Ahmed Tinubu in 2027.

The former vice president, who also posted a video of the meeting, showed some of the former chairmen of the CPC declaring their support for him and expressing their readiness to join the coalition party, the ADC.

Earlier in the year, many of Buhari?s close associates in the CPC bloc had complained of being sidelined in the affairs of the ruling party.

They equally expressed frustration about the governance style of President Tinubu, policies, and joined the opposition politicians? move to form a coalition to unseat him.

For them, such a move was necessary to salvage the count, and especially for the sake of their political future.

The Buhari?s men, who joined the coalition that fused into the ADC recently, include: Rotimi Amaechi, former minister of Transportation; Abubakar Malami, former Attorney General and Minister of Justice; Rauf Aregbesola; Solomon Dalung, former minister of Youths and Sports, as well as Lauretta Onochie, former media aide and board chairman of the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC).

Apart from the ministers and aides, other prominent APC leaders who held political offices during Buhari?s tenure that also joined ADC include Nasir El-Rufai, former governor of Kaduna State; John Oyegun, former APC national chairman; and John Akpanudoedehe, former APC national secretary.

Aregbesola was a close ally of Tinubu for years until the duo fell apart, and no one has been able to reconcile them.

Aregbesola worked closely with the late Buhari.

In the last few weeks, the former Osun governor has been busy inaugurating chapters of the ADC in Lagos State, saying that the party would defeat Tinubu in 2027 and win Lagos.

Amaechi, on his part, has been a figure in the formation of the opposition coalition.

He has declared his readiness to challenge Tinubu in 2027, noting that he was in the opposition because of worsening economic hardship in the country.

?If the government is failing the country, you don?t just go along because you?re in the same party. You know that?s not right?people are dying. People are starving. I myself am feeling the effects of hunger,? he said.

Analysts react

Reacting to the issue, Kunle Okunade, a political analyst, said it is obvious that Buhari?s men and the CPC bloc divided ahead of 2027, stressing that President Tinubu and his people are not comfortable working with some individuals.

?Of course, it is clear some of them know that President Tinubu does not want to work with them, and they have already taken their position by joining the opposition.

?It is what politics is about, especially here in Nigeria. You are to go where your bread is buttered,? he said.

Similarly, Temitope Musowo, a political analyst, pointed out that the current division within the CPC bloc is a disadvantage to the ruling party and Tinubu?s re-election bid, stressing that the millions of votes Tinubu got in 2023 from them would go to opposition candidates.

He further stressed there may be more realignments before the 2027 general election.

?The current situation is a minus to Tinubu and the APC. They said 12 million votes are at stake; those votes would be divided now. (BusinessDay)

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