The eventual defection of Enugu State governor, Peter Mbah, suggests not only new worries for political alliances in the state, but also the ultimate extinguishing of the Peoples Democratic Party?s (PDP) presence in South-East and a fresh recalibration of the zone?s 2027 calculations, LEO SOBECHI reports.

It is no longer if, but when.

Findings by The Guardian show that Governor Peter Ndubuisi Mbah is on his way to the broom-waving All Progressives Congress (APC). Signs that the governor was porting emerged after he registered his absence at the pre-national convention strategy meeting of the PDP Governors? Forum in Gusau, Zamfara State.

Apart from his absence from the Gusau meeting with his colleagues, Mbah?s name was replaced with that of ?as the Secretary of the PDP National Convention Committee (NCC) for the party?s elective convention, also known as Ibadan 2025. Feelers revealed that Mbah?s defection, which became imperative shortly after his Akwa Ibom State counterpart, Umo Eno, happened, predated the current wave of defections, as it has its roots in the disputed March 18 Enugu State gubernatorial election.

Recall that on March 21, 2023, former Enugu State governor, Senator Chimaroke Nnamani, authorised the Ebeano political structure, which he founded in 1999, to switch allegiance from the PDP to the ruling APC, in a move to consolidate political alliance with Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, who had just won the presidential ballot.

Announcing the switch, the chairman of Ebeano political grouping in the state, Chief Emmanuel Okwor, had explained that all members of the political family were consulted and agreed with the leader?s position that the collaboration was not only in the interest of the people, but also expected to serve the interest and welfare of the group within the APC.

Okwor had stated: ?This alliance with APC is to consolidate the partnership with President-elect, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, to achieve good governance in the country.? In the lead up to the 2023 presidential election, Senator Nnamani was at the forefront supporting Tinubu?s presidential aspiration, even as he downgraded Mr Peter Obi?s ambition for lack of nationwide acceptability.

Reunion of old rivals

THE buzz in town as Governor Mbah finalises plans to join the APC is how far his decision would affect old political rivals and stamp out the feeble opposition that existed against the PDP in the state. Two years into his first tenure, Governor Nnamani, the founder of Ebeano, fell out of favour with his political benefactor, Senator Jim Nwobodo, who also orchestrated a political move to deny him (Nnamani) a second term in office.

As the two leaders from Enugu East clashed, Nnamani?s former Governorship Campaign Director General, Ugochukwu Agballah, from Enugu West Senatorial District, plotted his way for the governorship. Determined to contest against his former principal, Agballah, who had resigned his appointment from the Nnamani administration, founded a counter-political grouping called Ebeaneje (Journeying to the Promised Land).

While Nnamani deployed the power of incumbency to dislodge the former governor of old Anambra State, Nwobodo, from PDP, Agballah established a political mobilisation wing called Oganiru Enugu State, which absorbed tendencies loyal to Nwobodo. However, sensing that Agballah was controlling Oganiru for his governorship ambition, Nwobodo moved his supporters to the United Nigeria Peoples Party (UNPP) on which platform he eventually contested the 2003 presidential poll.

Twenty years after that falling out, Agballah, who contested the governorship of the state on the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA, 2003) and the Accord Party (AP, 2007), is currently the APC chairman for Enugu State. It is therefore left to be seen how Governor Mbah, who was a member of Oganiru Enugu and former Governor Nnamani, will affect the leadership of the party under Agballah.

The puzzle gets more intriguing against the background that upon joining the party and becoming the APC state chairman with the backing of Imo State governor,Hope Uzodimma, Agballah had suspended former Senate President Ken Nnamani, who had fallen out with Governor Nnamani in the PDP.

As a precursor to his entry into APC, Governor Mbah energised former disgruntled members of the party that fell by the wayside upon Agballah?s emergence. One of such former APC arrowheads is Ben Nwoye, a former state chairman, whose membership and leadership were steeped in disputations and doubtful loyalty. Recently, Nwoye led some so-called South-East groups to endorse President Tinubu and Governor Mbah for a second term.

The activities of old APC members like Nwoye and all those suspended or expelled by the Agballah-led State Working Committee of the party have thrown up concerns as to whether Mbah would experience a similar stonewall extended to Osun State governor, Ademola Nurudeen Adeleke, by party stalwarts.

However, a founding member of APC and former Director-General of the Voice of Nigeria (DG, VON), Mr Osita Okechukwu, told The Guardian that instead of ruffling feathers, Governor Mbah?s membership of the party would strengthen the structure and unite support for President Tinubu.

Okechukwu disclosed that ever since he got wind of the governor?s planned entry into APC, he consulted widely with notable party members in Enugu State, remarking that the majority said that they have no objection to Mbah?s entry into APC.

While noting that Mbah has become a unique brand, the former DG VON stated: ?Most importantly, it has been our tradition to welcome those who voluntarily elected in their wisdom to join our great party. It is on record that we welcomed political heavyweights like His Excellencies Ken Nnamani and Sullivan Chime, and a host of other eminent sons and daughters of the state, such as Uche Nnaji, Minister of Innovation, Science and Technology.?

On the likely political implication of the incumbent governor joining the party vis-?-vis the fact of a former gubernatorial contender and state chairman, Okechukwu said that apart from breaking APC?s jinx of occupying the Lion Building- Enugu Government House- the governor will be the game changer in 2027 based on his strides in infrastructural development that have made him a saleable brand.

On whether Mbah?s coming will alter the party?s leadership in the state as anticipated, Okechukwu remarked: ?The tradition simulated by the PDP in the last two decades, which is also adopted by our great party, is that a defecting governor is usually handed over the party structure on a 60 to 40 per cent ratio. Governor Mbah?s case will not be different, and he has every right to remove or retain Ugo Agballah, who was a founding member of the PDP. One doesn?t envisage any crisis, because we are importing a great brand.?

To be or not to be

FORMER Auditor of PDP, Ray Nnaji, dismissed Mbah?s plan to defect to APC, stressing that the governor would be committing political hara-kiri if he eventually joins the ruling party. Nnaji noted that PDP has been the traditional or dominant party, adding that the governor seems to be running away from the burden of excluding those who worked for his electoral victory in March 2023.

Speaking in a radio programme in Enugu, Nnaji accused Governor Mbah of sidelining all PDP leaders who helped to ensure the party?s electoral triumph against the Obidient wave from the Labour Party (LP) and its gubernatorial contender, Hon. Chijioke Edeoga. According to the former national auditor, virtually all PDP stakeholders in Enugu State who vigorously campaigned for Mbah were treated with ignominy and disdain.

?As soon as Mbah was sworn in as governor, he began using Zoom to interact with stakeholders. He did not want to see anybody; he would not meet with the stakeholders of the party. We worked for him to win,? Nnaji bemoaned, claiming that the governor?s desperate plans to join the APC were to embrace federal might for a second term mandate.

Reminded that Governor Mbah is being hailed as a performer, Nnaji disagreed, pointing out that the governor was merely embarking on prestige projects that lack a proper foundation or structure for sustainability. Nnaji pointed at the much-talked-about Smart School initiative of the Mbah administration as evidence of poorly articulated policies, adding that the proper thing was to uplift and renovate existing schools that were in various stages of dilapidation.

But it was gathered that Mbah?s defection was propelled by a purported conversation with President Tinubu during the collation of the governorship election result when PDP and LP tangled over the balloting in Nkanu East Local Government Area. Coming at the last council to be collated, LP?s party agent, Dr Eugene Edeoga, cried out that the more than 30,000 votes recorded in favour of PDP were ostensibly orchestrated outside the BVAS (Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) to cancel out the high voting numbers of Nsukka Local Government Area. The LGA collation officer, who claimed that he relied on what the polling officials gave to him, was asked to step aside, even though he explained that the BVAS machine malfunctioned.

Multiple sources told The Guardian that it was amid the impasse and suspense over the cancellation or upholding of the Nkanu East Local Government poll numbers that the President-elect was approached to break the tie. So, instead of cancelling the ballot as it did in Adamawa State, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) intervened and, after some addition and subtraction, PDP?s Mba was left with 16,956 to beat LP?s Edeoga, who reportedly garnered 1,864.

Clash of ?Tinubu?s boys?

IT is against the background of what was said to have transpired during the 2023 governorship that stakeholders worry that Mbah?s entry to the APC might spark fresh political revisions. For instance, it was gathered that President Tinubu had enjoined Governor Mbah to bring the LP contender, Edeoga, close with a view to supporting him for Senatorial representation.

Further, the President was said to have pushed forward the idea that Mbah should serve for one term, reminding him that the current Minister of Science, Technology and Innovation, Geoffrey Uche Nnaji, ?is my boy and deserves to be governor on the APC platform.?

Consequently, in a bid to downplay the offer to serve for just one term, Governor Mbah?s contacts in the Presidency were said to have advised that he (Mbah) should take advantage of the bourgeoning Southern solidarity for President Tinubu?s second term, to join the APC.

Going by President Tinubu?s rejection of cross-party support, it is obvious that Mbah?s defection to APC could brighten his chances of running for a second term, but end up stoking up new contests.

At the meeting with the President, Mbah was reminded, ?Look, I don?t go for people who cannot deliver. Even if you?re my boy or my friend, and you cannot deliver, I will not go for you. The reason I am saying that Nnaji has to be governor is that I know he will deliver.

?Peter, you have done well, but I know Uche Nnaji will deliver too. That?s what I?m saying, even if you?re my son, if I know you can?t deliver, I won?t go for you,? the President reportedly told the Enugu State governor. He was said to have dismissed Mbah?s attempt to write off the Minister?s performance.

According to the Presidency source, Mr President countered, saying: ?You said you can do eight years and then support the Minister to do another eight years? With the zoning you people do religiously in Enugu, how is that possible??

Although the governor was said to have assured the President that he would use his work in Enugu to ensure that the zoning thing is respected, it is therefore left to be seen how Nnaji and APC old warhorses, including Governor Hope Uzodimma, would react to the gambit.

The behind-the-scenes powerplay between Governor Mbah and Nnaji led the Ministry of Science and Technology to turn to Owerri to construct the technology hub after Enugu frustrated the effort to have it sited in the state. Mbah, it was gathered, did not allow it because he felt it would be like empowering one?s competition.

Given his closeness with Uzodimma right from their days in PDP, immediately the Minister hinted at building the Technology Hub in Imo State, the governor (Uzodinma) gave him lands to build hubs, which Imo people say that if care is not taken, their state might end up becoming the Silicon Valley of Nigeria.

But, in the event that Mbah takes Enugu State into APC, he may have to reconcile with his political godfather, Senator Chimaroke Nnamani, in order to square up with Uzodimma?s influence in the party, particularly given Nnamani?s long-term political relationship with President Tinubu.

It could be recalled that alongside Nnamani, Tinubu founded the Southern Governors? Forum, through which the issue of fiscal federalism-Tinubu?s brainchild-was canvassed. Interestingly, the land on which Governor Mbah put up the headquarters of his Pinnacle Oil and Gas Limited in Lekki was allocated by Tinubu to the former Enugu State governor.

And, as Uzodimma?s decision to line up behind Senator Ahmed Lawan in the contest for the APC presidential ticket in 2022 still riles the President, it will be seen whether Mbah?s entry into APC may present the President a golden opportunity to give it back to the Imo State governor, who is also the Chairman of Progressive Governors? Forum.

When the last man standing in PDP caves in to APC?s move for Southern Solidarity, how that move would trigger other political calculations and relations would not only be interesting, but also shape up the 2027 battle to come. (The Guardian)

Update news