With less than 15 months to the 2027 presidential poll, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, yesterday, renewed interest in appropriating the legendary 12.7 million ballots usually credited to the late President Muhammadu Buhari, when he met with a faction of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) founded by the immediate past Nigerian leader.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, yesterday, said the Federal Government would no longer resort to borrowing to meet its financial obligations as it now meets its revenue target.

The disclosure came on the back of what appears like an information blackout on the government’s fiscal condition. The last time the government published the budget implementation report (BIR), a comprehensive report on the government revenue and expenditure with details on expenditure items matched with budget projects, was in the third quarter of last year.

The previous administration, even with the burden of alleged fiscal recklessness it carried for eight years, published the BIR religiously quarterly.

Today, Nigerians depend on snippets of public disclosures by public officials, albeit conflicting in many cases, for scanty information on the government’s fiscal performance.

But stressing that Nigeria’s fiscal direction is now anchored on prudent management, not debt, the President declared: “We have met our revenue target. Nigeria is not borrowing again. Nobody is trading pieces of paper for an exchange rate anymore. The naira is stabilizing. What we need now is to build the infrastructure for export and import, create jobs and opportunities for our people. That is my guarantee.”

Indeed, the administration has improved its revenue profile. In the first half (H1) of the year, the government said it collected a total of N14.27 trillion in tax revenues, a leap of 43 per cent when compared with N9.98 trillion it realized in the first half of 2024.

According to data shared by the Presidency, non-oil tax grew by 44.2 per cent to N10.64 trillion in the period compared to N7.37 trillion recorded in the comparative period in 2024.

By the current horizontal revenue sharing formula, the Federal Government gets 52.68 per cent or N7.5 trillion from the total pool of taxes, which are shared among the three tiers of government.

In the H1, The Guardian reported that Nigeria lost about N2.5 trillion in unrealized oil revenue target with crude below $75 budget benchmark and around 1.5 million barrels per day (mbpd), a 25 per cent discount of the N2.06mbpd the fiscal document of the year envisaged.

Today, oil trades below $70 per barrel on average, or about $93 of the target. Production has increased moderately at 1.7mpbd as of July. But it remains far from hitting the critical threshold to push up the Federal Government’s equity in the N55-trillion budget for the current year to N40.89 trillion.

The Federal Government needs to increase last year’s revenue by over two folds to hit the revenue target, which the President said the government has done. That will require a 100 per cent performance of both non-oil and oil revenue streams.

But oil production and prices are already faltering. Since Tinubu assumed office, non-oil has posted over 100 per cent performance though not enough to meet the hole created by the volatile oil sale.

And supposing the government raises N40.89 trillion set for the year, there is a N14.1 trillion fiscal hole the government said it would borrow to plug.

Indeed, the effective fiscal deficit estimate could be much higher with the government putting the projected joint proceeds from “independent revenues” and “other revenues” at N11.02 trillion.

Eight months into the year, the full 2024 budget implementation report (BIR) is not ready, a departure from the fiscal culture Tinubu inherited.

In the first three quarters of the year, the Federal Government earned a total of N14.06 trillion in retained revenue, pushing the annualized performance at N18.7 trillion, 33 per cent above the N14.07 trillion generated in 2023.

If the government increases its earnings by a similar margin this year, the total available fund for financing the budget will be N24 trillion. But the government may be hoping to replicate the 2023 ‘magic’ when the retained revenue more than doubled from N6.9 trillion to over N14 trillion.

If that happens, it may come near N40 trillion, a little below the benchmark. But the fiscal dynamics are different from what they were in 2023 – the naira is stable, which the President attested to. Other macroeconomic variables that triggered a spike in revenue are relatively stable as well.

The government would necessarily alter these baselines to meet its near N41 trillion revenue target and suppose that to mark for the fiscal deficit to stop borrowing to fund its obligations in line with the year’s appropriation. Otherwise, the spending outlays would need to be reduced drastically.

Sadly, it has only N23.3 trillion capital votes to play with to scale down its spending. With debt on the rise in recent months, it may outrun the N14.32 trillion allocated to debt financing. The N13.64 trillion recurrent expenditure may also need to be retained or expanded.

On food security, the President announced that his government would roll out a nationwide mechanization programme, with farm centres established across all regions to boost productivity, ensure food sovereignty and lift millions out of poverty.

“Our path to food security is clear. Every region will have a mechanized farm centre. We are committed to removing poverty from our land, and that is the work we have already started,” he said.

Baring his thoughts on the partisan disputations in the polity, the President urged his supporters not to be distracted by political noise ahead of 2027, emphasizing that his focus remains on reforms that will guarantee prosperity for all Nigerians.

His words: “Don’t let anybody threaten you with uncertainty. We know the direction we are going, and we are certain of success. The legacy you will inherit from me is total commitment to justice, transparency and progress. At the end of this journey, it will be a house of joy and prosperity for all.”

Earlier, the visitors, who were led by the former Nasarawa State governor, Senator Tanko Al-Makura, assured the President that the group would deliver massive support for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2027 general elections.

The former governor informed the President that the CPC bloc within the APC remained firmly behind his administration and would mobilize nationwide to ensure the party’s victory in the next election.

“We are with you in loyalty, in person, and in purpose. May Almighty God grant you the wisdom and strength to continue leading our nation,” Al-Makura assured.

HE president’s remarks about improvement in the nation’s fiscal position came at the heels of former Kaduna State governor, Mallam Nasir Ahmad el-Rufai’s claim that the administration has failed to address the socio-economic challenges of the country, including security of lives and property.

El-Rufai, while appearing on a Channels Television programme, Sunday, had claimed that the security situation in the country had worsened instead of improving, alleging that the government was paying bandits stipends and giving them food hand outs in the name of a kinetic approach to fighting criminality.

He disclosed that President Tinubu would be voted out in 2027, stressing that, having done the political mathematics, he found out that the incumbent has no pathway to victory in the election, even as he declared his membership of the coalition of opposition on the ADC platform.

The former Kaduna State governor, alongside the former Attorney General of the Federation (AGF), Abubakar Malami, and former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Babachir David Lawal, who claim to be closest allies of Buhari, moved away from the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as part of the coalition of opposition to President Tinubu’s re-election bid.

In the ongoing coalition arrangement, the CPC group led by the trio of el-Rufai, Malami and Lawal, boast as the nucleus and bonafide Buharideens, even as they describe the splinter headed by Al-Makura as recessive characters with less electoral and political worth.

Speaking on the visit by the Al-Makura faction to the President, the former SGF, Lawal, said that it was a no event, stressing that there was nothing to comment about a group of hungry people, who are looking for food to eat.

“They have validated the fact that there is hunger in the land, the economy is in bad shape, and former big men are going about scavenging for food. So, I am not interested in those visiting Tinubu or anybody. We need to rescue the country.”

While commending Tinubu for steering the country through challenging economic times and for sustaining peace and stability, the former Nasarawa state Governor also lauded the President for honouring the memory of their late leader and mentor, former President Muhammadu Buhari.

He recalled how, long before the historic merger that birthed the APC in 2013, the President and Buhari worked as two visionaries, whose political partnership provided the foundation for justice, equity, and national renewal.

He said: “Mr. President, you and President Muhammadu Buhari shared more than a political alliance; you shared a vision of a Nigeria built on justice, economic sovereignty, and good governance. Together, you conceptualized and built a platform that remains our pride and our cause.”

he CPC family, he added, comprising former governors, ministers, lawmakers, women leaders and party executives, would work tirelessly to consolidate Tinubu’s reforms and sustain the APC legacy ahead of 2027.

In his remarks, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Tajudeen Abbas, declared that the CPC bloc remains intact and solidly behind the President, even as he dismissed suggestions that the bloc was fragmented or estranged, as, according to him, over 90 per cent of CPC’s pioneer leaders remained active and loyal.

The Speaker stated: “Indeed, today is the very first time that former members of the CPC have gathered in such large numbers to visit our President, to show support and appreciation for what he has been doing. I want to seize this opportunity, Mr. President, to assure you of the unconditional support of all former members of the CPC.”

While recalling President Tinubu’s partnership with Buhari in 2010, which eventually paved the way for Buhari’s presidency, Speaker Abbas commended the President for the unprecedented respect shown to Buhari during his passing, noting the state support accorded to his family and the President’s personal involvement.

“CPC in every state will go back home and mobilize support for Asiwaju. That movement will cascade down to local government areas, wards, and units. Insha Allah, CPC members will be at the forefront of ensuring your re-election in 2027 so you can continue the good work you are doing,” Abbas promised.

Accompanying the former Nasarawa State governor were high profile stakeholders that included Barr. Abdulraheem Adebayo Shittu, former Minister of Communications, Architect Waziri Bulama, former APC National Secretary, Prof. Haruna Hima, former House of Representatives member, Hon. Garba Datti Mohammed, former Deputy Minority Whip, House of Representatives and former Director General of Voice of Nigeria, Mr Osita Okechukwu.

Others are, Ibrahim Baba, former CPC governorship candidate and Federal Commissioner, RMAFC, Mary Efere, former CPC governorship candidate, Chris Bukuma, Adamawa politician and CPC stalwart, Farouk Adamu Aliyu, former governorship candidate, Comrade Richard, pioneer CPC National Organizing Secretary, Raza Zakari, former CPC National Vice Chairman, Lucy Ibe, former CPC National Organizing Committee member, Oyama, former Deputy National Secretary and APC merger negotiator, Ayuba Baba, former CPC protocol officer (2003-2015), Edwemba, CPC leader from Edo State, and Hon. Jawa, former House of Representatives member.

They were joined by other former commissioners, advisers, national officers, and women leaders of the Buhari Support Organisation, as well as ex-members of the CPC National Executive Council. (The Guardian)

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