THE People’s Democratic Party’s decision to zone its 2027 presidential ticket to the South has changed the shape of the race.

By shutting out northern aspirants, who have long dominated the field, the party has turned attention firmly to its southern leaders.

Three names now stand at the centre of this contest: former president Goodluck Jonathan, former Anambra governor and 2023 Labour Party candidate Peter Obi, and Oyo State governor Seyi Makinde.

Each offers distinct strengths, weaknesses, and routes to the ticket, while figures such as Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim remain present in the background, carrying symbolic weight.

Meanwhile, potential running mates to the PDP presidential candidate in the 2027 race, mainly from the North, are emerging.

Goodluck Jonathan: Consensus and the Burden of the Past

Jonathan’s name still carries weight in Nigerian politics. He governed from 2010 to 2015, leaving behind a legacy that is both respected and criticised. He is especially admired for conceding defeat gracefully in 2015, a gesture that strengthened Nigeria’s democratic image and earned him lasting international recognition.

Within the PDP, his neutrality in internal disputes has helped him retain his standing as a respected elder and potential consensus candidate who could steady the party in turbulent times.

Yet his weaknesses are equally clear. Approaching seventy, he risks being seen as yesterday’s man in a country where voters, particularly the youth, increasingly demand generational change.

His support in the North has always been fragile, a weakness that contributed to his 2015 loss.

If he were to return as the PDP’s candidate, the APC would likely revive familiar criticisms of corruption and insecurity during his presidency.

Jonathan’s route to the ticket is therefore less about popular momentum and more about elite consensus; governors and party elders who may value unity above all else.

Peter Obi: The Outsider Within

Peter Obi represents the opposite pole. Once a PDP stalwart, he defected to the Labour Party in 2022 and ran a groundbreaking insurgent campaign in 2023.

His credibility, frugal lifestyle, and reputation for integrity struck a chord with urban professionals, students, and Nigerians in the Diaspora, giving rise to the ‘Obidient’ movement — the most organic grassroots mobilisation in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic. He won decisively in the South-East, carried Lagos and Abuja, and made notable inroads in the North-Central.

Obi’s greatest strength is his ability to energise the electorate in a way no other PDP figure currently can.

On sheer national electability, he stands out as the party’s most formidable weapon against the APC.

Yet within the PDP, Obi remains divisive. Many still view his 2022 defection as an act of betrayal, and his return would unsettle governors and powerbrokers wary of being overshadowed.

His support in the North also remains patchy, and convincing delegates that he can break through where he fell short in 2023 will be no easy task.

Seyi Makinde: The Establishment’s Bet

Seyi Makinde represents the establishment’s preference for loyalty and continuity.

At fifty-seven, the Oyo State governor offers generational renewal while still rooted in party traditions. He is one of the few PDP leaders to hold ground in the South-West, where APC dominance is strong, and his re-election in 2023 confirmed his local strength.

Known as a pragmatic technocrat, Makinde’s steady loyalty has endeared him to PDP elders.

The convention’s micro-zoning to the South-West, combined with the choice of Ibadan as the venue, strongly suggests he is being positioned as a frontrunner.

Yet Makinde’s national profile remains limited.

Unlike Jonathan or Obi, he lacks broad name recognition outside his region.

His rivalry with Nyesom Wike could also prove a stumbling block, as Wike’s faction still wields significant influence over delegates.

Makinde embodies stability and institutional discipline, but his challenge is transforming that into the kind of national momentum needed to secure the ticket and tackle President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim: Symbolism in Loyalty

While not in the same electoral class, Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim remains a principled PDP figure whose symbolic importance should not be overlooked.

His presidential ambitions have always been more intellectual than populist, and he has consistently deferred to party consensus.

In a field dominated by heavyweights and insurgents, Olawepo-Hashim offers ideological steadiness and loyalty at a time when major constitutional crises have tested the PDP.

He is unlikely to secure the presidential ticket, but his influence in internal negotiations could prove valuable.

Running Mate Calculations

With the presidential ticket zoned to the South, the PDP’s vice-presidential slot will inevitably go North.

The choice of running mate could be decisive in helping the eventual candidate overcome internal fractures and appeal to the wider electorate.

For Jonathan, the requirement is obvious.

As a South-South Christian elder statesman, he would need a northern Muslim with strong institutional roots to balance his ticket.

Bala Mohammed, governor of Bauchi and chair of the PDP Governors’ Forum, stands out as the most obvious fit.

His loyalty to the party and credibility among governors make him a stabilising force.

Ibrahim Dankwambo, former Gombe governor and now senator, also fits this mould with his technocratic credentials and relatively clean reputation.

Either would provide Jonathan with the northern anchor he needs.

For Obi, the running mate decision is even more delicate.

His popularity among youths and urban professionals must be matched by someone who commands respect in rural northern constituencies.

Bala Mohammed again emerges as a natural partner, particularly as he has acknowledged Obi’s value as political capital for the PDP.

Dankwambo would reinforce Obi’s technocratic appeal, while Aminu Tambuwal; though linked to coalition talks with the ADC, could be a strong choice if he fully recommits to the party.

His Sokoto base and political skill would complement Obi’s outsider energy. In each case, the deputy would serve as a bridge between Obi’s mass movement and the PDP’s internal machinery, especially in the North.

For Makinde, the calculation is similar. As a South-West Christian technocrat, he too would need a northern Muslim of national standing. Bala Mohammed offers gravitas and governor-level experience, while Dankwambo provides generational balance and technical expertise.

A Makinde–Dankwambo ticket, in particular, would symbolise renewal: a younger, technocratic generation seeking to reposition the PDP against the APC’s entrenched figures.

Even Olawepo-Hashim could feature in creative permutations.

Though from the North-Central and not the party’s traditional northern strongholds, his selection would highlight loyalty and stability, values the PDP may want to project after years of defections.

Such a move would be unconventional, but not implausible for a party long shaped by compromise choices.

The Comparative Outlook

The three main aspirants offer sharply different strategies for the PDP.

Jonathan represents internal consensus, but risks being seen by voters as a figure of the past.

Obi brings unmatched national appeal and grassroots energy, yet his return could unsettle party insiders and raise doubts about his strength in the North.

Makinde embodies loyalty and establishment continuity, but his limited recognition beyond the South-West restricts his momentum.

Olawepo-Hashim is unlikely to mount a serious challenge, yet he reflects the ideological steadiness and principles valued by PDP elders.

Conclusion

The PDP’s decision to zone its ticket to the South has narrowed the field but left the party facing a fundamental dilemma. Jonathan offers safety, Obi brings mass appeal, and Makinde represents loyalty. Olawepo-Hashim, though largely symbolic, reflects the steadiness of principles the PDP craves after years of turbulence.

The choice of running mate from the North will sharpen these contrasts and could decide whether the party presents a united, credible ticket or once again falters under the weight of its own divisions.

The PDP’s survival as a truly national force may rest on which path it takes, and whether its delegates decide that unity, electability, or loyalty is the real currency in the fight for 2027. (Sunday Vanguard)

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