Despite its prolonged internal disagreement, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) still remains the de facto leading opposition party in Nigeria. Though the country has lately witnessed some political thrills and spills on the emerging opposition coalition now clothed in the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the results of the recent legislative by-elections across several states reaffirmed the weight of PDP as the second dominant party after the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

With its combined numerical strength, dominant presence in the legislative assembly, governorship and national spread, it has the capacity to give the APC a run in the 2027 presidential election. Currently, the PDP holds the second-highest number of seats in both the Senate (37 seats) and the House of Representatives (119 seats), far more than any other opposition party. This legislative power gives it a significant platform to critique and challenge the ruling party’s policies. The party also governs a significant number of states, which provides it with a vast network of political and financial resources, as well as a direct line to millions of voters. Controlling these states allows the party to maintain its grassroots machinery and influence across different geopolitical zones. Its political base is equally spread across all the six geopolitical zones, unlike other opposition parties whose strength may be concentrated in a specific region. This national presence gives it a foundational advantage in any presidential race, which requires broad support from across the country.

On paper, by every measure of political strength, the PDP has the capacity to mount a formidable challenge to the APC. Whether it can translate that capacity into a winning reality will depend on its ability to overcome its internal divisions and present a united and credible alternative to the Nigerian electorate.

But at present, the PDP is still a fractured opposition party. The party faces unresolved internal crises that could hinder its ability to fully realise this potential. The lingering resentments from the 2023 election, particularly the controversy over the zoning of the presidency has just been resolved. Following the outcome of its NEC meeting on Monday, the leadership passed a resolution, zoning the presidency to the South, while retaining chairmanship in the North. This initiative marks a significant departure from its previous disposition to the clamour for power shift arrangement. The party’s ability to unite its various factions and present a cohesive front under the new agreement will be the ultimate test of its readiness for 2027.

Search for unifying candidate

In recent times, the party has been in a desperate search for a candidate who has the national appeal to fly its presidential ticket. Up till date, it is still without a clear and unifying figure. Rather, there is fear that the ongoing shopping process and the debate over who has what it takes to win could create new rifts and weaken its overall capacity to challenge the ruling party.

The lingering crisis the PDP has had to contend with over the last two years reflects the party’s difficult position in seeking a winning formula after its 2023 electoral loss. Its continued struggles with internal democracy, factionalism like the G-5 Governors’ rebellion in the last election cycle, and its inability to present a united front are a major reason for its recent electoral losses. These internal conflicts have weakened its ability to effectively challenge the ruling party. The party’s defeat in 2023 was largely a result of the rebellion of the G-5 Governors who insisted on a power shift to the south. Having learnt some lessons, the party is now keenly aware that its next candidate must be from the South. The party’s recent decision to zone the presidential ticket to the South is a direct attempt to resolve this crisis and open the door for a unifying Southern candidate – a figure with the charisma and political clout to unite its fractured base. This individual is expected to be a bridge between the North and South divide and command the loyalty of the party’s power brokers and state governors.

At a crossroads

Currently, the PDP is at a crossroads, trying to strike a delicate balance between the divergent interest groups, on one hand, and the old guards and a fresh face who can give it a new lease of life, on the other hand. The party has been criticised for recycling old political figures. At this crucial time, the leadership is seeking a candidate who can break from its old guard and present a fresh face to the electorate, particularly the youth who can inject new ideas into the party to make it attractive to the populace. A younger, more dynamic candidate with a reputation for integrity and performance; one who would be seen as a strong asset; who could appeal to voters who are disillusioned with the political establishment. This has kept the party busy, looking for a candidate with a demonstrable track record of success. While some are looking in the direction of a governor with a reputation for delivering on infrastructure, education, or economic reforms to be a prime candidate, others are making frantic effort to drag former President Goodluck Jonathan into the race, believing that they could point to his concrete achievements to win over a sceptical electorate. For now, the party is not in the enviable position of having a clear and popular front-runner. Instead, it is facing the difficult challenge of navigating a complex process of political brokering and internal reform to find a candidate who embodies the qualities it desperately needs to reclaim power. The success of this shopping mission will be the ultimate determinant of the party’s relevance in 2027.

Speculations

Caught in this dilemma, a lot of speculations are already going on. Several prominent figures from the Southern region are now being touted as potential contenders for the party’s presidential ticket in 2027. While no one has formally declared his candidacy, a few individuals like Goodluck Jonathan and Seyi Makinde, are being widely speculated to be eyeing the party’s ticket.

Bauchi State governor, Bala Mohammed, has asserted that the PDP is also looking in the direction of other politicians like Peter Obi and Rotimi Amaechi as those that might fly the party’s flag in the 2027 presidential election.

“Certainly, former President Jonathan is one of the candidates we are considering if he joins us and opens his mind to run.

“Obi is my friend and brother. If he comes to a platform where there are fewer encumbrances, he will be given the chance as well,” he said.

The governor noted that discussions were ongoing with other prominent politicians from the South, including Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde and former Minister of Transportation Rotimi Amaechi.

Makinde, the current governor of Oyo State, is a prominent figure in the party and has been a strong voice for Southern interests. His supporters see his youthfulness and performance as governor as key strengths. Makinde has been credited with strengthening the PDP and preventing it from going into extinction. His efforts in rallying governors and ensuring the party’s survival have earned him recognition within the party.

As governor, Makinde has demonstrated leadership skills, which could be beneficial in a presidential role. His experience in governing Oyo State and his initiatives might make him a strong contender. The PDP’s decision to zone its 2027 presidential ticket to the South gives him and other southern aspirants an opportunity to contest. Governor Bala Muhammed of Bauchi State, who has been a frontline contender in the North, has indicated his willingness to drop his presidential ambition, making it a wholly southern affair. This move might favour Makinde’s candidacy. However, whether he has the national appeal that can make him compete favourably with the incumbent President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, is another big question. Makinde was one of the G-5 Governors who openly worked against the party in the last Election, and the animosity from that period continues to hunt it. Given the ensuing crisis of confidence, it might be difficult for him to command national respect and acceptability that can give the party a competitive edge over the APC in the 2027 presidential election.

So far, the only person who can bridge the gap between the North and the South is Goodluck Jonathan. Whether the former President will run for president in 2027 is a matter of intense speculation and another political intrigue in the country. While he has not officially declared his intention to run, his spokespersons have denied the rumour. The speculation has sparked fresh debate about his constitutional right to contest another presidential election. This is the most significant hurdle and a major source of confusion in the party. The constitutional argument centres on the Fourth Alteration to the 1999 Constitution, which was signed into law by former President Muhammadu Buhari. The amendment bars any person who has been sworn in twice as president from running for the office again. Jonathan was sworn in as president in 2010 following the death of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, and again in 2011 after winning the election. Those who argue he is ineligible say that he has been sworn into the office twice, and the law applies to him. Others argue that the law cannot be applied retroactively. They claim the law was not in existence when Jonathan assumed office in 2010 and 2011, and that a law cannot be used to penalise an act committed before its existence. They contend he only served one full term as an elected president.

Another controversy surrounding his eligibility is political affiliation and alliance. While Jonathan remains a member of the PDP, his political relationship with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has been cordial since he left office. There was speculation that he might be a dark horse candidate for the APC in the 2023 election, and similar rumours persist for 2027. His neutrality and respected status as a statesman who peacefully conceded power make him an attractive, unifying figure for different political blocs. A definitive answer as to whether he will run cannot be ascertained at this time. While he has publicly denied the rumours, the political and legal arguments surrounding his eligibility, as well as the potential for a political coalition to draft him, will likely continue to make him a subject of political discussion until the election is much closer.

Odds to contend with

The main reason for the various options the party leadership is putting on the table for consideration is to shore up its capacity to win the coming election. But beyond the individuals on the list, there are several other challenges standing against the party like the rock of Gibraltar. Notable among these is the Nyesom Wike factor. Over the last two years, the former Governor of Rivers State and current Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) has been a thorn in the flesh of the PDP. Despite his recent ali’nme’t with the APC-led government, his influence ’ithin the party remains significant, causing confusion about his genuine stature as a member.

Before the last NEC meeting, there was wide speculation that his matter would be decided and finally laid to rest, but the party remained silent on it. While the leadership is reluctant to expel or suspend him, his actions have not been in tandem with certain interests in the party. His role in the G-5 rebellion, which saw him and other governors work against the PDP’s presidential candidate, and his acceptance of a ministerial appointment from an APC government without the PDP’s approval, have created an unprecedented situation. Wike has made statements expressing his loyalty to Tinubu. He has publicly declared his intention to support the President for a second term, stating his commitment to the President as a matter of principle and a reward for Tinubu’s support and trust.

This is the source of the confusion and tension within the party. Wike’s influence extends beyond mere rhetoric. He is a strong factor, he controls significant political resources. He has a powerful political machinery that can be used to mobilise voters and campaign funds. He remains a major political player in the South-South region. His alignment with President Tinubu has not only weakened the PDP but also created a new power base for the APC in a region traditionally dominated by the PDP. Wike’s political stance is a major source of divided interest within the PDP, and his public declaration of support for President Tinubu is a clear sign that the PDP’s claim to a united opposition is tenuous at best.

Citing Wike’s alleged anti-party activities and the inability of the party leadership to do anything about it, a former chairman of the PDP in Lagos State, Tunji Shelle, has resigned his membership of the party and defected to the newly formed ADC. He did not do so alone; he was joined by a group of other prominent party leaders in the state. The defection of Shelle and other leaders is seen as a significant blow to the PDP’s structure in Lagos, further weakening the party’s opposition role in the state and across the nation.

In terms of voting strength, Lagos and Kano are very critical in winning the presidential election. Losing its supporters in the state to the opposition coalition is a major setback. Shelle’s move is part of a larger political trend of realignments ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Speaking with Sunday Sun in a telephone interview, Shelle said he could no longer go along with a party that lacks discipline. “I cannot continue to travel with a party that betrayed itself, I cannot continue to be under a disorganised system,” he declared.

Across the states, defections and cross-party alliance remain a major issue the PDP has to grapple with as it navigates the complex challenge of trust deficit. The formation of a new opposition coalition under the ADC, which has attracted key PDP figures like former presidential candidates and party elders, is a clear example of how the party’s internal divisions are weakening its base. These figures have chosen to align with an external force rather than work within the PDP’s framework, which is a significant loss of political capital.

Muffled rumbles over zoning

Meanwhile there have been some muffled rumblings chiefly from the north over the party’s zoning of the presidency to the South, with some groups threatening to mount opposition against the development.

For instance, the Joint Action Committee of Northern Youth Associations ( JACON), while expressing its opposition to the zoning, said the party’s decision was unjust, undemocratic, and a betrayal of the North’s decades-long loyalty to the party. Some other groups have also insisted that the zoning would not go unchallenged.

‘Why we zoned presidency to South’

The spokesperson for the Ogun State chapter of the PDP, Akinloye Bankole, reacting to the recent defection in Lagos State in a telephone interview with Sunday Sun, dismissed the new emerging coalition as an effort in futility. He said: “Nigeria is a multiparty democracy. In advanced multiparty democracies, there is always a dominance of two political parties. We have it in America, we have it in Canada, we have it in the UK and other developed democracies. Nigeria cannot be an exception. That is why we have always had a straight fight between the APC and PDP at every cycle of election.

“Going by history, any attempt to bring a third leg into the race will be an effort in futility. It may look beautiful at the beginning but as it progresses, it will end up in disarray. Nigerians will see a sense in the dominance of two political parties.

“It is important to note that PDP is the only true and sincere opposition party we have in Nigeria. We have all the democratic organs and structures determining our decisions. And that is what we have exhibited at the last meeting that concluded on the zoning arrangement. So, it is important for all of us as loyal party members to abide by the arrangement.

“All efforts must also be geared towards bringing defected members back into the fold. We are desirous of bringing them back especially now that the issue of zoning arrangement has been resolved. I hope they will see a reason to return to the party.

“For me, the issue of discussion with former President Goodluck Jonathan to re-contest is speculative. Having said that, I think bringing him back will not be a bad idea.

“And I believe as a former President, he has the mental capacity to evaluate things properly and make a decision – after all, we have had two former heads of state who came back to re-contest and were elected as President. For me, if it is something that will be in the interest of Nigeria, so be it. In politics, there is nothing like desperation.”

The Publicity Secretary of PDP in Oyo State, Mr Michael Ogunsina, when contacted, said the decision to adopt a zoning formula for the 2027 presidential poll is the right thing to do.

According to him, “The zoning formula is not a new concept in Nigerian politics. It has been used by various parties to ensure fairness, equity, and representation across different regions and zones.

“We believe that by adopting this formula, we are taking a proactive step to ensure that our party remains inclusive, representative, and true to its core values.”

Ogunsina was optimistic that the decision would bring stability to the party in several ways.

“First, it will ensure that all regions within our party have a fair chance to produce a presidential candidate. This will prevent any one region from dominating the party’s leadership, thereby promoting unity and cohesion.

“Second, zoning will encourage participation and inclusivity within our party. It will give opportunities to leaders from different zones to contribute to the party’s growth and development.

“We believe this will foster a sense of belonging and ownership among party members, regardless of their region or zone.

“Third, the zoning formula will enhance our party’s chances of winning the presidential election in 2027. By presenting a candidate from a particular zone, we will be able to tap into the voting strength of that zone and potentially swing the election in our favour.

“Let me assure Nigerians that this decision was not taken lightly. Our party’s leadership carefully considered various factors, including the need for inclusivity, fairness, and representation.:

He urged all members of the party to support the zoning formula and work towards ensuring its success.

“Let us put aside our differences and work together towards achieving our common goal of winning the 2027 presidential election,” Ogunsina stated.

Deputy National Chairman of PDP (South), Ambassador Taofeek Arapaja, said the zoning of the 2027 presidential ticket of the party to the South is a bold step towards ensuring that the party remains true to its core values.

“The move is the way forward. It a sign that PDP remains the credible alternative,” he said.

Arapaja, who spoke though his media aide, Bamitale Ibrahim, noted that by adopting the zoning formula, the party has sent a strong message that it values the contributions of all members of the party, regardless of their region or zone.

“We believe that this decision will strengthen our party and position us for victory in the 2027 presidential election.

“With this decision, I am confident that we will emerge victorious and take the reins of power in 2027.” (Sunday Sun, excluding headline)

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