The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has finally sealed its most consequential decision ahead of the 2027 elections — zoning its presidential ticket to the South. It is a move that has redrawn Nigeria’s political map, ignited old rivalries, and set in motion a fresh round of scheming that cuts across party lines. While southern leaders of the PDP are jubilant, northern blocs within the party are quietly seething. And beyond the PDP, the decision has triggered calculations in the All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar’s African Democratic Congress (ADC), and Peter Obi’s Labour Party (LP).

For the PDP, the zoning decision is both a gamble and an attempt at redemption. After eight years of Muhammadu Buhari and the controversial decision to field Atiku Abubakar, a northerner, in 2023, many party faithful insisted that equity demanded a shift to the South. But the unity this was supposed to bring has instead exposed deeper fractures. Some northern leaders argue they are being unfairly boxed out, especially since the PDP’s strongest voting strength has historically come from the North.

NORTHERN WORTH

A former PDP lawmaker from Kano, who spoke on condition of anonymity, did not hide his anger. “The PDP thinks it can win without us. Let them try. Lagos and Kano alone can decide elections, and if the northern bloc feels betrayed, the PDP will learn the hard way,” he said.

The stakes are high because Lagos and Kano, Nigeria’s two most populous states and commercial nerve centres, will likely become the new battlegrounds. In Lagos, the PDP hopes to capitalize on discontent over high living costs and ride on Governor Seyi Makinde’s national visibility as one of the strongest southern PDP voices. In Kano, however, the dynamics are less favorable. Rabiu Kwankwaso’s New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) still commands grassroots loyalty, while the ruling APC retains its structure. A disgruntled northern PDP may find common cause with either camp to frustrate the southern ticket.

THE WIKE-MAKINDE FACTOR

But perhaps the biggest undercurrent in this zoning drama is not about regions, but about personalities and ambitions. Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State, the only PDP governor from the South-West, has long harbored presidential aspirations. By pushing aggressively for zoning to the South, many see his fingerprints all over the decision. Yet his ambition faces a formidable roadblock in Nyesom Wike, the FCT Minister, who still nurses grudges from 2023 when he lost the ticket to Atiku. Wike’s quarrel with Makinde is now an open secret, as both men court the same political space in the South-West and South-South.

Wike’s loyalists insist he will not fold his arms while Makinde emerges as the PDP’s southern candidate. A close ally of the minister in Rivers told Sunday Independent: “Makinde should not think it will be automatic. Wike may not run, but he will determine who runs. He has the structure, he has the resources, and he is in government. Don’t forget that.”

Across the aisle, the zoning decision has also reawakened debates within the ruling APC. Though the party already has President Bola Tinubu, a southerner, in power, the PDP’s southern zoning threatens to neutralize APC’s argument that it is the only party ensuring balance between regions. The APC must now decide whether to double down on Tinubu’s incumbency advantage or prepare for a possible northern revolt if economic pressures continue to bite. Lagos will be crucial here. A strong PDP showing in Tinubu’s home state could be symbolic, even if not decisive.

For Atiku Abubakar, who defected to the ADC after his failed 2023 run, the zoning decision is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it vindicates his northern critics who say his final exit from the PDP was inevitable. On the other hand, it shuts the door on his long-time presidential dream through Nigeria’s biggest opposition party. Atiku has responded by trying to rebrand the ADC as a pan-Nigerian platform, but his recent face-off with former Kaduna governor Nasir El-Rufai shows how fragile his coalition is. El-Rufai, once courted by Atiku, has since accused him of desperation and political opportunism. The quarrel has split ADC sympathizers in the North, leaving Atiku exposed in a region he once dominated.

Amid this chess game, Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State has emerged as a name whispered in PDP circles. Yet Makinde faces a cultural and political dilemma. As a Yoruba politician, he is said reluctant to confront President Tinubu directly in 2027 especially because of the accord between the duo in 2023 which returned him as Oyo State Governor for second term and Tinubu as President. “In Yoruba land, there’s always hesitation about betraying a sitting leader from the same region on the national stage,” an Ibadan-based analyst noted. “Makinde knows that even if he tries, he risks being branded a betrayer.”

JONATHAN, OBI OPTIONS

Hovering in the background is the Goodluck Jonathan option. The former president remains a compromise figure with considerable goodwill at home and abroad. His democratic credentials and nostalgia factor still resonate, especially among those who compare today’s hardships to the relative stability of his years. But analysts caution that Jonathan is already a highly respected statesman and international icon respected all over. “It is better he remains so and stares clear of politics for now no matter the pressure on him.”

Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s 2023 candidate, also stands to gain from the PDP’s southern zoning, but with caveats. On paper, a southern PDP ticket should weaken Obi’s claim as the sole champion of southern equity. Yet Obi retains a cult-like following among young Nigerians who see him as the face of a new political order. If the PDP fields a candidate tainted by old-guard politics — such as a Wike loyalist — Obi could reclaim the moral high ground. However, his challenge remains building structures beyond the South-East and urban centres.

Behind the political chess moves lie human stories that underscore the gravity of 2027. In Kano’s Sabon Gari market, Alhaji Ibrahim, a trader who has voted PDP since 1999, voiced his disillusionment: “They want to give the ticket to the South? Fine. But let them not expect my vote. We are the ones who stand in line for hours, and yet decisions are taken in Abuja without us.”

In Lagos, however, the mood is more complex. A group of young professionals gathered at a political forum in Surulere expressed cautious optimism. One participant, Chika Okafor, argued: “For the first time, both APC and PDP will be forced to present southern candidates. That gives people like us hope that the presidency is not just for one side of the country.”

The PDP leadership Is aware of these sentiments but insists it had no choice. A member of the party’s zoning committee defended the decision: “We have rotated before, and we must rotate again. Otherwise, PDP will lose its identity. 2023 was our mistake. 2027 must correct it.”

Yet correction comes at a price. In the North, whispers of defection loom. Some PDP stalwarts are already being courted by the APC, while others consider teaming up with Atiku’s ADC or even Obi’s Labour Party. The risk is that the PDP could win equity in principle but lose the numbers game in practice.

EMERGING SCENARIO

What is emerging is a three-pronged 2027 battlefield. The PDP, now southern-focused, will try to consolidate in Lagos, Rivers, and Oyo while hoping to salvage enough support in Kano and the North to stay competitive. The APC will bank on incumbency and Tinubu’s national machinery, but must navigate northern discontent if living conditions don’t improve. The ADC under Atiku seeks to present itself as the northern alternative, but its internal contradictions could cripple that effort. Meanwhile, Obi’s Labour Party lurks as a disruptor, particularly if youth disenchantment grows.

The human Interest angle, however, reveals the uncertainty ordinary Nigerians feel about these elite maneuvers. In Ibadan, a schoolteacher summed it up: “They talk about zoning as if it will put food on our tables. For us, the problem is survival. Whoever they zone to, let that person reduce the price of garri.”

That simple statement perhaps captures the paradox of Nigeria’s zoning politics. For the politicians, it is a power game of regions, flashpoints, and personalities. For the people, it is about whether the next president, North or South, can make their lives better.

As 2027 draws closer, the PDP’s southern gamble could either prove to be its redemption or its undoing. What is certain is that the battle for Lagos and Kano, the Makinde-Wike rivalry, Atiku’s fragile coalition, and Obi’s insurgent movement will define the contours of Nigeria’s next great election. (Sunday Independent)

Update news