Unless there is an urgent step by the new leadership of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to effectively manage its internal contradictions, the tiny fabric that holds its members together may soon tear apart.

Under the current precarious situation the party has found itself, its survival hinges entirely on the ability of the new leadership to manage the deep-seated internal power struggles that are threatening to pull it apart.

KACHIKWU

Arising from intense struggles, the tiny fabric holding the diverse interest groups together is already being stretched to its limits by a number of factors, including legitimacy crisis, conflict of identity and ideology. Two factions are currently claiming control?the one aligned with the new opposition coalition and the other led by Nafiu Bala Gombe, putting the party?s identity and legal standing to question. This creates a fundamental schism that prevents any cohesive action.

EL-RUFAI

From the very beginning of the newfound relationship, the party?s original members have shown resistance to the alliance arrangement, clashing with the new entrants. The old guard fears that the ADC, a party with its own unique history and principles, is being sold out to powerful, well-known politicians simply to serve as a vehicle for their ambitions. This has put the party in a quagmire, raising serious challenge of integrating political heavyweights like Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi into a party structure that was not built to accommodate such a dynamic.

ABDULLAHI

From all findings, the expectations and ambitions of these new leaders have not sat well with the original members. And it has created a source of friction. Unless the new leadership, and indeed the broader coalition, can find a way to reconcile these fundamental disagreements, address the grievances of the old members, and create a truly inclusive structure, the party risks a complete implosion. Such an outcome would not only be a setback for the party but also a major blow to the opposition?s hope of forging a united front ahead of the 2027.

PARALLEL LEADERSHIP

Parallel leadership structures have already emerged in the party, solidifying its internal crisis. This development is a direct result of the deep division over the party?s future and its role as the platform for a new opposition coalition. The division is between the coalition-aligned leadership and the faction opposed to the new coalition. While the former group sees the move to align with the new coalition as a hostile takeover and a betrayal of the party?s original principles, the latter embraces the takeover of the control of the party?s structures and is moving forward with the plan to re-engineer the party as a national political force. The national leadership of this faction has the backing of many state chairmen who attended a meeting in Abuja and agreed to the new direction. However, the rival faction is unhappy that they have been sidelined by the new power brokers. This faction has, therefore, publicly rejected the new leadership and is attempting to maintain a separate party structure, often accusing the other side of being sold out to outsiders.

There is also a disagreement over the ideology and identity of the party. The pro-coalition faction sees an opportunity for national relevance and power, while the anti-coalition faction wants to maintain the party?s original identity, which was founded on the principles of internal democracy and grassroots representation.

This emergence of a parallel leadership structure presents a major challenge for the ADC. It creates confusion among its members and voters, and it could lead to legal battles that may ultimately derail its plans to be a formidable opposition force.

Meanwhile, a faction led by the Deputy National Chairman, Nafiu Bala Gombe, has declared him the Interim National Chairman, effectively announcing a leadership change. They called on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to acknowledge their new leadership. A former National Publicity Secretary, Musa Matara, insisted that any constitutional amendment or leadership change must involve INEC supervision and a more inclusive process, which he claimed did not happen.

These rumbles represent a classic struggle between the old guard, founding members who want to retain control and the party?s original identity and the new entrants who are bringing a national profile, aiming to use the party?s existing structure for a presidential bid.

The presidential candidate of the party in the last election, Dumebi Kachikwu, was the first to raise a red flag about the party?s direction. He publicly argued that Nwosu?s tenure as chairman had expired in August 2022 and that he lacked the constitutional authority to hand over the party?s structures to outsiders. He insisted that any coalition discussions must be held with the current, legitimate leadership of the party, not with a former chairman. However, the supporters of the new coalition saw Kachikwu?s resistance as insignificant and a futile attempt to disrupt a major political realignment. They viewed his opposition as lacking the widespread support to effectively challenge the coalition?s momentum.

Reports indicate that Nwosu and his executive team formally resigned in favour of an interim leadership, although this itself has become a point of contention.

STATE CRISES

The root of the problems plaguing the state chapters is the recent decision to serve as the platform for a new opposition coalition, which has triggered a fierce battle for control between the old and new guards. In Adamawa State, for instance, the party?s inability to field a candidate in the upcoming bye-election for the State House of Assemble, Ganye Local Government Area, is due to its current leadership.

The crisis is a direct reflection of the national-level struggle for the party?s soul, particularly concerning its role in a new opposition coalition. However, unlike some states where there is a clear factional fight, the situation in Adamawa has been described by some as one of unity, while others perceive it as a tactical alignment.

Likewise in Kogi State, the raging conflict is a direct consequence of the national level leadership tussle. The has led to an open conflict between the group that is loyal to the party?s sole elected member in the National Assembly, Honourable Leke Abejide, who represents the Yagba Federal Constituency, and the faction led by the State Chairman, Kingsley Temitope Ogga, and the Secretary, John Adaji.

This has resulted in the purported suspension of Leke Abejide: The State Working Committee faction announced the indefinite suspension along with four other members. The official reason for the suspension was gross insubordination and anti-party activities. They accused Abejide of holding meetings with party members in Abuja without clearance from the state leadership and of working against the party?s interests.

In a counter reaction, the faction loyal to Abejide has also announced the suspension of Chairman Kingsley Ogga, saying that it does not recognise the kangaroo coalition ADC at the national level, as it does not reflect the will of the party?s members in Kogi State.

The Lagos chapter has been a flashpoint for these festering crises. This involves the State Chairman, Gbenga Ashiru, and other key figures. Stakeholders see the state as a battleground for the party, fuelling the fear that the friction could hinder the stability of the party.

The Gombe state chapter of the ADC is also in the news. Like others, the crisis reflects a division within the party on how to approach the new alliance, with some members embracing it while others resist. While some members frown at the coalition forces and the new leadership, describing it as an orchestrated political coup, others welcome the new entrants.

As a fallout of these crises, state chapters are now being forced to align with one of the two competing factions?the one led by the new coalition and the one led by those resisting it. This has created confusion and a lack of clear direction across the country, as party executives at the state level are unsure which leadership to recognize.

BLAME GAME

There is an accusation by the leadership of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is using proxies to destabilize the party. This allegation of sponsoring its internal crisis is rooted in a specific and recurring pattern of political behaviour in Nigeria. The accusation is coming from the faction that is supporting the new, high-profile opposition coalition.

The leadership crisis, in which a former Deputy National Chairman, Nafiu Bala Gombe, declared himself the Interim National Chairman, occurred shortly after the ADC was unveiled as the platform for the new opposition coalition.

National Publicity Secretary of the party, Bolaji Abdullahi, explicitly described Gombe?s actions as a handiwork of the APC, meant to destabilise the coalition. This, he said, was part of desperation by the ruling party, which he claimed was in panic over the new alliance.

Recently, there was a widespread report that officials from the APC-led federal government had been holding secret meetings with former state chairmen and key members of the ADC, particularly in the North-East and North-West. According to the ADC, the purpose of these meetings was to intimidate and coerce opposition figures.

The coalition?s leading promoters, like former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, and former Kaduna Governor Nasir El-Rufai, have openly alleged that the APC uses a carrot-and-stick approach. Carrot approach: offering appointments, cash incentives, and automatic party tickets to lure opposition members into joining the APC. And stick approach: using state institutions, such as anti-corruption agencies like the EFCC, to harass and blackmail those who resist.

This approach, they say, is not a new tactic, pointing to similar internal crises and protracted legal battles that have plagued other opposition parties, such as the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP), in recent years. They allege that these crises were also sponsored by the ruling party to weaken them.

Anticipatory of any eventuality, El-Rufai, one of the architects of the new coalition, has already suggested a backup plan. He had publicly stated even before the crisis emerged that they were aware the APC would try to infiltrate and destabilise the ADC. As a result, he suggested that the coalition should have a backup plan to register another party in case the APC eventually hijack the ADC.

Expectedly, the ruling party has denied the allegations, describing the claims as false, baseless, and a cover-up for its internal crisis. They argue that the ADC is being haunted by its own shadow and that its leadership is incompetent to manage a party. They?ve also characterised the new coalition as a group of failed and restless politicians who are simply drowning in confusion and begging for relevance. The APC maintains that it is not interested in sowing discord in a party that, in their view, is already mortally wounded.

The ADC?s accusation is a blend of political strategy, a defensive reaction to internal turmoil, and an allegation rooted in a long-standing perception of how the ruling party has historically dealt with a rising opposition.

ANALYSTS WEIGH IN

Prominent leaders of thought who spoke with Sunday Sun, following the emerging political trends, expressed mixed reaction to ADC?s claim of being an alternative to the APC. While one opinion highlights cautious optimism about the future of the party as a credible, strong and reliable opposition party, the other dismissed it as inconsequential.

?I will limit my comment by saying that there is a credible opposition party, but whether it can grow to become an alternative to APC is yet to be seen. I will also give it the benefit of the doubt because it is not more than two or three months old, but the people who are there are seasoned politicians who have been around for a long time. They have been around for as long as those in APC, PDP, APGA and the rest of them have been around. These are strong enough to provide a credible opposition. But as an alternative, I will say the taste of the pudding is in the eating. So, the pudding is still being made and we have not started eating to know its taste.

?As to the crisis in the party, if the people at the state level are the ones creating problems, they will soon fizzle out because the constitution doesn?t recognise state executives as separate from national leadership. It is only for the INEC to do the right thing so that this confusion can fizzle out.?

Asked to comment on the challenge of picking a presidential candidate for the 2027 among the contending forces, he added: ?As we speak, I am not aware that Peter Obi is a card-carrying member of ADC. And you can quote me on this; Peter Obi has not told anybody that he is now a card-carrying member of ADC. That is why the likes of Jerry Gana can be talking about wooing him back to PDP. Nenadi Usman believes that Peter Obi is in the Labour Party. Until Peter Obi takes a position, I wouldn?t say that ADC has any dilemma in electing a presidential candidate. Those who have made their intentions known and the whole world knows are Atiku Abubakar and Rotimi Amaechi.

?And David Mark, who is the Chairman, has said it repeatedly that their convention will be a credible convention and that they are not going to zone their presidential ticket to any part of Nigeria. That simply means that it will be thrown open. If it is thrown open, honestly, Obi doesn?t have a chance. The reason he does not have a chance is not because he is not qualified. He is eminently qualified. In fact, he is a candidate to beat if he has a presidential ticket in his hands.

?However, I don?t see him overcoming the structural challenge all of us in the South-East have suffered from the time of Dr. Alex Ekwueme till now. For instance, North-West alone has 188 local governments, while South-East has 95. According to the Constitution of Nigeria and Electoral Act, delegates to a convention will be selected based on equality of local governments. Knowing what influences our delegates to vote in one way or the other, how does Obi have a chance? In the whole country, the South-East has the least number of local governments. So, the only way Obi will exercise his popularity is for him to fly a presidential flag as he did in the last election. (Saturday Sun)

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