The price of rice, which went down to about N65,000 per bag about six months ago, is on the upswing again, signifying more hard times for Nigerians.

Sunday Vanguard?s survey in some markets in Lagos shows that some brands of rice now sell for as high as N100,000 while others are a little lower than about N65. 000 Nigerians bought it before.

Dealers blame the development on the presumed end of the 150-day duty-free import window for essential food items as part of the Presidential Accelerated Stabilisation and Advancement Plan.

Meanwhile, millers are alleging that the presidential initiative, announced in July 2024, was conducted in secrecy as only a few firms allegedly benefited from the waivers to import duty-free grains, among which was rice.

?From what we know so far, (only) three big firms, including one in Lagos and another in Kaduna, are said to be beneficiaries of the waivers?, the Chairman, Board of Trustees, BoT, Competitive African Rice Forum, Nigerian Chapter, CARF-FSD Nigeria, CARF-FSD Nigeria, Peter Dama, told Sunday Vanguard.

Dama, who is also the President of the Rice Millers Association of Nigeria (RIMAN), also criticised short-term measures like waivers to crash prices as detrimental to local rice farmers, millers, processors and marketers, saying long-term measures to support them were what the nation needed to ensure food security.

Dire situation

Dealers in some markets in Lagos, who spoke to us about the increase in the price of the staple food, said they were frustrated about the development, describing it as a dire situation.

Mrs Bolatito Yunisa, a rice dealer at Daleko Market Lagos, lamented: ?Honestly I can?t understand Nigeria system again. We are frustrated. We are not in business.

?A bag of short grain rice we saw going down to as low as 65k has gone as high as 85k, the long grain sells between 90k and as high as 100k and it?s still going up.

?We learnt that the temporary relief has ended. Really, is this how we will continue to live as a country?

?Where is the Nigeria rice? Millers are complaining of not seeing enough paddy. Many millers are no longer producing because of FX issues. Do we go hungry? I think there is confusion somewhere?.

On her part, Mrs Bukola Osagie, another rice dealer at Mile 12 International Market Lagos, said: ?It?s not funny at all. I don?t even know how families are surviving. Price keeps flying up.

?Even as a dealer, we now sell in Derica measurement because many people cannot afford to buy bag of rice anymore. We share for them so that we can also make sales?.

At the Mile 12 International Market, a bag of 50kg short grain rice that was sold for between 60k and 65k, now sells for between 77k and 85k depending on the quality.

Long grain version sells in the market for between 85k and 90k.

The price of locally produced rice that sold in the market for between 70k and 72k has also increased.

Dama, speaking to Sunday Vanguard on those who got the waivers, said, ?What we know is that the rice value chain actors, who laboured to build the rice processing industry, were the ones who proposed solutions to the government about the rising costs of rice through memos and advice.

?The solutions included import quotas and waivers to deter hoarding and make up the shortfall in primary production without hurting rice millers, processors, farmers or the agriculture value chain.

?Again, some rice value chain actors amongst us, who had strong networks in India, even got to the Indian government to drop its 20 per cent export duty on rice, so that Nigerians can benefit from lower prices.

?However, as we speak, none of the companies within our members were granted waiver licenses or quotas for brown rice imports.

?For those who got the waivers, we are sure of one big rice mill because the Chairman stated it during his recent visit to the president and he announced it at the Presidential Villa. ?We have also heard unconfirmed reports of two other firms also being part of those who received the waivers.

Details

?We are not privy to the details.

?One of the firms, however, mentioned 200,000 tonnes of brown rice with a value of about $84 million. ?The waivers are presidential waivers.

?There is supposed to be a process for issuance of these waivers, starting from the Ministry of Agriculture, Trade and investment and ending up in the Ministry of Finance.

?Our members applied, but have not received any response from government to their applications?.

Dama said what has just happened serves as a reminder to consider the long-term implications of government decisions and to strive for more sustainable solutions whenever possible.

?Findings revealed that brown rice, under temporary waivers on import duties for essential food imports gulped a total of N1.9 trillion ($1.17billion) from Nigeria in the second half of 2024?, he said.

?2.4 million tonnes of brown rice were shipped to the country by Nigerian firms between July and December last year.

?Also, 10,000 tonnes of another rice ferried by African Swift in the first week of July 2025 are being offloaded at Lagos Port, after 32,000-tonnes shipment of brown rice from Thailand was facilitated in January 2025 by a logistics company, DUCAT, as importation of brown rice was permitted to help address rising food cost.

?Despite the imports, consumers in the country were still paying between N70,000 and N78,000 per 50 kg on smuggled parboiled rice from Benin Republic due to local production deficit.

?What is the end result? We are back to where we left and even worse.

?Nigeria has more than enough rice mills to feed the nation but the policy inconsistencies and selective import duty waivers has threatened the viability of Nigeria?s rice industry which has led to underutilization of productive capacity.

?Also, the high cost of FX for imports and high costs of shipment, inputs and other goods and services still persist.

?Local rice millers are struggling to compete with cheaper, subsidized imports.

?This has led to the collapse in demand for paddy rice, leaving farmers with unsold harvests and forcing many rice mills to shut down or scale back on operations.

?The major issue of insecurity following constant kidnapping of farmers still persists and high cost of farm inputs and services is also an issue because it equally affected the production output of our paddy which is the sole raw material for the production of rice.

?Electricity is not stable, we use generators in order to mill rice for at least eight hours, cost of fertilisers is high and even to cost of labourers. ?You don?t expect rice millers to mill his rice without making profit.

?Yes, we can feed the nation but with the situation of things, Nigerians can?t get it cheaper unless a drastic measure is taken to address food insecurity that is biting hard on both the rich and the poor?.

?Although the intention behind this policy may have been commendable, aimed at alleviating the impacts of inflation and hunger affecting the nation, it has unintentionally sparked a new crisis that jeopardizes the very foundation of Nigeria?s food security. ?Where were you when the Chairman of one of the beneficiaries went into the Villa to thank the president about the tons of rice he brought into the country that later led to the crash of the price of rice in the country??

Smuggled rice

The RIMAN President also spoke on the consequence of rice smuggling into the country, saying it has continued and threatening local production of the staple food. ?Smuggling is inherently illegal and shrouded in secrecy too. Thus there is no way to get a definite figure?, he said.

?Estimates, however, indicate that over 1,000,000 metric tonnes of finished rice has been smuggled from January to date into the country.

?The information we have is that the Ministry of Agriculture has submitted their vetted list to the Ministry of Finance containing who they believed to be genuine rice millers and rice processors in the country.

?But there is as yet no action taken by the Finance Ministry on the list submitted.

?There is complete silence from both ministries about the threat to the Nigerian rice milling industry, rice farmers, Nigerian agriculture ecosystem, food security and need for self-sufficiency in the rice sector. ?There is no indication that the government is aware of the repercussions of its actions.

?And this is coming a few years after COVID-19 epidemic when Nigerian farmers fed this country and prevented starvation.

?We may have collapse of the achievements recorded in the rice value chain in Nigeria: Job losses; private and public investments are lost.

?Some of our members collected loans to invest in these ventures following appeal by government that we must eat what we produce.

Fears

He spoke on his fears for the local rice industry and the consequences.

?Rise in insecurity as youths who are disengaged will gradually take to crime; Nigeria may become dependent on imports to feed the nation as rice being a prominent food cereal in our diet may be unavailable for the masses of this country; and farmers and millers are unable to sell their products, it will create disharmony amongst citizens.?

Explanation

Another stakeholder in the agricultural sector, Jerry Olanrewaju, pointed out that the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food owes the nation explanation about the waivers.

Olanrewaju, who is the Chief Farmer of Africa and Representative of Youth in Agriculture, said: ?As of now, there is no transparent public record disclosing the individuals or corporate entities who have been granted rice import waivers.

?This lack of transparency is problematic in a country where local production is fragile and heavily reliant on government policy for support.

?Historically, such waivers have often favored politically connected importers or conglomerates, sidelining the actual needs of the smallholder farmers who produce over 70 per cent of the rice consumed in Nigeria.

?The waiver system, if not carefully monitored and made public, creates a distorted playing field.

?While smallholder farmers struggle with inadequate financing, poor infrastructure, rising cost of inputs, and low access to mechanization, rice importers benefit from reduced tariffs and tax incentives.

?This effectively makes imported rice cheaper than locally grown rice in many urban markets.

?The implications are clear.

?Nigeria is at risk of reversing the hard-earned gains of its rice self-sufficiency campaign, and the people paying the price are our farmers.

?In summary, until there is full disclosure of who receives these waivers, the public cannot trust the system, and local agricultural growth will remain stunted.?

Lost revenue

He went on: ?The value of the rice import waivers is difficult to estimate without official disclosure, but even a conservative calculation suggests it runs into tens of billions of Naira. ?Waivers typically mean importers are exempted from paying duties or taxes that would normally apply to the importation of rice?duties that are set deliberately high to protect local producers.

?When such waivers are issued, government revenue is lost, and local producers are undercut in the market.

?The waivers are typically authorized by the Federal Ministry of Finance, sometimes upon recommendation or pressure from other arms of government or influential stakeholders. Occasionally, the Central Bank of Nigeria may play a role indirectly through foreign exchange policies, while the Federal Ministry of Agriculture is expected to provide technical advice.

?However, the absence of inter-ministerial coordination often results in policies that contradict each other. ?On one hand, we hear the government is promoting rice production through anchor borrower programs; on the other hand, it is issuing waivers that depress the market for locally grown rice.

?This contradiction signals either policy confusion or misplaced priorities.

?The real issue here is not just the amount being waived, it is the opportunity cost.

?Every billion Naira given as a waiver could have gone into irrigation schemes, seed improvement programs, mechanization support, or extension services for farmers. It is not just about figures; it is about who benefits and who suffers.?

Open secret

Olanrewaju also spoke on rice smuggling into Nigeria, saying it is an open secret and an economic tragedy.

?Estimates vary, but unofficial figures suggest that Nigeria loses hundreds of billions of naira annually to smuggled rice?, he said.

?Given Nigeria?s porous borders?especially in areas like Seme, Jibia, and Illela?large volumes of rice enter the country illegally, avoiding tariffs and undermining local production.

?This black-market trade is fueled by several factors: high demand for cheaper alternatives, weak customs enforcement, and the presence of powerful syndicates that profit from the trade.

?Smuggled rice is often sold at prices local farmers simply cannot compete with, not because local rice is inferior, but because it is burdened by higher production costs, poor infrastructure, and lack of subsidies that other countries?like Thailand, India, or Vietnam?routinely give their farmers.

?Worse still, smuggled rice may evade food safety standards, meaning consumers are not only hurting local farmers but also potentially compromising their health.

?Customs needs to conduct and publish periodic border trade audits. More importantly, we must close the incentive gap: as long as imported or smuggled rice remains cheaper and more accessible, farmers in Nigeria will remain vulnerable.?

Policy response

?It is hard to believe that the Federal Ministry of Agriculture is unaware of the situation.

?The impacts are visible across rice-producing states?from Kebbi to Ebonyi, Benue to Nasarawa.

?Farmers are scaling down production or switching to other crops due to unsold inventory and depressed prices.

?The Ministry?s silence, however, is deafening.

?While occasional public statements may reference support for agriculture, we have yet to see a concrete policy response to the flooding of the market with imported rice?legal or illegal.

?No emergency support program, no pricing stabilization strategy, and no real-time data showing how the Ministry is monitoring the local rice economy in light of these disruptions.

?If the Ministry is indeed aware, then it owes the nation an explanation and a coordinated response. That response should include: Immediate publication of waiver beneficiaries; Engagement with border security to curb smuggling; Reintroduction of price guarantees or buffer stock purchases; and realignment of federal programmes to ensure continuity in rice farming as a business.

?If they are unaware, then that raises serious questions about the Ministry?s capacity to monitor and regulate one of Nigeria?s most strategic food sectors.

No statement

?So far, there has been no comprehensive or proactive public statement from the Federal Ministry of Agriculture addressing the threat posed by the issuance of rice import waivers or the growing volume of smuggled rice.

?This silence is not only concerning, it signals a lack of urgency and strategic foresight.

?With farmers across Nigeria raising alarms about unsold stock, falling farmgate prices, and uncertainty about the next planting season, the absence of a clear position from the Ministry is demoralizing.

?When government institutions fail to acknowledge visible threats, they indirectly undermine trust in public agricultural policy.

?The role of the Ministry goes beyond funding and distribution of inputs; it is also the chief custodian of Nigeria?s agricultural market integrity.

?By not responding to these developments, the Ministry risks sending a dangerous message?that local farmers can be sacrificed on the altar of short-term economic decisions or trade-offs.

?The Ministry must rise to the occasion by speaking out clearly, presenting facts, engaging with farmer associations, and demanding policy coordination with the Ministry of Finance, Customs, and the Central Bank of Nigeria.

?Most importantly, the Ministry should immediately activate a multi-agency task force to assess the impact of the waivers and smuggling on rice production and farmers? livelihoods.

?It should also lead in proposing practical interventions, such as buffer stock purchase schemes, minimum price guarantees, or farmer relief packages?to stabilize the market. ?Ignoring this threat not only endangers food security but risks eroding the gains made in local rice production over the last decade.?

Hunger

According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), over 30 million Nigerians are currently at risk of acute hunger, with 30.6 million expected to face food and nutrition insecurity during the June to August lean season this year.

These figures have been described as alarming by international agencies and nutrition experts monitoring the situation.

This is why sometimes a temporary solution can become a permanent problem in disguise.

It highlights the potential pitfalls of relying on quick fixes rather than addressing the root causes of a problem.

Temporary solutions can provide immediate relief, but if not carefully managed, they can lead to complications or dependencies that are harder to resolve in the long run. (Sunday Vanguard)

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