The defection of Senator Ireti Kingibe, representing the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), from the Labour Party (LP) to the African Democratic Congress (ADC) has sparked intense permutations about her political future, especially her chances of retaining her seat in the 2027 general elections.

Kingibe has been locked in a long-standing feud with the Minister of the FCT, Nyesom Wike, an ally of Philip Aduda, her main opponent in the 2023 election. She has frequently accused him of sidelining her in the management of affairs within the capital territory. Many observers believe her defection is not unconnected with that rift, amid growing fears that Wike, a major power broker in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) with federal might, could work against her return to the Senate.

Senator Kingibe dumped the LP on July 11, citing internal wrangling and the existence of factions within the party. Her decision to join the ADC came at a time when the party was adopted by the newly formed opposition coalition, which aims to challenge the All Progressives Congress (APC) and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the 2027 election.

Speaking to journalists shortly after her defection, Kingibe described the move as a deliberate and strategic step and said her official induction into the ADC would be marked by celebration.

?I?m totally and completely committed to ADC. But obviously, as the senator representing the FCT, you don?t expect me to just take a lunch break and go collect a card. I want to do so with noise and fanfare,? she said.

She justified her decision by pointing to the factional crisis rocking the LP and described her exit as constitutional and in line with political reality.

Asked whether the ADC would provide the platform she needs to secure re-election, she responded with optimism.

?It?s something that is evolving. So you cannot say while your child is still crawling that you are not happy with how he is going to run. You wait. We are growing,? she added.

Closed-door moves raise eyebrows

Barely two days after her exit from the LP, the party?s factional chairman, Julius Abure, held a closed-door meeting with Minister Wike at the latter?s Abuja residence.

Although the agenda of the meeting remains undisclosed, it took place amidst renewed internal crises in the LP following a recent Supreme Court judgement and Peter Obi?s increasing alignment with the ADC-led coalition.

Daily Trust reports that the Abure-led faction of the LP has already urged Obi to quit the party over his romance with the ADC. Pundits speculate that Kingibe?s defection may have been a key topic at the Wike-Abure meeting.

But while details remain sketchy, public attention is now shifting to whether Kingibe, on the platform of the ADC, can secure a second term in 2027.

Long road to Senate

Until her 2023 breakthrough, Kingibe had contested for the FCT Senate seat multiple times since 2003, all without success. Her eventual triumph came when she defeated PDP heavyweight Senator Aduda, who had held the seat for 12 years.

Aduda challenged her victory at the election petition tribunal, but the Court of Appeal, in November 2023, affirmed Kingibe?s win.

Her surprise win in 2023 raised many eyebrows. Some attributed her unexpected victory to the shifting political dynamics in the capital territory.

Different narratives have, however, emerged about the factors that contributed to Kingibe?s eventual success after years of failed attempts.

In Nyanya, an FCT resident and businessman, Aliyu Abubakar, told Daily Trust that the crisis in the PDP had made many of its loyalists vote for the LP during the 2023 polls.

?The intense crisis in the PDP played a role. It prompted Kingibe?s election as FCT senator. People got fed up with PDP,? he said.

But Kumashe Tindiun, a nurse in the FCT, attributed her victory to the Peter Obi wave.

?The emergence of Peter Obi as LP presidential candidate and the goodwill that accompanied it was a plus to Kingibe?s campaign and subsequent victory,? she said.

?His appeal to Nigerian youths through his Obidient Movement added value to Kingibe?s chances. If Obi secures the ADC presidential ticket, Kingibe would still win in 2027.?

Emeka Johnson, a 44-year-old teacher, echoed similar sentiments. He said the LP ?tsunami? and a general yearning for change played a significant role in Kingibe?s win.

?Kingibe?s promise of better representation helped her. As long as she stays in the same political camp as Obi, she?ll continue to benefit from his goodwill,? he said.

Kingibe herself once remarked during a campaign that ?I am bringing a credible representation. I?m not going there to put anything in my pocket. At my age, I have everything that I want. I am not trying to move to a better house, but I want to give back to the society that has been good to me.?

?I didn?t join politics for anything other than improving the country and the people. A nation and a government are judged by the well-being of the people?that is what determines success.?

Analysts weigh in on 2027 outlook

Political analyst, Jackson Lekan Ojo, told Daily Trust in a telephone interview that Kingibe?s 2027 fate will rest squarely on her performance in office in the next two years and how well she resonates with FCT residents, not necessarily her party.

?Her defection to ADC is not a threat to her reelection bid, but she must up her game ahead of the polls,? he said.

?If she performs creditably well and to the satisfaction of the FCT people, it will be difficult for anyone to rig her out. If the people support her, any attempt to stop her could trigger unrest.?

Ojo warned that the political powers that be should tread carefully in the FCT.

?If the people back her and some forces with one leg in the North and one leg in the South try to stop that, there could be a crisis. And when there?s a serious crisis in the FCT, bad actors could infiltrate and cause mayhem. It?s a very delicate situation.?

On claims that Kingibe should have defected to the APC to receive federal cover from whatever onslaught Wike might be planning against her instead of the ADC, Ojo pushed back.

?Must everyone defect to the APC? Is there anything attractive in the APC that should draw everyone in? An implosion will happen in the APC whe? we get to the primaries.?

Another political analyst, Aminu Yakudima, said Kingibe?s defection may have been emotionally driven by her prolonged conflict with Wike.

?She?s been having a running battle with the FCT minister. So most of her actions can be traced to that friction,? he said.

Yakudima noted that while the LP is indeed in crisis, that alone was not enough justification for her to leave.

?Almost all opposition parties are in crisis. That?s not a new thing. Her move appears to be driven more by emotion than strategy.?

He cautioned that the ADC, though growing, is not yet a sufficiently grounded political platform to guarantee electoral success in a complex environment like the FCT.

?ADC is still coming up. It takes time to consolidate and build grassroots strength, especially with the 2027 election just two years away.?

?That?s where her error comes in. The LP crisis may have pushed her, but it may ultimately affect her chances in 2027,? he said.

Several efforts to get a comment from her on the strategy behind her move to the ADC were unsuccessful. However, voters and political analysts say the real test of whether her gamble will pay off will become clearer in the months ahead, particularly after the conclusion of party primaries. (Daily Trust)

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