Across the country, rural communities are becoming increasingly concerned about late and unpredictable rain patterns being experienced in some parts of the country, which are already impacting farming activities this wet season.

The 2025 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) made public by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) in Abuja had warned farmers and relevant stakeholders to be prepared. NiMet had earlier indicated that the start of the rainy season was expected to be delayed in northern states like Plateau and parts of Kaduna, Niger, Benue, Nasarawa, Taraba, Adamawa and Kwara.

In comparison to the long-term average, the rainy season is predicted to end earlier in parts of Zamfara, Katsina, Kano, Kaduna, Jigawa, Plateau, Bauchi, Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, Taraba, Niger, Kwara, Kogi, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Ekiti and Ondo states.

A severe dry period lasting up to 21 days is forecast in northern states during the June-July-August season, according to the 2025 SCP. NiMet added that a significant dry spell (21 days or more) is likely to affect many local government areas in Borno, Gombe, Yobe, Katsina, Jigawa, Bauchi, Kebbi, Kano, Plateau, Zamfara and Sokoto states. The agency also noted that the ?Little Dry Season (LDS) event of 2025 will only be severe over parts of Lagos and Ogun states, with the number of days with little or no rainfall ranging between 27 to 40 days.?

The agency stated, ?These forecasts serve as an early warning tool to stakeholders, state governments and the general public for timely preparedness against potential hazards associated with heavy rains, floods and high temperatures, as well as dry spells in parts of the country.?

Farmers worry

Our correspondents across states report that farmers are becoming increasingly worried as they face an uncertain future regarding their investments.

In Gombe State, our correspondent reports that the predictions by experts are gradually becoming a reality as the state continues to experience erratic and insufficient rainfall. Rain showers began in early May, prompting many farmers to clear their farmlands and plant various crops, particularly millet and maize. Although the crops initially sprouted, the inconsistent rainfall has since hindered their growth and overall progress.

Adamu Muhammad, a farmer shared his experience, saying he planted early and his crops started growing well; however, the prolonged dry spells have dampened his hopes for a good harvest.

?It is now common to go 10 days or more without rain. This situation is worrying us because crops need consistent moisture to thrive,? Muhammad said. He added that while some of the crops still appeared healthy, a continued lack of rainfall could significantly reduce their yield.

Another farmer, Hajara Yunusa, said she anticipated the unpredictable rain pattern and decided to plant millet on three hectares of land, believing it is more tolerant to drought.

?I observed from the beginning that the rains were not regular, that?s why I went for millet. But even now, the pattern is scary: it rains one day and we may go several days without another drop. Many farmers remain hesitant to apply fertiliser, fearing that without adequate rainfall, the chemicals could destroy their already struggling crops.? Hajara explained.

In Taraba State, farmers expressed fear over a repeat of last year?s experience. Areas experiencing irregular rainfall are mostly in the northern part of the state. Although farmers have already planted maize, rice and other crops, the planting was done late due to late rainfall, which has not been regular.

The paramount ruler of Mutum-Biyu chiefdom in Gassol Local Government Area of the state, Sani Suleiman Mohammed, said the rain pattern being experienced had become a source of concern for farmers, adding that they witnessed the same thing last year.

He said, ?You can see that we are now in July but maize and rice crops are just germinating, which is a signal that food production may likely be affected this farming season. A situation where there is no rainfall for days is not good for the farming season, so only God knows what the season would look like this year.?

He also mentioned reports of impending severe flooding, which if it happens, would further compound the difficult situation farmers are going through.

Alhaji Sani Suleiman Muhammed said that aside climate change, which has posed serious problems to food production, farmers were also faced with high cost of farm inputs, while prices of grains have drastically dropped.

Madam Janet, a farmer, said there was delay in the arrival of rainfall, which also delayed planting, threatening food production.

Reports from Kano and Jigawa states also indicated a similar situation. Malam Yahaya Garba, a farmer from Kutama village in Gwarzo Local Government Area of Kano State, said rainfall had been erratic. He noted that few farmers had taken the bull by the horns and planted around mid-June, while many were afraid and only starting to plant now. He explained that the rains had delayed this year compared to last year and farmers are scared of losing their seeds if they had planted in anticipation.

In Gezawa Local Government Area, farmers also expressed concerns about delayed rains, adding that they had expected It to start earlier, but it only came a few days ago. For Malam Hamza Tsamiya, their prayer is that the rains should stay longer to enable their crops grow and mature because they are already planting late.

In Jigawa and Kano, the situation is similar, but with a slight difference in farmers? approach.

Usman Ubale Gwaran, a farmer from Gwaran Local Government, said their area only recorded two major rainfalls since the beginning of the rainy season. He added that though the rain started late, many had damned the consequences and gone ahead to plant. Similar cases have been recorded in other local government areas of the state as the rains did not only start late but have been erratic.

Some farming communities in Nasarawa State are already experiencing the effects of late rainfall and the dry weather that has started in certain places. Farmers like Musa Ombugu, Gomna Yusuf and Mailafia Auta are worried that the delayed start of the rainy season this year could seriously jeopardise their yield.

Yusuf said, ?I used to grow my rice in mid-June, but the rains never came. When it did, we planted it, and it didn?t come around again for a while.? He added that occasionally, it would rain a lot and wash away farms before stopping.

Since most of the rice planted is in upland fields, Mr Musa told Weekend Trust that the lack of rain in communities like Alwaza, Angwa Ahuta and many others had caused them to be extremely concerned about the quality of their harvest.

?If this rain is going to continue like this, we are going to have a lot of problems this year,? he lamented.

Alhaji Salihu Ibrahim, a farmer in Gbako Local Government Area of Niger State, described the situation as really disturbing.

?As I speak to you today, many farmers, including myself, can?t calculate our farming activities for the year. We are losing, and except with God?s miracle, it won?t be easy this year because no farmer is productively seeing progress in his farming activities around here due to inadequate rainfall,? he said.

Farmers in Plateau State also expressed concern over the development, emphasising that if the situation unfolds as predicted, farming activities would undoubtedly be affected.

Azi Peter, a farmer and resident of Laminga in Jos North Local Government Area, expressed worry over what he described as a terrible situation. Peter said, ?Even before the expected date, we are beginning to experience low rainfall in the state. For example, in the last 10 days, residents of Bokkos have not witnessed rainfall until today (Wednesday). It is a general problem this year. We are yet to enjoy heavy downpours like the previous years. With the current development, if the drought is extended, we will have a devastating period. It is a worrisome situation because there might be low yields. Crops like Irish potatoes and yam, often planted in sandy areas, require much rain, and the rains have been erratic this year, so the crops would be affected. We are worried indeed.?

Another farmer in Angware community of Jos East Local Government, Mamman Azi, believes that the situation would have negative consequences on farmers. He said, ?As a farmer, I think it would ultimately affect our yields because there would be a change in the planting periods. It would delay planting, and there is no certainty that the rains will continue until October and November to enable the crops grow to maturity. Even the crops already planted may not reach maturity level for harvest if the prediction is correct. As I speak to you now, the rains are already inadequate, let alone when we begin to experience drought.?

Also, Aliyu Mohammed, a farmer in Lavun Local Government, said that all the crops, including maize, which he planted this year, were drought-tolerant. He, however, lamented that awareness on drought-tolerant crops was very low among farmers in the area.

He said, ?Becausee of the similar experience we had last year, where many farmers in Niger State lost their crops to prolonged drought, especially guinea corn, millet and maize, I have gone for crops that are drought resistant this year. There are varieties of maize, guinea corn that can withstand drought. So, unless the drought lasts more than a month, it will not have effect on my farms like last year. The major issue Is lack of awareness of drought-resistant crops among farmers. Last year, many farmers lost large hectares of their beans, maize and guinea corn to drought. The drought we experienced in 2024 was severe. Even on Monday, I went to buy maize for planting and I was shown the drought-resistant variety, which I bought. But many farmers still planted the local variety they planted in 2024 because not many of them have the knowledge of improved seeds. Many farmers whose maize farms have grown planted local varieties, and if we experience drought, they would lose a lot.?

Adapt fast or loose ? Experts

An agricultural expert, Dr Teryima Iorlamen, has advised farmers to adhere strictly to best agronomy practices as they navigate an increasingly unpredictable agricultural landscape. Iorlamen, a seed systems principal investigator at the Joseph Sarwuan Tarka University, Makurdi (JOSTUM), warned farmers to adapt fast or risk a serious drop in yield following an impending drought due to climate change. He noted that in the face of changing weather patterns, the need for increased awareness and timely action could not be overemphasised.

?There is what is traditionally known as August break in Nigeria?s meteorological history, but due to climate change, that break now occurs earlier in July and sometimes spills into August,? he explained.

This shift, in his estimation, will adversely impact the cultivation of major staple crops like rice, maize, sorghum and soybeans, all of which rely heavily on July rains for optimal growth.

?It is too early to plant soybeans in June. July is the recommended window for certain varieties. The same applies to maize and rice. If you want to harvest dry maize, for example, July planting is best,? he added.

He, however, noted that the drought-like conditions forecasted this July could disrupt weed control, fertiliser application, and expose crops to increased pest infestations.

?We are likely to see more cases of armyworm infestation on maize. Drought makes crops more vulnerable to pest attacks and also reduces nutrient uptake. This will affect the overall performance and yield,? he also said.

According to him, farmers who planted very early in the season may also face a different kind of challenge. He said, ?Those who planted groundnuts early will struggle to harvest because the soil becomes too hard during dry spells. On the flip side, drying harvested maize will be easier.?

He stressed that to cushion the impact, farmers are to plant maize between July 10 and 15 and prepare for post-drought planting of crops like cowpea, melon, and select maize varieties from August 20 in states like Benue, Nasarawa, Niger and Taraba. Iorlamen also recommended the use of moisture-retaining seed treatments like Si.Sol.B, which can hold moisture in the soil for up to three or four weeks, a crucial advantage during uncertain weather conditions.

?I advise farmers to work hard in the next two weeks. Don?t miss this window. It is critical,? he maintained.

An agronomist and managing director of Jarfathad Farms, Minna, the Niger State capital, Mr Garba Attahiru Madami, said the crops he planted this rainy season were drought-tolerant following the forecast of flash drought. He advised other farmers to plant similar crops, lamenting low awareness of weather forecasts among farmers.

?What I do, and still doing since the prediction, which was from the beginning of the year, is to look for drought-tolerant varieties of crops. As I speak with you, I am on my cowpea farm. I have one hectare of cowpea farm in Paiko. So, I will advise farmers to plant a drought-tolerant variety of crops, whether it is maize, rice or any other crop that can tolerate drought. That way, the farmers would not lose and food security would also not be affected. And if possible, although it is expensive, if your farm is close to river or pond, such a farmer should get prepared to irrigate his crops,? he explained.

However, a Kano-based agronomist, Mr Kabir Jatau, said farmers should not panic as what is happening is just an element of climate change. He advised farmers to plant early-yielding seeds and adopt best agricultural practices that ensure prompt and effective fertiliser application, among other procedures.

AFAN raises concern

Meanwile, the leadership of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN) is concerned that the impact of the weather phenomenon could negatively affect the country?s farming cycle.

Ibrahim Kabiru, an architect and president the AFAN said farmers were being confronted by both artificial and natural problems, adding, ?For inputs such as fertilisers and mechanisation, which are not easily accessible to smallholder farmers, there are obvious impediments to productivity. The food system will certainly be affected by these phenomena, but there are efforts to suggest that the issues of mechanisation and other inputs supply could be said to be work in progress.?

Government?s action

The Commissioner for Agriculture in Plateau State, Bugama Samson, acknowledged the prediction of the drought, explaining that the state has been advising farmers ahead of the situation.

?We are aware of the predictions and there are plans in place on how farmers can take precautionary measures. We have been advising farmers to plant early-maturing crops to enable them grow before the predicted period. We are also advising farmers to take out insurance so that if the prediction comes to fruition, they won?t be severely affected. Additionally, we have advised them to dig dams close to their farms to enable irrigation in the event of drought. These are some of the measures we have put in place,? the commissioner assured.

Also in response to the situation, the Gombe State Government has commenced the distribution and subsidised sale of fertiliser to support farmers during the challenging season. (Weekend Trust)

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