The South-South region, which the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) boasted as its strongest forte since the new political dispensation in 1999, has fallen out of its control.

It dominated the six states in the geo-political zone, a feat no other party has achieved to date.

Making the most of his populist appeal as a former president of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, broke the PDP?s long dominion in 2008, when he emerged the governor of Edo State on the All Progressives Party (APC) platform. He presided over the state from 2008 to 2016, when he handed over to Godwin Obaseki, also of the APC at the time.

Obaseki, however, fell out with Oshiomhole not too long after and defected to the PDP in 2020, putting the PDP once more in control of the region.

But the PDP joy was short-lived. What many thought was an inadvertent act by Professor Benedict Ayade, the former governor of the Cross-River State, who decamped from the PDP to the APC in 2021, appeared to have set the tone for the APC?s newest capture of the oil-rich region.

Senator Liyel Imoke, a former governor of the state, who handed over to Ayade, never forgave Ayade for the 2021 deed that torpedoed the PDP. Imoke is among the coalition of political leaders across the country, who convened in Abuja during the week to take over the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as the new party of the opposition elements in the country.

Prof. Ayade, nevertheless, succeeded in installing an APC successor, Senator Bassey Otu, who took over from him in 2023. Cross River was the only APC state in the South-South after Obaseki?s first tenure, until Tinubu, using Oshiomhole as the troop commander, recaptured Edo State from the PDP in 2024.

As of the end of 2024, the South-South region had four states for the PDP and two states for the APC.

Between January and June 2025, the tables dramatically turned against the PDP, which is enmeshed in an internal crisis at the national level.

The state that looked ill-omened for the PDP to lose in the region as early as February this year was Rivers State, following an orchestrated agenda by President Bola Tinubu to capture the entire South-South region.

For almost two years, Siminalayi Fubara, the governor, and his godfather, Nyesom Wike, both of whom announced they had resolved their differences last month (June), with President Tinubu overseeing, battled each other. Despite the resolution, the PDP remains uncertain of Rivers State.

However, in a surprising twist between April and June, the PDP governors of Delta and Rivers States, Rt. Hon. Sheriff Oborevwori and Pastor Umo Eno, respectively, relinquished them to President Tinubu and the APC.

The APC currently controls the states of Cross River, Edo, Delta, and Akwa-Ibom in the South-South region. The fifth state, Rivers, is almost in the kitty, as part of the agreement Fubara reportedly reached with Tinubu and Wike for his return was to crossover to the APC.

Fubara has been on suspension as governor since March, but it is believed that the president, who brokered a political truce between him and Wike, will lift the suspension shortly. In the meantime, a military administrator, Vice Admiral Ibok-Ete Ibas (retd.), governs the state.

Tinubu?s mission to take over the sixth state of the region, Bayelsa State, has been activated. His strategists are talking to Senator Douye Diri, the only PDP governor standing in the South-South region, with Fubara trapped, to join the APC ship.

DELTA

The pointer that the PDP can no longer boast of controlling the South-South this year was the surprising defection of the Delta State governor, Sheriff Oborevwori, to the ruling APC.

For nearly 26 years, the PDP has maintained absolute dominance in the oil-rich state, with the APC posing a minor threat, except in the 2023 polls, where it won two senatorial seats, one House of Representatives seat, and seven House of Assembly seats.

Arising from many months of undisclosed consultations with President Tinubu, he rose one morning, handed over the Government House, Asaba, the seat of power in the state, and the entire state to the APC without an election.

The governor and other PDP leaders on the record attributed the political shocker to the crisis that has entangled the PDP at the national level. But many understood it was beyond the reason they had advanced.

Since April 28, when he defected, the APC has grown stronger in the state, rendering the PDP rudderless to date. At the national level, the party is still embroiled in crisis.

With Oborevwori?s change to the APC, the two parties shared three apiece, the six states of the South-South. It was two for the APC and three for the PDP before the Delta governor struck. The APC is gaining more ground instead of losing in the region.

Oborevwori had the support of his predecessor, Senator Ifeanyi Okowa, who plotted and executed the scheme with him. Okowa?s predecessor, Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan, on a medical trip overseas when the bargain was struck, returned and accepted the defection. He had once defected from the PDP to the APC in 2018, but he returned to the PDP in 2020. He has returned once more to the APC because of Oborevwori.

Only Chief James Ibori, among the surviving governors of the state, has not openly defected to the APC. But he is Tinubu?s strong political ally. His daughter, Hon. Erhiatake Ibori-Suenu, joined the APC in 2024 before Oborevwori joined the APC.

It is assumed that her father, Chief Ibori, approved of her joining the APC before she decamped with Senator Ovie Omo-Agege, a former Deputy President of the Senate, and other APC leaders in the state, on the ground to welcome her.

Not everybody accepts Oborevwori defecting from the traditional PDP state to the APC. The governor stated that, sitting in the front seat of the vehicle, he knew what he was seeing in front of him and was strongly convinced about the direction he was taking the state.

He did not find it too problematic to convince the political class in the state to join him in the APC transformation, as the majority followed him. Up till last week, former PDP members in the state were still registering and declaring for the APC.

Governor Oborevwori has, after his defection, assumed the leadership of the APC in the state, enjoying the support of key power brokers, including the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo (SAN), Senators Ede Dafinone, Ned Nwoko, Joel Onowakpo-Thomas, former Speaker of the State House of Assembly, Mr. Victor Ochei, founding leader of the party in the State, Olorogun O?tega Emerhor, the state party chairman, Elder Omeni Sobotie, among others.

Leaders of the party across the three senatorial districts have been falling over themselves in the last few weeks to endorse him (Oborevwori) and President Tinubu for a second term.

The PDP is almost like a rudderless party in the state since April 28, when the governor ditched it. But the national vice chairman of the party?s caretaker committee in the South-South, Elder Emmanuel Ogidi, is battling to redirect the party.

AKWA IBOM

Akwa Ibom became the fourth South-South state to bow to the APC manoeuvring. The governor, Pastor Umo Eno, announced his defection from the PDP to the APC on June 6.

Despite the false air of confidence he wore in marketing his defection, Governor Eno knew it was a hard sell.

Before the governor decamped, the APC in Akwa Ibom was almost non-existent and fragmented. Its only lifeline is the Senate President, Godswill Akpabio, who bears the burden of the party?s failure to subdue the PDP?s stronghold on the state.

Emmanuel Udom, the former governor, who consecrated Eno against all odds in 2023, has been tight-lipped on the defection just like cerebral ex-governor and acclaimed father of modern Akwa Ibom State, Obong Victor Attah.

While Udom is supposedly peeved and feels betrayed by Eno over the development, a PDP stalwart alleged, ?He (Udom) is hiding his state of mind as Eno would also leverage on his defection to protect his predecessor and benefactor from likely resurrection of the anti-graft probe on him.?

In contrast, Akpabio, the chief beneficiary and instigator of the defection, has been wallowing in verbosity as he and the incumbent Governor Eno committed to mutual leadership of the party, one calling the other ?my leader.?

?It is not only the governor and the PDP that will join us. All other political parties are going to join us. And for the first time in the history of Akwa Ibom, we?re most likely to have a rancour-free election come 2027, Akpabio told stakeholders.

An embittered Akwa Ibom PDP chieftain, analysing the sentiments, said, ?This was a governor whose predecessor, Udom Emmanuel, stepped on toes, particularly the toes of the Senate President, Godswill Akpabio, to install him with the support of other power brokers.?

?Now, Eno wants the entire Akwa Ibom to join Akpabio?s APC only on his terms. Why would that resonate with the people? He says it?s within his right to determine what?s best for Akwa Ibom.

Eno said his reason for defecting is in mutual understanding among himself, President Bola Tinubu, and Senator Akpabio to support one another to retain their respective offices come the 2027 election.

Under the new political realignment in the state, Eno and Akpabio jointly hold the ace, as the frontline power brokers, but other followers are unsure of what 2027 holds for them.

?In the coming months, the Eno and Akpabio romance could result in Eno ceding key appointments to Akpabio loyalists in the state as part of the understanding reached on the terms of the defections.

?Political watchers are projecting that the true test of the defection will be ascertained when the 2027 race begins. ?Predictably, there will be consequences, and Eno knows. Something will give, and we hope Akpabio doesn?t betray his trust and make him regret this move in the end,? a PDP chieftain voiced his fears.

RIVERS

In Rivers, the people already know that their stressed governor, Fubara, might have signed away the PDP-controlled state to the APC, with the role his godfather, Wike, is playing for Tinubu in Abuja.

Tinubu and Wike held Fubara by the balls until he made all the necessary concessions to enable the president to lift the suspension slammed on him in March.

With the official announcement of the resolution of the feud between him and Wike, President Tinubu is expected to terminate the emergency rule he imposed on Rivers State and reinstall Fubara soon.

The governor is most likely to join the APC train after his reinstatement. Save for the former governor, Rt. Hon. Rotimi Amaechi, who dumped the APC to join the ADC, the rebranded opposition party, Fubara has the authority of Wike to switch over to the APC.

However, Fubara?s impending return, according to sources, is to complete his tenure, not to run for a second tenure. Tinubu and Wike reportedly made him undertake not to seek a second term.

The governor is also barred from nominating even a councillor in the forthcoming local government election in the state.

Rivers would have long fallen to the APC even before Delta if not for the protracted dragging of the Wike and Fubara feud. Wike is already working for Tinubu?s re-election, but Amaechi, whom Wike succeeded, is opposed to Tinubu taking over Rivers State.

Fubara has a cordial relationship with ex-governor Peter Odili. However, he (Odili) can only empathize with him in his current predicament, for he does not have the power to stop Tinubu and Wike.

In the months ahead, Fubara would declare for the APC. As of now, Fubara is waiting for Tinubu to send Ibak packing, while Wike is also trying to ensure that there is no loophole for the governor to exploit.

BAYELSA

Although Bayelsa has been a PDP-controlled state since 1999, the gradual takeover of the South-South region by the APC has left many wondering about the imminent takeover of the predominantly riverine state.

Observers cited the recent visit of Governor Oborevwori alongside his predecessor, Senator Okowa, to Governor Diri at the Creek Haven, Bayelsa State Government House, shortly after the political tidal wave that altered the landscape in Delta State, as an indicator of the anticipated switch in Bayelsa State.

They insinuated that the duo came on a mission to persuade Diri to embrace the sweeping change in the zone and align the state with the APC-controlled center for a more robust integration of the BRACED states, which, incidentally, he was elected as its chairman during the South-South Governors meeting in Yenagoa, the state capital.

A top Bayelsa government official told Saturday Vanguard that the visit of the Delta governor and his predecessor was private and had nothing to do with the rumored plan by the Bayelsa governor to jump ship.

?The APC in Bayelsa State is factionalized into camps, one loyal to Heineken Lokpobiri, the current Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), and another to the immediate past Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Chief Timipre Sylva,? he said dismissively.

But Governor Diri has repeatedly expressed the readiness of his administration to partner with the Federal Government to turn around the fortunes of the state and left anyone in doubt of his admiration for President Tinubu, especially after the president approved the second phase of the Nembe-Brass road, designed to link far-flung communities on the Atlantic coast of the state to mainland Yenagoa.

The Diri administration is currently handling the first phase of the project, which spans 21 kilometers across the vast swathe of mangrove swamps.

Speaking at his country home in Sampou, Kolokuma/Opokuma Local Government Area, during a thank-you visit by the member representing Southern Ijaw Federal Constituency, Rodney Ambaiowei, and other stakeholders, Diri denied speculation that he was headed for APC, saying he was neither disturbed nor distracted by rumors.

The governor, who acknowledged that his recent presence at the inauguration of a section of the Lagos-Calabar coastal road project may have contributed to the speculation, reassured his supporters that any political decision would be made in consultation with the people who elected him.

?If for any reason there has to be a movement, you are the people who will advise me because you voted for me. The decision to move or not will be made based on the interests of the Ijaw nation and Bayelsa State, not on my interests. So, do not mind what is trending; when the right time comes, you will hear from us,? he stated.

Some analysts have argued that, unlike Okowa and Oborevwori, who engineered the Delta mass exodus from the PDP to the APC, the Bayelsa scenario is quite different, especially as it was the PDP that gave Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, an indigene of Bayelsa State, the platform to become president of the country.

Senator Seriake Dickson, a former governor of the state, does not appear as someone who would support Bayelsa surrendering to the APC.

Also, a prominent member of the National Assembly from the state, who spoke with Saturday Vanguard, dismissed the rumored planned mass defection in the state as ?mere street talk,? insisting that the PDP remains intact.

However, there was an unconfirmed report that the majority of members of the state House of Assembly had endorsed Diri?s defection to the APC last week.

The PDP currently has 19 members in the 24-member legislature while the opposition has five members.

A party leader said the governor had mooted to the Speaker, Rt. Hon Abraham Ngobere, about his impending plan.

The governor?s purported consultation with the state?s National Assembly caucus was not too fruitful, as the House caucus rebuffed the move.

EDO

The quest of the former governor of Edo State, Mr. Godwin Obaseki, for a new set of politicians to take over the state, among other reasons, catalyzed the PDP losing the heartbeat state to the APC.

Edo, as earlier stated, had been a PDP until Oshiomhole upturned the applecart through the court in 2008 after he was declared the loser of the 2007 governorship election.

He handed over to Obaseki, whom he imposed on the party as the APC candidate.

Obaseki had brushes with Oshiomhole and many other leaders of the APC. As the then-national chairman of the APC, Oshiomhole used his powers to deny him a return ticket ahead of the 2020 gubernatorial election.

Despite the opposition and massive mobilization for the election by the APC, Obaseki won his second term and brought PDP back to power in the state, 12 years after Oshiomhole interrupted it.

The renewed crisis in the PDP broke out immediately after Obaseki?s re-election, as some PDP leaders grumbled that he did not consult them in making his appointments. They said he acted alone in choosing the Secretary to the State Government (SSG), the Chief of Staff, Special Advisers, political aides, and others.

Obaseki appointed a new crop of aides unfamiliar to the politicians and empowered them to take over the political space.

A prominent leader in the Edo Central senatorial district told Saturday Vanguard that Obaseki was not ready to engage them as politicians, adding, ?But he sends these young boys to call us for meetings and then hand down the governor?s directives. I decided to leave politics and face my business.?

Even the likes of Chief Dan Orbih, a former state chairman and South-South vice chairman of the party, disagreed with Obaseki, as he and other party leaders also disclosed that the governor never consulted them before appointments were made.

Obaseki is believed to have waged a war on the political class with the view that his new crop of leaders could do the magic and ensure that his preferred candidate won the 2024 governorship election.

His battles with the political class culminated in the impeachment of Hon. Philip Shaibu as his deputy after relocating Shaibu?s office from the Government House. He was never reinstated despite the courts nullifying his suspension.

Obaseki also did not strategize with the influential PDP leaders on his choice of preferred governorship candidate. He, however, informed a few PDP leaders, who could not challenge him, that the candidate would come from the Edo Central senatorial district and that it should be Asue Ighodalo.

Many PDP governorship hopefuls, including his estranged deputy, Philip Shaibu, Ogbeide-Ihama, Omosede Igbinedion, Anselm Ojezua, and others, were schemed out of the party?s governorship primary election.

The aftermath of the primary election triggered the mass defections of political bigwigs from the party.

Hon Charles Idahosa and other political juggernauts predicted a huge loss for the PDP. He and others publicly aligned with Dan Orbih?s Legacy PDP before officially joining the APC.

Despite the misgivings that greeted the APC from its controversial primary election that produced Senator Monday Okpebholo and the numerous gaffes that greeted the campaigns, the APC and Okpebholo terminated the PDP?s temporary return to power in the state.

Observers believed that Obaseki threw away what the party regained after 12 years outside the corridors of power in Edo State.

An elder of the party told Saturday Vanguard, ?Obaseki denied us victory in 2024. He divided the party; he did not appreciate the role we played when the APC pushed him out in 2020.?

?He came with a strategy that wanted to obliterate the existing political class and replace it with his kind of politicians. Of course, he betrayed the party, and someone like me was not shocked that we lost the election, and now the party is directionless.?

Governor Monday Okpekholo hit the ground running in the state. Despite the initial misgivings about him, he is rebuilding confidence in the APC, which Oshiomhole heralded in the state.

CROSS-RIVER STATE

Mr. Donald Duke, who governed the Cross-River State from 1999 to 2007, handed over to Senator Liyel Imoke, who chose Senator Ben Ayade in 2015 to run as the PDP governorship candidate.

Ayade almost created a misunderstanding between Duke and Imoke. Senator Ayade won the election and completed his first tenure in 2019, but two years into his second tenure in 2021, he defected to the APC.

Senator Ayade, as the sitting governor, frustrated the attempts by the PDP leaders to reclaim the state from the APC in 2023. He chose Senator Bassey Otu as his successor and handed over power to him in 2023.

APC-4, PDP-2 AS OF YESTERDAY

It appears that Cross River will remain an APC state for a longer time than Duke and Imoke had thought. The Delta and Akwa-Ibom States joined it, and Edo State in the last two months. Rivers State may join the APC states in a matter of months if Fubara performs as planned after his approaching reinstatement. And Bayelsa State may be the last South-South state to capitulate. (Saturday Vanguard)

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