Canada has long been a beacon for international students seeking world-class education and vibrant multicultural campuses.

However, recent policy changes, including stricter study permit caps introduced in 2024 and tightened further in 2025, have dramatically reduced the number of new international students arriving in the country.

According to new projections by ApplyBoard, a leading international education platform, Canada is set to approve just 124,000 new study permits in 2025?a staggering 50% drop from 2024 and nearly 70% less than 2023 levels.

With over 60% of study permits now allocated to extensions for students already in Canada, the flow of fresh international talent is slowing to a trickle, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of Canadian higher education.

In this in-depth analysis, we explore the impact of Canada?s study permit caps, break down the latest trends in student visa applications, approvals, and issuances, and offer actionable strategies for Canadian institutions to navigate this challenging landscape.

Whether you?re a student, educator, or policymaker, this guide provides critical insights into the future of international education in Canada.

Why Are International Student Numbers Plummeting in Canada?

Canada?s international student population has been a cornerstone of its education system, contributing billions to the economy and enriching campus diversity.

However, the introduction of study permit caps in 2024, followed by a 10% reduction in 2025, has reshaped the landscape.

These caps, combined with other policy shifts like increased proof-of-funds requirements and changes to post-graduation work permits (PGWP), have created significant barriers for prospective students.

A closer look at the key factors driving this decline:

Stricter Study Permit Caps: In 2024, Canada aimed to reduce new study permit approvals by 35%, but the actual drop was closer to 45%.

For 2025, the cap was set at 437,000 issued study permits, including both new permits and extensions.

However, projections suggest only 163,000 will go to new international students?a 56% year-over-year decline in early 2025 issuances.

Inclusion of Extensions in Cap: A critical shift in 2025 is the inclusion of study permit extensions in the cap, which now account for over 60% of approvals.

Extensions are granted to students already in Canada who are continuing their studies, switching programs, or changing institutions.

This has drastically reduced the number of permits available for new students.

Falling Approval Rates: The approval rate for new study permits plummeted to 33% in January?April 2025, down from 47% in 2024.

This means fewer than 31,000 new permits were approved in the first four months of the year?a 70% drop compared to the same period in 2024.

Declining Applications: Student interest in Canada is waning, with new study permit applications dropping 30% in early 2025 compared to 2024 and 70% compared to 2023.

Applications for bachelor?s programs fell 39%, while graduate programs saw a 32% decline.

Policy Uncertainty: Changes to PGWP eligibility and higher financial requirements have made Canada less attractive compared to competitors like Australia, the UK, and the US, where interest in study abroad remains stronger.

These trends signal a seismic shift in Canada?s international education sector, with ripple effects for institutions, local economies, and the country?s global reputation as a study destination.

Breaking Down the 2025 Study Permit Trends

To understand the full scope of this transformation, let?s examine the three stages of the study permit process?applications, approvals, and issuances?based on the latest Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) data and ApplyBoard?s projections.

1. Study Permit Applications: A Sharp Drop in Student Interest

Applications are the first indicator of student demand, reflecting how many prospective students are considering Canada.

In January?April 2025, new applications fell by 30% compared to the same period in 2024, with significant declines across all study levels:

Colleges: Already hit hard by 2024 caps, colleges continue to see the steepest drop in demand, as many programs are now excluded from PGWP eligibility.

Universities: Bachelor?s program applications dropped 39%, while graduate programs saw a 32% decline, signalling a broader erosion of Canada?s appeal even among high-calibre students.

Other Programs: Non-degree and certificate programs also experienced reduced interest, as caps and financial requirements deterred applicants.

This decline in applications is particularly concerning because it foreshadows lower enrollment in future years, given the months-long timeline from application to arrival.

Search engine data further confirms that interest in studying in Canada is falling faster than in competing destinations, suggesting students are exploring alternatives.

2. Study Permit Approvals: A Historic Low

Approvals determine how many students receive permission to study in Canada.

In early 2025, the approval rate for new study permits dropped to 33%, a 14-percentage-point decline from 2024?s 47%.

This resulted in fewer than 31,000 approvals from January to April?a nearly 70% year-over-year drop.

Several factors likely contribute to this low approval rate:

Higher Proof-of-Funds Requirements: Students must now demonstrate greater financial resources, which may exclude qualified applicants from lower-income backgrounds.

Stricter Scrutiny: IRCC?s focus on reducing temporary residents has led to more rigorous application reviews, increasing refusals.

Cap Constraints: With extensions consuming a larger share of the cap, fewer slots remain for new students.

ApplyBoard?s platform, which uses AI to match students with programs and pre-screen applications, achieved an 82% approval rate for its students in 2024?far above the sector average.

This highlights the importance of strong applications in navigating the current environment.

3. Study Permit Issuances: Fewer Students Arriving

Issuances reflect the number of students who arrive in Canada to begin their studies, making it the most direct measure of enrollment.

In January?April 2025, new study permit issuances fell by 56% compared to the same period in 2024.

If this trend continues, ApplyBoard projects just 163,000 new international students will arrive in 2025?the lowest in a non-pandemic year since 2016.

This sharp decline contrasts with 2024, when issuances remained relatively stable early in the year due to pre-cap approvals.

The 2025 data reflects the full impact of caps, extensions, and lower approval rates, signaling a significant reduction in new student arrivals.

The Rise of Onshore Students: A Double-Edged Sword

One of the most striking trends in 2025 is the dominance of study permit extensions, which are projected to account for over 60% of all approvals?triple IRCC?s initial estimate of 20%.

These extensions go to students already in Canada who are:

Continuing their current program.
Switching to a new program or institution.
Transitioning to a different level of study (e.g., from undergraduate to graduate studies).

This shift toward ?onshore? students has helped Canada approach its 2025 cap of 437,888 issued permits, with projections estimating 420, total issuances.

However, it comes with significant drawbacks:

Short-Term Stability: Onshore students maintain enrollment numbers in the near term, preserving campus diversity and supporting institutions facing cap constraints.

Long-Term Risk: With fewer new students arriving, the pool of potential extension applicants will shrink in 2026 and beyond, exacerbating enrollment declines.

The reliance on extensions also masks a critical issue: Canada?s domestic postsecondary enrollment has already fallen by over 5% in the past decade.

Without robust international student inflows, total student numbers could decline for years, threatening institutional budgets and program offerings.

Strategies for Canadian Institutions to Thrive Amid Caps

Despite the challenges, Canadian institutions can adapt to attract top international talent.

Here are actionable strategies to maximize enrollment and conversion rates:

Leverage Technology for Recruitment:
Partner with platforms like ApplyBoard, which uses AI to match students with programs and pre-screen applications, boosting approval rates.
Streamline application processes to reduce administrative burdens and improve student experience.
Enhance Transparency and Support:
Provide clear information on IRCC policies, financial requirements, and study permit processes.
Offer localized support for housing, on-campus jobs, and post-graduation pathways to ease student transitions.
Promote Canada?s Value Proposition:
Highlight Canada?s welcoming campuses, high-quality education, and pathways to permanent residency.
Collaborate with government and industry to launch global marketing campaigns showcasing Canada?s strengths.
Target High-Potential Markets:
Focus recruitment efforts on countries with growing demand for international education, such as India, Nigeria, and Vietnam.
Tailor programs to meet the needs of these markets, such as in-demand fields like technology and healthcare.
Optimize Cap Allocations:
Work with ApplyBoard to ensure cap spaces are allocated to students most likely to enroll, reducing wasted slots.
Prioritize graduate and high-value programs that align with IRCC?s cap exemptions.

By adopting these strategies, institutions can mitigate the impact of caps and position themselves as leaders in international education.

Looking Ahead: Will Canada?s Caps Persist?

The Canadian government has signaled its commitment to reducing temporary residents to 5% of the population by 2027, suggesting that study permit caps will remain in place for 2026 at current levels.

However, recent statements from Minister Diab affirming the value of international students offer a glimmer of hope for policy adjustments.

To reverse the decline in student numbers, Canada must balance its immigration goals with the needs of its education sector.

Potential solutions include:

Exempting Graduate Students: Prioritizing master?s and PhD students in cap allocations could attract high-caliber talent without straining resources.

Streamlining Approvals: Reducing proof-of-funds requirements or simplifying application reviews could boost approval rates.

Expanding PGWP Eligibility: Restoring work permit access for more programs could make Canada more competitive.

Investing in Promotion: A national campaign to rebuild Canada?s reputation as a study destination could counter declining interest.

Without significant changes, ApplyBoard projects that Canada will fall short of its 2026 cap targets, with even fewer new students arriving.

This could trigger a multi-year downturn in campus enrollment, with lasting consequences for institutions and communities.

A Critical Moment for Canadian Education

Canada?s international student caps have reshaped its higher education landscape, slashing new student arrivals and threatening the sector?s long-term viability.

With just 124,000 new study permits projected for 2025, and over 60% of permits going to extensions, institutions face unprecedented challenges in maintaining enrollment and diversity.

However, by embracing innovative recruitment strategies, enhancing student support, and advocating for policy reforms, Canadian institutions can navigate this crisis and continue to attract the world?s best talent.

The time to act is now?collaboration between educators, policymakers, and industry leaders will be critical to securing Canada?s place as a global education hub. (APPLYBOARD)

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