Agricultural stakeholders reckon that the threat of hunger persists in Nigeria despite recording a N668.34bn agricultural surplus and have called for improved food processing and support for local farmers.

The value of agricultural exports surpassed imports by N668.34bn in the first quarter of 2025, according to the foreign trade data for Q1 2025 from the National Bureau of Statistics. The agricultural surplus reflects growing agribusiness trade following the Federal Government?s 150-day duty-free import window boost.

Nigeria has sustained a high level of food importation. Agricultural imports dropped by 5.02 per cent to N1.04 tn in Q1 2025 from N1.09 tn in Q4 2024, but the year-on-year review shows a wider margin. Imports grew by 12.52 per cent from N920.54bn recorded in Q1 2024.

Stakeholders, including the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the Agricultural & Allied Group and the All Farmers Association of Nigeria, have cautiously lauded the country?s performance in agricultural exports, which grew by 10.63 per cent to N1.7 tn from N1.54 tn in the preceding quarter.

In separate interviews with The PUNCH, they stated that while high agricultural exports signal good fortunes for agribusinesses, raw commodity exports mean that the threat of hunger lingers as the lean season nears.

Chairman of the LCCI Agricultural & Allied Group, Tunde Banjoko, maintained that only improved food processing capacity can secure Nigeria on its path to food security. He restated that Nigeria has not allayed fears of increased food prices in the lean season.

Banjoko explained that agribusinesses? search for foreign exchange and increasing demand for raw materials, such as cornflour by pharmaceutical manufacturers, drove the N668.34bn agricultural surplus.

Banjoko noted that farmers are poised to enjoy export dividends as they meet the quality that buyers seek.

He said, ?Everybody is trying to earn in forex now, hence the push for exports in the agric space. That?s why, for example, the price of most of our commodities, such as cashew, went up this year, even though cocoa came down. There is a demand for our product in many countries, especially in Asia.

?Africa appears to have raw materials and commodities that companies need. They?ve been looking inward, and many farmers have taken advantage of that, which is a good thing.?

He urged the Federal Government to build the country?s food processing capacity, stating, ?We should start talking about how to export not only raw materials but processed materials.?

He confirmed that stakeholders? prediction of a food price hike by mid-year, as reported by The PUNCH in March, was still viable, decrying the insecurity in Nigeria?s key food-producing states worsened the hunger threat.

?That prediction is still holding water as we look at the lean season. The United Nations World Food Programme estimated that 33.1 million Nigerians are projected to face acute food insecurity in mid-2025, and that is when people are not harvesting. It is coupled with the floods in Niger State that have ravaged and destroyed lots of places and this continuous crisis in Benin-City and Plateau States,? Banjoko noted.

He explained that since the crisis hurts the food supplied to the markets, one ?cannot say we have respite until the price of food in the markets has come down. That?s the way to measure, not on paper. Until we get to the markets and get food at the best rates, then we can say that we have probably tamed the inflation of food.?

Notably, the LCCI Agricultural Group chair argued that the ?668 bn surplus is hardly a real surplus, observing that year on year, importation has grown by 12.52 per cent, reflecting a need for more valuable exports.

?If you compare the data year over year, you realise that we have imported more than we are exporting. You can?t just look at last quarter. Before the end of the year, our exports may exceed our imports in the agro-space, given that the previous quarter showed reduced imports. That will be a good sign,? he explained.

However, Banjoko warned that Nigeria cannot over-rely on other nations to provide its basic raw materials and grow to the point where it imports only what it does not have.

?No nation in the world is self-sufficient. I think we have to stress that in our conversation. Even the biggest economy still imports and relies on other nations,? he said. ?But the question should be, are we importing things that we have a comparative advantage over? Are we importing things that we could have produced??

Meanwhile, the President of AFAN, Kabir Ibrahim, advocated for data-gathering inclusiveness and support for subsistence farmers. Like Banjoko, he lauded the impact of the duty-free import window, saying, ?A lot of those things that were imported into the country are in the market, and that is helping to cushion the inflation.?

Ibrahim stated that the surplus may not present a comprehensive picture of the sector, as he argued that the data that the NBS works with may not cover the informal aspects of the trade. He said, ?Nigerians must understand that most of the businesses of export and import in Nigeria are not properly covered because they are informal because of the porosity of our borders and non-compliance with the institutional framework for export and import.?

AFAN?s president noted that despite some farmers reporting that they are getting value for their products, the consumers are complaining about inflation.

?Most Nigerians still complain of a harsher economic trend,? he explained. ?The farmer is happy when he sells and can buy and meet their other needs. But not everybody has got that surplus to send to the market and derive anything from it, as a majority of Nigerian farmers are doing it at a subsistence level.?

According to the NBS, the total value of trade in agricultural goods in Q1 2025 stood at N2.74 tn. The most exported commodities included standard-quality cocoa beans valued at N719.91 bn, superior-quality cocoa beans at N508.27 bn and cashew nuts in shell at N157.63 bn. Others were sesame seeds valued at N128.18 bn and natural cocoa butter at N80.05 bn.

Agricultural products were mainly exported to Europe at N1.13 tn, followed by exports to Asia, valued at N431.15 bn. Main agricultural goods imported in Q1 2025 included durum wheat from Russia and Argentina, valued at N111.67 bn and N47.62 bn, respectively. It was followed by ?Soya beans (excluding seeds)? valued at N45.04bn and N25.71bn from the United States and Brazil, respectively, and frozen Jack and horse mackerel meat, valued at N50.08bn from Chile. (The PUNCH)

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