The ongoing Israeli-Iran conflict has triggered an upward adjustment in petrol prices by 10 marketers as crude oil rose 8.8 per cent to $74 per barrel from $68 per barrel.

Crude prices are expected to rise further should Iran carry out its threat to block the Strait of Hormuz, which is responsible for the shipment of more than 20 per cent of global oil and gas.

According to maritime sources, the threat of Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz would negatively impact global trade.

The 10 oil marketers that adjusted depot prices included Aiteo, Pinnacle, Dangote, MENJ, Swift, Rainoil, First Royal, Emadeb, First Fortune and Ever.

Emadeb made the highest adjustment to N845 from N827 per litre, indicating an increase of 2.18 per cent while Ever implemented the least adjustment to N870 from N866 per litre, showing a marginal increase of 0.46 per cent.

Also, Aiteo adjusted its depot price to N840 per litre from N835 per litre; Pinnacle adjusted to N845 per litre from N829 per litre while Dangote Petroleum Refinery adjusted to N840 per litre from N830 per litre.

MENJ, Swift and Rainoil (Lagos) adjusted prices to N850 from N810 per litre, N845 from N830 per litre and to N850 from N840 per litre, respectively.

First Royal and First Fortune also adjusted their depot prices to N838 from N826 per litre and N860 from N850 per litre, respectively.

According to Petroleumprice.ng, the depot prices of petroleum products would continue to rise in the coming weeks, due to instability of the global oil market.

There were fears, yesterday, that more attacks and counter attacks could culminate in prolonged instability, capable of impacting the global oil market.

According to OPEC, ?Apart from petroleum, the country?s (Iran) other natural resources include natural gas, coal, chromium, copper, iron ore, lead, manganese, zinc and sulphur.?

While the United States has called for calm, Iran has vowed a ?harsh response,? increasing uncertainty in the market.

Projecting on how the crisis will further impact crude oil, global banking giant, JP Morgan puts its base-case oil price forecast for 2025 at more than $60 per barrel, adding that prices could hit between $120 and $130 per barrel in the event of worst-case outcomes such as military conflict and a closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Highlighting possible impacts of the Israeli-Iran War on the Nigerian economy, the Director/Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr. Muda Yusuf, said: ?The outbreak of war between Israel and Iran has added a troubling dimension to the challenges of an already floundering global economy.

?For the Nigerian economy, the implications are mixed. The development portends a combination of risks and upsides for the economy.

?A major driver of energy prices in Nigeria is the global crude oil price. With the outbreak of the Israeli-Iranian war, crude oil prices had surged to $75 per barrel from $65 per barrel a week before. This is a 15% jump within days. This has obvious implications for petroleum product prices globally.

Economies around the world [Nigeria inclusive] would witness a surge in the price of petrol, diesel, jet fuel, gas and related products in the near term. This would have far reaching implications for many economies and businesses.

?Energy cost is a major factor in the Nigerian inflation equation. It impacts production cost, logistics cost, transportation costs, and the cost of power generation. This presents an inflationary scenario. These additional costs would be passed on to final consumers, depending on the degree of consumer resistance.

?There is also a global inflation dimension. Energy prices have global inflationary implications. Therefore, there is also an expectation of imported inflation in the unfolding geopolitical scenario.

?High inflation drives interest rates as monetary authorities respond to the inflation outcomes of current geopolitical headwinds. A tighter monetary policy regime is expected in Nigeria and other monetary jurisdictions. The expectation is that economies around the world may experience renewed pressures on interest rates. Higher global interests could adversely impact portfolio flows with implications for foreign reserves.?

He said: ?High energy cost, elevated inflationary pressures and a spike in interest rates are all headwinds that could undermine the profitability of businesses in the economy. Investors in the non-oil sector are likely to be more vulnerable in the present situation. Nigerian firms with strong business links in the Middle East and those with strong supply chain linkages in the region would be vulnerable at this time because of the current instability in the region.

?There is a risk of high monetary growth with an increase in revenue from the oil sector. Money supply increases in the Nigerian economy as oil revenue increases because of the monetization of oil receipts. This could pose additional inflation risk and exchange rate depreciation risk. This may provoke a tighter monetary policy stance, which could result in difficult credit conditions for businesses in the economy.

?The already floundering global economy would be adversely impacted by this new geopolitical crisis.

Global stock markets are reflecting this ominous outlook ? the Dow Jones, S & P, and Nasdaq are trending downwards. There is a flight by investors towards ?safe haven assets? as global uncertainty heightens. However, in Nigeria, there is historically a positive correlation between crude oil prices, GDP growth, and stock market performance. The outlook for the Nigerian stock market is therefore likely to be positive in the current context.?

He also said: ?If the current conflict persists and escalates, the Nigerian economy may record upsides in a number of areas. The surge in crude oil price would impact on foreign exchange earnings, oil being the biggest forex earner for the country. This would even be more impactful if output performance improves. Crude oil price has surged to $75 per which is about 15% higher than before the outbreak of the Israeli?Iran conflict. This development would also positively impact the country?s foreign reserves; ensure better forex liquidity and ultimately the stability of the naira exchange rate.

?The oil sector currently accounts for about 50% of government revenue. An improvement in crude oil price would therefore have a significant impact on government revenue. An improvement in revenue would positively impact fiscal consolidation and hopefully moderate the growth of the fiscal deficit.

Investments in the oil and gas sector would post better returns if the conflict persists. High oil price is good news for upstream oil and gas investors.?

On his part, Professor Wumi Iledare, a globally respected petroleum economist and former President of the United States Association for Energy Economics (USAEE) and International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE), said: ?As global oil prices edge closer to the $90 per barrel mark, energy markets are once again in bullish territory?buoyed by supply discipline from OPEC+, geopolitical tension in the Middle East, and resilient global demand. For Nigeria, the world?s 15th largest crude exporter, this upward swing offers a potential windfall for foreign exchange earnings and budget support.?

Prof. Iledare, also a former President of the Nigerian Association for Energy Economics (NAEE), and Africa Regional Director and Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE), said: ?Brent crude, the international benchmark, is currently trading within the $73?$74 range, with analysts warning that prices could cross the symbolic $100 threshold if conditions tighten further. Heightened tensions in oil transit corridors, particularly the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz, coupled with underinvestment in new supply, are contributing to the rally.

?Oil prices can spike in the short term, but sustainability depends on fundamentals. For Nigeria, the key is not just high prices, but how prudently the windfall is managed. Without fiscal discipline and refining capacity, high prices may offer temporary relief but not lasting transformation.

?In Nigeria, rising oil prices could ease fiscal pressures and improve dollar liquidity. Still, analysts warn that unless structural reforms are accelerated?particularly in refining, subsidy management, and energy governance?the benefits of another oil rally could again slip through the cracks.?

Crude oil price rise will be temporary, expert

Similarly, the partner at Kreston Pedabo, Olufemi Idowu said while the government would see a rise in revenue, the gains would be temporary.

Idowu pointed out that with the crises in the Niger Delta and with Nigeria having used most of its crude oil production to take loans, the government would benefit much.

According to him, ?the price of crude oil has increased and because our budget was based on $75 barrels per day, from the revenue side any price above $75 is to the advantage of Nigeria. As a country, if we are able to maintain stability in the Niger Delta and if we are able to meet our production quota from OPEC, I think it is a positive for us.

?This means that we will have more inflow of revenue. Again, the other side is that if we are able to take advantage of the crisis in the middle east, and increase our revenue, it would mean that we are earning more foreign exchange which will help us to have stability of the naira. There wouldn?t be more pressure on the naira. In recent times, we have seen the naira appreciate and this trend will continue if we can take advantage of this situation?.

He however cautioned that the gains will be tempered by the forward sales of Nigeria?s crude oil for loans.

?We have used a lot of our crude to obtain loans from international banks and this will lower our gains. So, it is difficult to say that we are going to take advantage of the situation. We have been through this route before during the Ukraine-Russia war, the crisis did not necessarily translate into a major revenue surge for Nigeria. I think the optimism is a temporary thing?.

Idowu warned the major impact will occur in the downstream sector as the price of petroleum products would likely rise following the deregulation of the sector, pointing out Dangote Refinery still buys its crude oil feedstock at the international price.

?Despite the Crude for Naira policy, Dangote still buys at international price and if it is buying at international price, it means that crude oil sales to Dangote will be at a higher price. This means that the pump price of petrol is going to increase. And since the government is not subsidising despite having more money because it has been deregulated, it means the cost of goods and services will go up.

?So, why on one hand, the government may be celebrating higher revenue, the likely impact on consumers may be something they would not want to wish for?, he added.

On his part, the National President of the Oil and Gas Services Providers Association of Nigeria, OGSPAN, Mazi Colman Obasi, said: ?The tension could be beneficial to Nigeria as well as other oil and gas producing and exporting countries as crude oil prices would likely be in excess of $75 per barrel.

?The nation?s 2025 budget was based on $75 per barrel and more than two million barrels per day output.? (Vanguard)

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