Millions of Rivers people, especially the loyalists of Governor Siminalayi Fubara, on Thursday, June 12, had their hope dashed as they had marked out the date to be a moment of wild jubilation and partying.

The expectation everywhere was that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu would use the opportunity of that date to reinstate all the democratic institutions in the state that he had suspended on March 18.

The suspension of Fubara, his deputy, Prof Ngozi Odu, and the state House of Assembly was sequel to the political tension in the state which saw the forces loyal to the governor and lawmakers aligned to the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Nyesom Wike at daggers drawn but the President was able to diffuse by that decision of the declaration of a state of emergency in the state.

Several bookmakers had predicted that, given his democratic posturing, Tinubu was expected to recall the suspended governor either on May 29, a date that marked two years of the current elected officials, or June 12, which has come to be known as the National Democracy Day, NDD.

But the question many are asking is what could have stopped the President from reinstating the governor on June 12 and repositioning Rivers on the path of democracy?

Leaked plan

Given the pressure mounted on the President by eminent Nigerians and knowing the damage the imposition of the state of emergency could have on his reputation, Tinubu was alleged to have put the machinery in place to reinstate the suspended governor without minding whose ox is gored.

The two high stake meetings held in London and Tinubu?s Lagos residence were said to be pointers to the looming recall of the suspended officials.

But sources revealed that the governor?s loyalists, who got wind of the plan, began to jubilate ahead of June 12 even when it was still weeks away.

This jubilation, it was learnt, did not go down well with the camp of Wike, who then pulled all the strings to ensure that the suspension was not lifted until the fulfillment of a certain agreement.

A source disclosed that even Fubara did not keep the plan under wraps as he divulged in one of his public outings that he and all the suspended officials would be returned back to government very soon.

The source noted that the announcement of the governor?s return was to be made by Tinubu on June 12. ?The process of the handing over of power would have taken one or two weeks?, a prominent activist said.

However, Fubara appears now to be walking a tight rope to his reinstatement.

The governor seems to have been surrounded by landmines every step of the way by those forces that want him out of power by all means necessary.

Only last week, the factional Chairman of the All Progressives Congress, APC, in Rivers State, Chief Tony Okocha, declared that even if Fubara joins the party, he would still not escape the hammer of impeachment.

Recall that one of the alleged cards on the table of reconciliation when the governor met with the President in London was that he should toe the footsteps of the governors of Delta and Akwa Ibom states by dumping the PDP for the APC.

But while that ?offer? was still under consideration, Okocha decried that Fubara was yet to consult him and those who are aggrieved by his action or inaction as governor for true reconciliation.

?If Fubara decides to join the APC, it has nothing to do with the state of emergency in Rivers State. His sins cannot be forgiven because he came to our party. It is not true?, the party Chairman said.

?He has not spoken to me. He will enter the party through the door, not the window. Not only him.?

Speaking on the presidential directive that the suspended governor should go back home and ensure the return of peace in the state, Okocha said Fubara had failed to carry out the order.

?I can confirm that there is no reconciliation effort currently underway in Rivers?, he said.

?The suspended Governor Fubara has not made any move to reconcile with the lawmakers. Only genuine reconciliation can save him from Impeachment, as the Supreme Court judgment stands?.

?Genuine peace?

Also, in his last media chat, Wike had said that Fubara was not keen about a genuine peace to resolve the crisis in the state.

The FCT Minister said the day after the suspended governor came to his Abuja residence with two prominent Yoruba political leaders to talk truce, he had not seen the governor again.

?He has the yam. He has the knife. If you want genuine peace, we will know. If you don?t want genuine peace, it is still your choice?, he said.

But a day after Wike spoke, Fubara was seen in social media posing in photos with Tinubu during his visit to Bourdillon during the Salah holiday celebrations.??

Ibas and LG elections

After successfully defending his N1.4 trillion budget before the National Assembly, the Sole Administrator of Rivers, Vice Admiral Ibok-Etteh Ibas, has been touted to have received expressed instructions to do everything within his powers to conduct local government elections in Rivers before his exit in September.

This, according to sources, is to ensure that the political structure of the state, irrespective of political party, will be returned into the grips of the FCT Minister as a veritable tool to work out the modalities for the 2027 general elections.

Wike had earlier in Abuja declared that he would lead the campaign train of Tinubu?s re-election bid in 2027.

The Minister has been at loggerheads with the leadership of his party, the PDP, since 2023.

And despite the claim that Fubara has agreed to work for the President in 2027, it is yet to be seen on what platform or which political structure he would deploy to get the job done.

And with the local government elections expected to go the way of Wike, what role will the governor then play to fulfill his own part of the bargain?

Only last Thursday, Tinubu transmitted to the Senate, for confirmation, members of the Rivers State Independent Electoral Commission, RSIEC, members of the Local Government Civil Service Commission, and Rivers State Civil Service Commission among others.

So, with just three more months to the end of the initial six months of the emergency rule in Rivers, Fubara may be tactically delayed from returning to power until the local government elections are conducted.

By this time, he will only return to occupy a political time-bomb that will in no way be favorable to his political career.

Why Wike won?t let go

Wike?s insistence to hold onto the soul of the state political structure is borne out of the fact that his plan of getting the 2027 presidential ticket of the PDP appears to have been scuttled.

This is more so because his once political ally now turned arch-enemy, Seyi Makinde, the governor of Oyo State, is also said to be keen about the same ticket.

A credible source in the party hinted that Wike?s scheme was to ensure that once the ticket gets into his kitty, ?he would step down for Tinubu to complete his second term in the spirit that the presidency still remains in the South for eight years?.

Again, with former governor Rotimi Amaechi likely to indicate interest to lead the opposition parties? coalition against Tinubu in 2027, it is likely that the political battle in Rivers will be vitriolic in every sense.

Obviously, with the declaration of a state of emergency, the people of the state may possibly want to vent their anger in 2027 by voting against the President.

Hence, the entrance of Amaechi into the fray may constitute a herculean task for Tinubu and Wike to win the state.

On Tuesday, an elated Tinubu, during the commissioning of the renovated International Conference Center, ICC, Abuja, asked Wike to join him in the APC because he was an asset that no party would love to lose.

Fubara hopeless?

Everyone appears to be fed up with the situation in Rivers.

The elders have become tongue-tied. Protesters have rested their placards just as rights activists have run out of ideas.

Except the President chooses to take everyone by surprise, the situation in Rivers has snowballed to a state of hopelessness.

But the likes of a former Deputy National Chairman of the PDP, Chief Bode George, have not rested on their oars in appealing to Tinubu to end the emergency rule in Rivers.

?I also appeal to him, in the spirit of my maternal grand uncle who founded the first political party in Nigeria in 1922, Herbert Macaulay, to please reinstate Fubara. Tinubu should listen to, and honour this appeal in memory of all those who died in the journey to our democracy,? George pleaded last week. (Sunday Vanguard)

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