There are cracks in the South-west, home base of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, months to the formal commencement of activities leading to the 2027 general elections.

The South-west being the president?s natal base where he cut his political teeth to become one of the most influential political leaders in the country, is regarded as his turf and linchpin for 2027.

Recent happenings in the zone have, however, shown that the cohesion in the president?s base is being threatened by many issues in no less than three states in the zone, especially his home state, Lagos.

Our correspondents observe that there are schisms in the president?s camp in Oyo, Osun and Lagos with the most serious threat coming from Lagos where the president appears not to be in good terms with the state governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu.

Recently, the pan-Yoruba socio-political organization, Afenifere, also issued a scathing criticism on the president?s tenure, saying Tinubu?s renewed hope has turned into a nightmare for Nigerians.

The group, in a statement by its leader and national publicity secretary, Oba Oladipo Olaitan and Justice Faloye, said the midterm report of the Tinubu administration has shown that every human development and sociopolitical index in the country has regressed.

Facts have also emerged that in Osun State, the initial plan to allow the former governor, Adegboyega Oyetola, to fly the APC flag in 2026 as he did in 2019 and 2023, may have been altered which has not gone down well with those in the Oyetola camp.

Though, Oyetola is now serving as minister for Marine and Blue Economy, sources say he prefers to return and complete his second term in office.

In Oyo State, there?s a serious division between the camps of Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu and Senator Teslim Folarin over who the president should support for the party?s ticket in 2027.

The reluctance of the president to intervene in the two states currently under the PDP rule is further affecting the cohesion in the president?s camp.

In Lagos, Tinubu?s snub of Governor Sanwo-Olu during the commissioning of the completed portion of section one of the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Road covering 30 kilometres, came as the confirmation of a long held suspicion that the governor may have fallen out of favour with the president.

However, the governor dismissed the existence of any rift between him and the president, saying the relationship is that of father and son.

Addressing journalists after a meeting with President Tinubu and members of the Governor?s Advisory Council (GAC) in Lagos on Sunday, Sanwo-Olu said those alluding to any crisis are trying to be ?more Catholic than the Pope.?

The governor said, ?Did you see any discord? Can?t you see, you are smiling, I?m smiling? There?s none (discord). They are people that believe that they are more Catholic than the Pope.

?There are people that you see, they cry more than the bereaved. You know father and son relationship, we will always, always ensure that. There?s nothing at all. He is my father, my leader and we?re grateful that he has given us the audience today to come in and say hello to him.?

Sanwo-Olu also disclosed that the president was happy to see him and members of the GAC.

?Nothing beyond the fact that he was very happy to see us; extremely, very happy to see us. He was very excited that we are one big happy family, and we are not divided in any form, and we all honestly also pledged our full loyalty to him, to his government, as our leader, as our father, and it was unanimous, and he has charged us to ensure that the forthcoming local government election, that we should all go and do our very best and ensure that we continue to keep the flag of the party flying,? he said.

A source also said that the president declared at the meeting that he was no longer angry with the governor. The source said the president did not go into details about the cause of the rift, but accepted the plea for reconciliation. ?It is all over now. All is forgiving,? the source quoted Tinubu as saying.

A 28-second video that emerged last week and viewed by our correspondent, showed Tinubu who arrived for the commissioning of the coastal road having a handshake with other governors who were already seated at the venue, but when it was the turn of Sanwo-Olu, he side stepped him.

Also, the governor of Ogun State, Prince Dapo Abiodun was chosen to speak at the event well above the host governor, Sanwo-Olu, who is also the chairman of the South-west Governors? Forum.

What initially started as speculation has now become an open secret, threatening the cohesion, peace, stability and tranquility in the party and is already causing rifts among party leaders in the state, Daily Trust gathered.

Two things are said to be the major issues that strained the relationship between the president and the governor, leading to the current ripples within the political camp of Tinubu.

2023 election and Peter Obi/Atiku connection

An APC leader told Daily Trust over the weekend that the recent revelation that the governor allegedly contributed to the campaign funds of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Presidential candidate in 2023 by proxy was what raised the red flag for the president.

This has been interpreted to mean that the governor wasn?t committed to Tinubu?s presidency in 2023, alleging that, that was why the president lost Lagos under his watch as governor.

Obasa?s impeachment

The impeachment of Speaker Mudashiru Obasa as the House of Assembly presiding officer was one of the issues that pitted the president against Governor Sanwo-Olu.

On January 13, there was a drama in the House of Assembly when Mudashiru Obasa was impeached as Speaker of the legislative house. The impeachment of the Speaker, who was far away in the United State, was seen as a rude shock given the enormous power and clout enjoyed by Obasa. Until that moment, Obasa appeared untouchable due to his position as a long-term ally and political godson to the president.

However, the impeachment of the Speaker was said to have irked Tinubu, who directed that he should be reinstated. It was a tough battle for the 49 days that the impeachment saga lasted. At exactly 49 days after Obasa?s impeachment, the status quo was restored as Mojisola Meranda, who was elected after Obasa?s purported impeachment returned to her former position as the Deputy Speaker of the House of Assembly.

Despite the impeachment getting the imprimatur of the majority of members of the 40-man house of assembly, Obasa was reinstated as the Speaker though feelers say the relationship in the legislative house is no longer as it used to be.

Since that crisis, sources said, the president has not been happy with the governor for his alleged role in the saga.

?The president was very furious that the governor disrespected him by supporting the impeachment of Obasa without informing him. The return to status quo was to tell you that the president would not tolerate such an act of rebellion against his political empire and since then the relationship between the duo has not been cordial,? said an APC leader who pleaded anonymity.

While the relationship has been sour since the Obasa?s impeachment saga, they have continued to manage it until the president?s public snub of the governor at the commissioning of the coastal road.

Prior to that, the governor was said to have been less visible in several engagements involving the president while it was learnt that his colleagues in the progressive governors? forum were making frantic efforts to reconcile them.

The governor was also not at the commissioning of projects in Lagos on Thursday including his visit to the Dangote Petrochemical Refinery. The president also commissioned some roads linking the Lekki Deep Seaport and other projects by the Ministry of Works. Instead, the Deputy Governor, Obafemi Hamza was most visible at the commissioning. The absence of the Sanwo-Olu further fueled speculations, especially after he was sighted in Uyo, Akwa Ibom State, barely 24 hours later, during the defection of the governor, Umo Eno, from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC)

Local government primary

Daily Trust further learnt that the crisis between the president and the governor also played a role in the emergence of APC candidates ahead of the local government elections in the state scheduled for July 12.

It was gathered that some candidates backed by the governor lost out in the primary which explained why there was so much protest and outcry on the outcome of the shadow election.

This, it was learnt, was part of a move to clip the wing of the governor and ?put him in his place.? ?None of the candidates supported by Sanwo-Olu won the election,? a source said.

Despite several efforts by our correspondents, no APC leader or member of the Tinubu?s camp in Lagos was willing to speak on the matter. Officially, they have all kept sealed lips, while some are praying to God for the matter to be resolved.

Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu has been largely described as a down-to-earth, peace-loving and unassuming personality who never minced words in praising the president. He often described the president as ?Mr. Visioner,? emphasising that he owed his ascension to prominence from obscurity to the president?s fondness for him and always reiterated that the vision of Tinubu when he served as the governor between 1999 and 2007 is what he was building on.

Analysts weigh in

Political analysts are already speaking on the issue with some saying if the matter is allowed to degenerate, it could affect the 2027 second term ambition of the president.

They said there was the need for the president to call the governor and reconcile with him to douse the raging tension.

Professor Gbade Ojo, a political analyst and commentator, pointed out that the rift between Tinubu and Sanwo-Olu stemmed from the fallout of Obasa?s impeachment saga.

He said, ?The primary cause of the strained relationship is the politics of the removal of Obasa, the speaker of the Lagos house of assembly. I think Mr. President was not sufficiently carried along, then Sanwo-Olu must have gone beyond his boundary.

?Number two, Tinubu has become an institution in Lagos politics and aside from the whole country, Tinubu believes that as a godfather who installed Sanwo-Olu, he must take permission for every step.?

The political analyst describes the unfolding scenario as one of ?the excesses of godfathers in Nigeria?s politics.?

?This is similar to what is happening with Wike (former Rivers Governor Nyesome Wike) and Fubara (the suspended Governor Sim Fubara). If you are installed as a governor, you don?t have your own IQ to rely upon, you take permission before you do anything.

?So, for taking such a decision without the permission of the godfather, Sanwo-Olu is not in the good book of Mr. President, and Sanwo-Olu is lucky that he is on his second term. So if care is not taken, he may be suddenly impeached, if not impeached, they will allow him to drag away and go into political oblivion like his predecessor, Ambode.

?But Mr. President needs to watch that Lagos has become a danger zone politically in terms of electoral value. Tinubu lost the presidential election in Lagos State. If the infighting is allowed within APC, Obasa, Sanwo Olu, and going by the number of people that are interested, Sanwo Olu may likely begin the politics of ?Sidon look? which is very dangerous in politics,? he said.

He urged the president to tread softly and ?be more politically tolerant and accommodating.?

An Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Lagos, Kayode Esuola, said friendship and enmity in politics are not permanent.

?My personal interpretation is that Tinubu is organising and rearranging some political dissidents in Lagos which would have led to expected interpretation of what happened that day. What happened that day, given that video, could have been an oversight, it couldn?t have been deliberate but people matched circumstances with events that are unintentional.

?So if you are following political events in Lagos, especially that which has got to do with the speaker of the house, you know that Tinubu and Sanwo-Olu?s positions were not in alignment. The position not being in alignment has to do with the political calculation of who becomes Lagos State Governor in 2027. So there are fillers and indications that the calculation could change, that Sanwo-Olu might end up being an Ambode after all based on what Tinubu considers the need to do some reengineering for the sake of Lagos.

All these feelers will have given that indication to what you saw in the video, that being said, you may never know the fact between the political actors because they don?t share it with you.

?So, 2027 will be in favor of Sanwo-Olu because of certain political permutations as the current governor?, he added.

Meanwhile, efforts to get the official reaction of the Presidency on the development was not successful.

Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, and Daniel Bwala, Special Adviser to the President on Policy Communications, could not be reached for their comments on the matter.

Messages sent to their numbers, including WhatsApp messages, were yet to be replied to at the time of filing this report.

Reactions

An APC chieftain who spoke under condition of anonymity said, ?We cannot claim that nothing is happening. It is true that a lot is happening and the duo is not in good terms. For instance, during the endorsement of Mr. President for second term at the APC Summit in Abuja, the governor was nowhere to be found. Imagine the governor of Lagos State was nowhere to be found while other APC governors were endorsing Mr. President.

?So this is a pointer to the festering crisis. I was at that summit, this is not a rumour. Again, on the morning of the summit, the governor left Abuja for London. So how do you explain all of that? The president has not been happy. Then the Obasa issue is still there, the fence has not been fully mended,? he added.

Another source confirmed to our correspondent that some prominent traditional rulers in the country have been contacted to appeal to the president to forgive the governor and embrace him again.

An APC leader who said they remain fervent in praying for an end to the crisis expressed optimism that the president would listen to the plea of the elders and forgive the governor.

He said, ?The truth of the matter is that we are all very hopeful and that is why people are not talking about it. The only public comment on the crisis is the article from Fouad Oki (an APC chieftain) who responded to the column written by Ms. Funke Egbemode and when you read the article, it is more like an appeal to the president and the governor.

?This is a very dicey situation and I think the best bet for us is to keep on looking while the elders are allowed to continue talking to the president. I believe that in the fullness of time, this would pass over. The president that I know has a forgiving spirit and there are many examples to prove this going by the number of people he has embraced in recent times. Did he not embrace Senator Musiliu Obanikoro? Did he not embrace Jandor (Abdulazeez Olajide former PDP Governorship candidate) despite calling him names?

?So we are very confident that reconciliation would happen one way or the other, and this matter would pass,? he added.

Fouad Oki, a former Commissioner in the state in his widely circulated article appealed to the president and the governor to embrace reconciliation.

He wrote: ?I now humbly invite you to join me in lifting this matter to Olodumare (The Gods) and the ancestors. Let us pray, as you so poignantly warned, that those concerned ?harken to our cries lest the issue become Ao mu Erin j?oba eweku ewele tales.?

Let us intercede for: Wisdom for President Tinubu and Governor Sanwo-Olu to prioritize reconciliation over pride. Discernment for the APC to navigate its ?voluptuous bosoms? of opportunism without suffocation. Unity that transcends the ?cold war? and secures Lagos and Nigeria from becoming a theater of political egungun (specters)?Together, may our prayers and advocacy ensure it also ignites healing.?

Responding to Egbemode?s article, he said, ?Your words resonate not merely as commentary but as a clarion call for introspection, reconciliation, and wisdom in these politically charged times. Your mastery of allegory, Yoruba proverbs, and historical parallels illuminates the gravity of the current rift between our revered President Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu, while also sounding the alarm on the APC?s precarious dance with political entropy.?

Sources close to the governor confirmed that Mr. Sanwo-Olu has reached out to prominent Nigerians to beg the President. Among those he reached were prominent monarchs in the South-West but as of the time of filing this report, the President has not given them his words.

?We have asked the governor to be prayerful. It is a very dicey moment in his political career but talks are still ongoing and by the special grace of God Almighty, the president would listen and let the matter slide,? the source said pleading not to be named. (Daily Trust)

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