The once-cordial relationship between President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his long-time political prot?g?, Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos State, appears to be fraying, and with no signs of reconciliation in sight, party stakeholders are becoming increasingly concerned. SEYE OLUMIDE reports.

Though neither President Bola Tinubu nor Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu has publicly acknowledged any rift between them, sources within the All Progressives Congress (APC) at the national, zonal, and state levels confirm that a subtle but widening gulf now separates the President and the Lagos governor.

Efforts to intervene have been minimal, with some party leaders choosing to ignore the signs in the hope that time might mend the fracture. Others, however, believe the tension reflects a familiar pattern in Tinubu?s political trajectory: trusted allies who rise through his influence but later act in ways he perceives as betrayal.

The just-concluded visit of President Tinubu to Lagos further exposed the depth of the tension. From his arrival at the presidential wing of the Murtala Muhammed Airport, observers noted an unusual frostiness. Eyewitnesses said President Tinubu pointedly refused to acknowledge or exchange a handshake with Governor Sanwo-Olu, walking past him and instead greeting Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat, a gesture that many insiders say was calculated and deliberate.

To manage the optics, the President?s media team reportedly issued strict instructions that the footage of the airport arrival, particularly the greeting scene, should not be broadcasted. Aides were allegedly directed to edit or suppress any clips that might confirm speculation about the strained ties.

According to a high-level source privy to internal conversations, Governor Sanwo-Olu was also sidelined from escorting the President to his Bourdillon residence in Ikoyi, a role traditionally reserved for the sitting governor of Lagos.

Instead, Hamzat accompanied Tinubu, further underscoring the altered dynamics between the two men.

The absence of Governor Sanwo-Olu and top members of his administration from key events during the President?s visit, including the high-profile 50th anniversary celebration of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) held at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), also raised eyebrows.

Held in Victoria Island, Lagos, the city where ECOWAS was founded in 1975, the event was expected to draw the presence of the host governor. Traditionally, such a milestone would see the governor deliver a goodwill message or keynote speech. But Sanwo-Olu was nowhere to be seen. When pressed, a member of his media team told The Guardian: ?The governor had an important engagement elsewhere.? That explanation, however, struck many observers as insufficient, given the significance of both the President?s presence and the event?s symbolism for Lagos.

The governor and his aides were also noticeably absent throughout Friday during President Tinubu?s engagements across the state. Sources within the Villa and Lagos APC confirmed that Sanwo-Olu?s name was initially omitted from the official protocol manifest for receiving the President. ?It took intense last-minute lobbying and persuasion to get the governor included,? one insider told The Guardian. ?Otherwise, only the deputy governor was supposed to be at the airport.?

Further fuelling the speculation was the conspicuous absence of Lagos APC stalwarts, particularly members of the influential Governor?s Advisory Council (GAC), from the Bourdillon residence. While political associates still came to pay homage to the President, the usual fanfare, solidarity visits, and photo opportunities were markedly subdued.

Though no official reason has been given for the simmering discord, political analysts speculate that tensions may stem from policy disagreements, alleged lapses in loyalty, or unspoken differences over Lagos 2027 succession plans. Some also point to whispers that certain appointments and decisions taken by Sanwo-Olu since his re-election have not sat well with the President.

Regardless of the cause, the visible chill in relations between Tinubu and Sanwo-Olu could have broader implications for Lagos APC unity and 2027 political permutations, especially as President Tinubu prepares to consolidate control ahead of a likely re-election campaign.

A former commissioner in Lagos who spoke anonymously said, ?This is not just about ego or protocol breaches. The President feels let down in certain ways, and when that happens, he doesn?t forget easily.?

As the political father-son dynamic continues to unravel, senior party stakeholders are increasingly worried. If the rift deepens further, it may fracture the Lagos APC machinery, long regarded as the crown jewel of Tinubu?s political empire.

But beyond Sanwo-Olu?s visible absence during President Tinubu?s recent visit to Lagos, political watchers are more intrigued by his conspicuous non-attendance at the APC National Policy and Performance Review Summit in Abuja, where the president was formally endorsed for a second term.

Feelers have it that Sanwo-Olu may have been barred from the Presidential Villa in the aftermath of a politically sensitive attempt to unseat the Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly, Mudashiru Obasa. This dramatic episode nearly upended the internal cohesion of the Lagos APC, and it is believed to have severely strained relations between the governor and his long-time political benefactor, President Tinubu.

According to findings, at least 32 out of the 40 members of the Lagos Assembly signed a resolution to remove Obasa after a meeting with Governor Sanwo-Olu at the Lagos State Government House in Marina.

Allegations emerged that the governor actively encouraged and financially motivated the lawmakers to oust Obasa, replacing him with his then-deputy, Mojisola Meranda. The rebellion, however, was swiftly halted following a direct intervention from President Tinubu, who reportedly summoned key stakeholders and ordered the immediate reinstatement of Obasa, citing the need to preserve party unity and political stability in Lagos.

For the president and his allies, Sanwo-Olu?s manoeuvre was seen not just as a miscalculation but as a betrayal, an attempt to alter the delicate political architecture Tinubu has painstakingly built in Lagos since 1999. In political parlance, such an action is considered an unpardonable offence, tantamount to rebellion within the camp. Since then, relations between Tinubu and Sanwo-Olu have remained frosty, with the latter increasingly sidelined in core national party activities.

Further evidence of this strained relationship came during the build-up to the APC local government primaries ahead of the July 12, 2025, council elections in Lagos. In sharp contrast to previous cycles where Sanwo-Olu played a dominant role in candidate selection, often acting as the chief political liaison on Tinubu?s behalf, his influence this time was conspicuously diminished.

In a sharp departure from tradition, none of the 57 candidates who emerged for chairmanship positions across Lagos? local governments and Local Council Development Areas (LCDAs) was directly associated with the governor?s camp.

Similarly, the once-powerful Governance Advisory Council (GAC), the highest decision-making body in Lagos APC, was stripped of its usual clout. It was said that a directive reportedly came from the presidency instructing that no special preferences be granted to any governor or GAC member in nominating candidates, including their children or close associates.

This decision, many believe, was designed to break entrenched political patronage networks in Lagos and reassert Tinubu?s control over the party?s grassroots base. Some observers see it as part of a broader political reconfiguration within the APC, aimed at consolidating power at the centre ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Analysts also point to a recent wave of political recalibration in the state. For example, a number of local government aspirants previously believed to be loyal to the governor were edged out during the screening phase, while others reportedly withdrew under pressure from emerging power blocs loyal directly to Abuja.

These developments have fueled speculation that Sanwo-Olu may be serving out his final term without the full support of the political machinery that ensured his emergence in 2019 and re-election in 2023.

Although the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has formally dismissed media reports linking its investigation of Ms. Aisha Achimugu to any political undercurrents involving Sanwo-Olu and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, the development has nonetheless cast a long shadow over Sanwo-Olu?s already strained relationship with President Tinubu.

Investigations by The Guardian reveal that the Achimugu controversy was exploited by political rivals within the Lagos APC to further isolate the governor from his political benefactor. While some party loyalists dismissed the narrative as a smear campaign, others, especially Sanwo-Olu?s internal adversaries, believed the governor had questions to answer and demanded a full investigation.

Achimugu, a prominent oil marketer and socialite, was briefly on the run before turning herself in to the EFCC over alleged financial improprieties. Her purported financial links to opposition figures added fuel to the speculation. Insiders say the situation intensified tensions not just between Tinubu and Sanwo-Olu but also within the powerful GAC, the apex decision-making body in Lagos APC.

The frosty relations have prompted comparisons to Tinubu?s historical handling of past governors he helped install. Since leaving office as Lagos State governor in 2007, Tinubu?s influence has remained dominant in the state?s political machinery. Yet, those he handpicked often found themselves estranged once they began to assert independence.

Former Governor Babatunde Fashola, who succeeded Tinubu in 2007, faced significant resistance in seeking a second term. It took the intervention of party elders before he secured renomination in 2011. Even then, he was forced to drop his then-deputy, Sarah Sosan, in favour of Adejoke Orelope-Adefulire, reportedly as a concession to Tinubu?s camp. By 2015, when Fashola completed his tenure, relations with Tinubu had grown cold.

Fashola?s successor, Akinwunmi Ambode, a technocrat and former accountant general of Lagos, was imposed against Fashola?s wishes.

Ambode himself fell out of favour with Tinubu and the party after just one term. In 2019, he was unceremoniously denied a second term ticket, despite being the incumbent. That paved the way for Sanwo-Olu, then perceived as a more loyal and less confrontational choice. However, with recent developments, Sanwo-Olu now appears to be facing a similar or even grimmer political fate.

Unlike his predecessors, Sanwo-Olu?s political isolation is unfolding more openly. From his reduced influence in the July 2025 APC local government primaries to reports of disinvitation from core national engagements, signs point to a governor who may be nearing the end of the road within the ruling structure.

Observers argue that this cyclical rift between Tinubu and his prot?g?s has exacted a toll on governance in Lagos. Each breakdown in a relationship disrupts continuity, halts long-term planning, and deprioritises key public projects. For instance, Ambode reportedly shelved many of Fashola?s urban renewal and drainage projects. In turn, Sanwo-Olu has been accused of abandoning major transportation infrastructure initiated by Ambode, including the ongoing bus terminal and interchange upgrades aimed at decongesting Lagos traffic.

This politics of personal loyalty, critics say, has come at the expense of the people.

Projects are initiated and stalled, not for lack of funding or planning, but because new administrations, desperate to assert independence or prove loyalty to new patrons, refuse to complete the work of their predecessors.

As political realignments within the Lagos APC continue, residents are watching. Whether Sanwo-Olu survives politically or suffers a harsher exit than Fashola and Ambode, the underlying question remains: will the politics of loyalty continue to trump governance in Lagos?

The consequences, many believe, are already visible, and they stretch beyond Marina into the daily lives of millions navigating an increasingly complex, underperforming metropolis. (Guardian)

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