As President Bola Ahmed Tinubu approaches his second year in office on May 29, his administration has been quick to tout a wide range of reforms and policy strides across sectors, from economic recovery plans and foreign direct investment pledges to fiscal discipline and subsidy removal. But for many Nigerians, the fanfare feels distant from the daily struggle for survival.

While the government celebrates what it calls bold, necessary decisions to reset Nigeria?s economic direction, citizens say the reality on ground is a country where food prices are skyrocketing, transportation costs are suffocating, and survival itself feels like a full-time job.

Mixed signals from statistics

The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) offers a seemingly bright spot: headline inflation dropped to 23.71% in April 2025 from 24.23% in March, a sharp fall from 33.69% in April 2024. Government officials have highlighted this as proof that tough decisions are beginning to yield results.

But inflation data alone hardly captures the experience of those navigating Nigeria?s markets and filling their gas tanks.

While there?s truly a slight drop in prices of some commodities, staple food items like rice, bread, tomatoes, pepper remain far out of reach for many. Transportation and electricity bills continue to swallow wages, and job security remains elusive.

Esther Adewole, a mother of three and a hairdresser in Lagos, scoffs at the talk of improvement. ?They say things are coming down, but nothing has changed in my pocket. I still buy a small loaf of bread for over N1,500. I spend more than half of what I earn on food alone.?

Across the country, similar sentiments abound. While the government insists it is laying the groundwork for long-term prosperity, many citizens say they are yet to see or feel any meaningful progress.

The cost of reforms

When Tinubu assumed office, he wasted no time in announcing the end of fuel subsidies, a move long considered necessary by economists. The Central Bank of Nigeria was also overhauled, leading to a unified exchange rate and attempts to control excess liquidity. These reforms were applauded internationally but have triggered massive local disruptions.

Fuel prices tripled, and with it came inflationary pressure on virtually every good and service. The naira has continued to fluctuate, and although it has shown signs of recovery in recent weeks, prices have not followed suit.

While Nigerians were still battling with the effects of fuel subsidy removal and unification of exchange rate, in April 2024, the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) approved a steep tariff hike for Band A electricity consumers, from N68/kWh to N225/kWh, triggering outrage across the country. Although later revised to N206.8 and again to N209.5/kWh, the over 200% spike sent shockwaves through businesses, households, academic institutions, and even the corridors of power.

The impact on the manufacturing sector has been especially severe. According to the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), companies spent N1.11 trillion on alternative energy in 2024, a 42% rise from the previous year.

?On a half-on-half basis, electricity supply rose from 11.4 hours per day in H1 2024 to 15.2 hours in H2 2024. However, electricity tariffs surged by over 200 per cent for Band A consumers, significantly increasing manufacturing costs,? Segun Ajayi-Kadir, the director-general of the MAN, said in the report titled ?MAN Economic Review for the Second Half of 2024?.

?While power availability improved, many manufacturers faced frequent outages and costs, as the country witnessed 12 national grid collapses. This remained a major concern.?

The ripple effect has been visible in factory closures, job losses, and increased product costs, worsening inflation and weakening Nigeria?s industrial base.

Government?s counter-narrative

In multiple public appearances, government officials have maintained that Nigeria is on the right track.

The president himself has described his administration as one that inherited ?a dead economy? but is ?reviving it through sacrifice and tough decisions.?

$8 billion (about N12.8 trillion) of investments in deepwater projects and gas Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) have been attracte? by the FG in one year, Olu Verheijen, special adviser to the president on energy, disclosed this on Wednesday at the 2025 Africa CEO Forum held in Abidjan, C?te d?Ivoire, attributing it to decisive decision made by her boss.

?Nigeria?s attainment of an increase in indigenous equity in gas, from 69 per cent to 83 per cent, is not just a statistic but a seismic shift in ownership and control of Africa?s energy future,? she added.

But even those who acknowledge the need for painful reforms question how long the suffering will last. Youth unemployment remains high, small businesses are closing, and the cost of doing business is escalating. For many, patience is running thin.

?The unification of the FX market has reduced volatility and improved transparency,? Abdulfatai Adedeji, a research fellow at the Centre for the Study of Economies of Africa (CSEA), explained. ?And the removal of fuel subsidies has eased fiscal pressure, increasing FAAC allocations to states and boosting market competition in the downstream sector.?

But he?s quick to caution that these benefits are fragile. ?The adjustment costs have been steep, more Nigerians are falling into poverty, and the middle class is vanishing,? he said.

?Reforms in Nigeria often lack adequate safeguards and transparency, which prevents benefits from reaching those most in need.?

Hope or hardship ahead?

?We keep hearing about reforms and results, but our lives are not getting better,? says Ibrahim Lawal, a Lagos-based teacher. ?They tell us to endure, but for how long? My rent is due, and I don?t know where to turn.?

As the second anniversary nears, the Tinubu administration faces a pivotal moment: how to convert policy intent into visible relief. For now, the disconnect between official optimism and public despair remains stark.

Unless the government invests heavily in social safety nets, job creation, and stabilising the essentials of daily life, the administration?s testimony may continue to sound like mere propaganda to struggling Nigerians. (BusinessDay)

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