PICTURE a Nigeria where one political party holds all the power; no opposition, no choice, just one voice.

It?s a thought that?s keeping many Nigerians awake at night because there will be no alternative to those in power as they do whatever they like and impunity reigns.

A wave of politicians switching from opposition parties to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has sparked panic.

From busy markets to bustling offices, people are asking: Is Nigeria?s democracy in danger? Could we end up with a one-party state where the APC calls every shot?

This flood of defections is shaking the nation, and the fear of losing the country?s lively multi-party system is spreading fast.

Meanwhile, following the defection of all three PDP senators from Kebbi State and the Minority Leader of Jigawa House of Assembly to the APC, last week, the total number of lawmakers who decamped since 2023 has risen to 86.

The defected lawmakers, federal and state, are mostly PDP members.

The breakdown is as follows: Senators 7, Reps 19, Delta 22, Rivers 26, Edo 7, Abia 4 and Jigawa 1.

Senators, who have dumped their parties for the APC, are Adamu Aliero (PDP, Kebbi Central), Yahaya Abdullahi (PDP, Kebbi North, Garba Maidoki (PDP, Kebbi South), Francis Ezenwa (Labour Party, Imo East), Ned Nwoko (PDP, Delta North) and Summaila Kawu (NNPP, Kano South).

The first senator to defect to the APC was the late Senator Ifeanyi Ubah of then-Young Progressive Party, YPP, representing Anambra South, on October 12, 2023.

For the House of Representatives, PDP members who defected to the APC include Erhiatake Ibori-Suenu (Delta), Husseini Jallo (Kaduna), Adamu Tanko (Niger), Christian Nkwonta (Abia), Salisu Koko (Kebbi), Amos Magaji (Kaduna), Wole Oke (Osun) and Abubakar Gumi (Kano).

Others are Salisu Yusuf Majigiri (Katsina), Aliyu Iliyasu Ruma (Katsina) and Abdullahi Balarabe Dabai (Katsina).

Also on the list of Reps defectors are Victor Nwokolo, Julius Pondi, Thomas Ereyitomi, Nicholas Mutu, Okodiko Jonathan and Nnamdi Ezechi, all from Delta State.

Their counterparts who dumped Labour Party for the APC are Tochukwu Okere (Imo), Donatus Mathew (Kaduna), Bassey Akiba (Cross River), Iyawe Esosa (Edo), Daulyop Fom (Plateau), and Fom Daniel Chollom (Plateau).

For state lawmakers, 26 members of Rivers State House of Assembly are battling in court to retain their seats after decamping from the PDP to APC.

In Abia, four of the 12 PDP members of the House of Assembly who were inaugurated in June 2023 defected to the ruling Labour Party in the state and no one is sure that the rest would remain in the party.

Similarly, seven of the 14 PDP lawmakers in Edo House of Assembly moved to the ruling APC in the state under the guise that there was crisis in their party and that their action would allow them to collaborate with Governor Okpebholo to develop Edo.

The Oppositeion Falls Apart

The defections are like a storm ripping through Nigeria?s opposition, especially the People?s Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP), and New Nigeria People?s Party (NNPP).

Big-name politicians are jumping to the APC, leaving the opposition weak and divided.

Many suspect the APC is pulling the strings, offering deals to lure defectors and tighten its grip ahead of the 2027 elections.

The PDP and LP are caught in leadership fights, and the NNPP is struggling to find its footing, making it harder for them to challenge the APC?s growing influence.

Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), seems to embrace this trend, even suggesting a one-party future isn?t a bad idea.

?Leaders worried about a one-party state have no need to fear?, Ganduje said.

?A one-party state is not by force; it is by negotiation. It is by other political parties seeing the effect of the positive governance of our party.

?If they decide to come to our party willingly, I think there is nothing wrong with that. Today, China is one of the strongest countries in the world and is a one-party system.

?We are not saying we are working for a one-party system, but if this is the wish of Nigerians, we cannot quarrel with that?.

But not everyone in the APC agrees.

Hon. Faruk Aliyu, a chieftain of the APC and a former member of the House of Representatives, strongly disagrees with Ganduje.

?No. Absolutely. One party is? certainly not the best for us and we in the APC are not looking towards one party? what Ganduj just said was his opinion absolutely, it?s not the opinion of the party even though he?s our leader but that?s not the opinion of APC that we want one-party state,? Aliyu stated in an interview.

Echoes of the Past, Signs of a One-Party State

Nigeria has seen this before.

In the early 2000s, the PDP dominated politics, winning most elections and absorbing defectors, much like the APC today.

It felt like a one-party state was forming.

But Nigerians fought back; opposition parties formed coalitions, and voters used their power to elect new leaders, like in 2015 when the APC ousted the PDP.

This history raises a big question: Are we sliding back into that danger zone?

A one-party state is when one party controls everything ? government, laws, even elections ? and other parties are either banned or too weak to compete.

Features include a lack of opposition, suppressed dissent, and centralized power.

Are these present in Nigeria now?

The opposition is crumbling, defections are shrinking competition, and leaders like Ganduje talk openly about one-party systems.

While other parties still exist, the APC?s dominance is growing, sounding alarm bells for many.

Jideofor Patrick Adibe, a Professor of Political Science and International Relations at the Department of Political Science, Faculty of Social Science, Nasarawa State University, Keffi, explains the difference between a one-party state and a dominant party system.

?There is a distinction between what we call one-party dominant states and one-party states?, he says in a chat with Sunday Vanguard.

?In one-party states, the law allows only the existence of one political party. We call such one-party states.

?It?s not really as people say that we?re going towards one-party states unless there is a law that outlaws the existence of other parties.

?But you can have one-party dominant state where only one party is electorally viable to win at the national level and that often happens in many countries where you can have multi-party systems.

?For example, the National Party of South Africa ruled the country between 1948 and 1994 and nobody, at least for the whites, it was democratic because there were periodic elections.

?If you move down further, if you go to Sweden, the Social Democratic Workers Party of Sweden has dominated Swedish politics since 1917.

?It has either won the majority in parliament or has the plurality.

?If you go to Japan, the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, which was formed in 1955, has continued to dominate Japanese politics.

?In fact, it had only been out of power twice.

?In other words, the fact that you have a one-party dominant state does not necessarily mean that democracy is under threat.

?Conversely, the fact that you have more than one or two political parties that are viable does not necessarily mean that your system is democratic?.

A Fight to Save Democracy

As the APC grows stronger, some Nigerians are trying to push back.

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and others, mostly from the North, are working to build a coalition to challenge the APC in 2027. But their efforts are hitting roadblocks; the opposition is too divided, and their focus is limited to certain regions.

Mazi Paul Ibe, Media Adviser to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, says Atiku has spent his life fighting against one-party rule.

?His Excellency Atiku Abubakar was born for this, so to speak. He has dedicated his life to this very struggle?, Ibe explains in a chat with Sunday Vanguard.

?From the moment he stepped into politics, he has stood firmly against the idea of a one-party state.

?That commitment has been tested repeatedly, often at great personal risk.

?One cannot forget the dark days of the 1990s, under the military regime of General Sani Abacha, when Atiku narrowly escaped an assassination attempt.

?Armed men stormed his residence in Kaduna, leaving several people dead. The exact number may be unclear, but the horror of that day remains vivid.

?Forced into exile, Atiku could have walked away from the fight. Instead, he chose to return, unwavering in his resolve to challenge dictatorship ? military or civilian.

?Today, that same spirit continues to drive him. ?He is working alongside other patriotic Nigerians; men and women of goodwill who genuinely care about the future of this country and are committed to safeguarding our democracy.

?Together, they strive to ensure that our nation remains a place where diverse opinions and ideas are not only welcomed but essential for progress?.

Other critics are sounding the alarm.

Former President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan warns that a one-party system could destabilize Nigeria if it happens through sneaky tactics.

?Yes, a one-party state may not be evil after all, because Julius Nyerere of Tanzania used a one-party state to stabilise his country in the early days of independence?, Jonathan argues.

?He felt that the country, just like Nigeria, had too many tribes and tongues, and two principal religions ? Christianity and Islam.

?If we allow multiple parties, some may follow religious lines, others tribal, and unity will be difficult.

?But it was properly planned; it was not by accident. If we must, as a nation, adopt a one-party system, then it must be designed, planned by experts, and we must know what we are getting into.

?But if we arrive at it through the back door by political manipulations, then we are heading for a crisis?.

Professor Hassan Saliu, President of the Nigerian Political Science Association (NPSA), points to a deeper issue with Nigeria?s parties.

?Political parties in Nigeria have become vehicles for accessing state power and resources rather than platforms for ideological contestation, which encourages dictatorial tendencies and weakens democratic competition,? Saliu stresses.

Biodun Ajiboye, Executive Secretary and CEO of the National Institute for Cultural Orientation (NICO), blames the opposition for not stepping up.

?First and foremost, I do not believe Nigeria is moving toward a one-party state. These expressions of fear and panic come from those who cannot keep pace with the APC?, Ajiboye points out.

?If Nigeria ever drifts into a one-party state, the blame will lie with the opposition for failing to present a credible alternative particularly the Labour Party, which remains in its embryonic stage yet is on a path of self-destruction before it can even establish itself as a viable entity?.

Pros and cons

Globally, one-party states vary.

China?s Communist Party has driven economic growth but restricts freedoms.

It emerged after a revolution and maintains control through strict laws.

Tanzania, as Jonathan notes, used a one-party system post-independence to unify its diverse tribes, but it later embraced multi-party democracy.

Eritrea, ruled by one party since 1993, faces criticism for human rights abuses.

Pros of one-party states include stability and quick decision-making, but cons include suppressed dissent and lack of choice.

Multi-party systems, like Nigeria?s, allow diverse voices and competition but can lead to division and gridlock.

Nigeria?s current path leans toward APC dominance, but no law bans other parties yet.

Will Nigeria Slide or Recover?

Nigeria?s future hangs in the balance.

Is it likely to slide into a one-party state, or can it recover? The risk is real ? defections, a weak opposition, and bold talk from APC leaders like Ganduje point to a dangerous drift. But recovery is possible. Nigeria?s history shows voters can change the game, as they did in 2015.

If the opposition unites, new coalitions form, and voters stay active, Nigeria could avoid a one-party fate.

The 2027 elections will be crucial.

Hon. Faruk Aliyu believes the people hold the power to stop this slide.

?Honestly having everybody joining, you know APC is no good for democracy? So if the Nigerian public don?t accept this gale of movement they have the right to decide when the election comes,? Aliyu says.

He suggests voters can even recall defectors.

?I mean we are operating democracy. So no matter what you look at it, the people need to rise up and probably recall these people because that?s the only constitutional legal way to go about it,? Aliyu points out.

The ex-federal lawmaker is confident Nigerians will have the final say.

His words: ?So if the Nigerian public doesn?t accept this gale of movement, they have the right to decide when the election comes? so let this not scare anybody because the people will decide who governs them?.

In the same breath, Governor Abdullahi Sule of Nasarawa State insists the APC doesn?t want a one-party state, just to be the biggest player.

?I don?t believe by the slightest of imagination that we are going to be a one-party state?, Sule argues.

?No matter how successful we are? even America, for instance, that has the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, you still have the Green Party and so many other political parties that you don?t hear about.

?We don?t even want Nigeria to be a one party state. We just want to be the dominant party? we just want to be the party with the? if we can win 90% of the votes, okay, that?s it, the other parties can win 10% of the votes.

?Every party wants to be the dominant party. Every party wants to win elections. Every party wants to be able to give back to society and to give back to the people and I think that?s what our party is doing?.

Cracked democracy

The defections have exposed cracks in Nigeria?s democracy, but it?s not over.

Nigerians have fought back before, and they can again.

The 2027 elections provide a chance to choose ? slide into APC dominance or rebuild a system where every voice counts.

Will we rise to the challenge? (Sunday Vanguard)

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