If you thought President Donald Trump?s trade war was over, he has some news for you: Tariffs are going up again.

At the conclusion of his Middle East trip Friday, Trump acknowledged that trade negotiations are progressing too slowly to accommodate every country that wants to strike a new trade deal with the United States. So Trump said he?d give other countries a few more weeks, and then Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick would simply tell America?s trading partners what their new tariffs are.

?We have, at the same time, 150 countries that want to make a deal, but you?re not able to see that many countries,? Trump said during a business roundtable in Abu Dhabi Friday. ?So at a certain point, over the next two to three weeks, I think Scott and Howard will be sending letters out, essentially telling people ? we?ll be very fair ? but we?ll be telling people what they?ll be paying to do business in the United States.?

Trump on April 9 paused his massive so-called reciprocal tariffs, which he announced on what he called ?Liberation Day? on April 2. The reprieve was supposed to be for 90 days, to allow countries to negotiate with the administration. Trump officials have said around 100 countries have offered to negotiate deals, setting a tremendously difficult task before US trade negotiators to race against the clock to make new commitments.

Without those negotiated deals, Trump could impose reciprocal tariffs ? some of which are as high as 50%. The tariffs aren?t technically reciprocal, and many smaller countries with large trade gaps with the United States would end up with significant tariff burdens.

?I guess you could say they could appeal it, but for the most part I think we?re going to be very fair, but it?s not possible to meet the number of people that want to see us,? Trump said.

Trump has floated a similar idea before, albeit on a timeframe that has since elapsed.

On April 23, in the Oval Office, Trump said his administration would ?set the tariff? for countries that fail to negotiate new terms in the following few weeks.

?In the end, I think what?s going to happen is we?re going to have great deals, and by the way, if we don?t have a deal with a company or a country, we?re going to set the tariff,? Trump said last month. ?I?d say over the next couple of weeks, wouldn?t you say? I think so. Over the next two, three weeks. We?ll be setting the number.?

So far, the Trump administration has managed to announce two new frameworks for trade negotiations that resulted in lower tariffs or lower trade barriers with other countries. The first was with the United Kingdom, announced earlier this month, and the second was with China, which Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer negotiated in Geneva last weekend.

Trump?s negotiators have said they are in active discussions with a dozen or so countries, and Trump has said he is close to announcing several more agreements. The administration has previously said India and Japan are getting close to a framework of a deal, as is South Korea, although a new government is coming in there, which will delay negotiations.

The new tariffs

It?s not clear what new tariffs Trump will set on countries that are unable to strike a deal with the United States in the coming weeks ? and whether those new tariffs will permanently supersede the paused reciprocal tariffs or merely serve as an interim tariff while negotiations continue. In the meantime, the United States maintains a 10% universal tariff on virtually every good imported to America, plus higher rates for certain products.

Although Lutnick and some other administration officials have described the 10% tariff as a ?baseline,? Trump earlier this month rejected that notion, suggesting that US importers would pay a tariff of more than 10% to bring in goods from most countries.

After announcing the framework for trade negotiations with the UK, Trump said other countries wouldn?t get such a good deal. Unlike the UK, whose tariff was set at 10%, other countries will pay a higher rate, Trump said.

That means tariffs will go higher than where they are today: according to Fitch Ratings, even with the 90-day reciprocal tariff pause, set to expire July 8, the United States maintains a 13% average tariff rate on imported goods. Although that?s lower than the 23% in effect last week, before the Trump administration agreed to lower tariffs on Chinese goods, it?s way higher than the 2.3% average tariff rate from before Trump took office for the second time.

They could go much higher: Trump last month said he?d declare ?total victory? if import taxes were as high as 50% a year from now.

Trump?s back-and-forth stance on tariffs has caused incredible uncertainty for businesses and consumers, and mainstream economists say the chances of a US recession ? though falling as Trump has backed off many of his most aggressive trade policies ? are roughly a coin flip. It has also rattled markets, sending stocks tumbling before they rebounded over the past several weeks as Trump has expressed openness to negotiations on trade.

Where are the deals?

Trump has previously said his administration is rapidly constructing scores of deals that could make trade with other nations fairer and bring manufacturing back to the United States.

?You have to understand, I?m dealing with all the companies, very friendly countries. We?re meeting with China. We?re doing fine with everybody. But ultimately, I?ve made all the deals,? Trump said In a Time interview last month. ?I?ve made 200 deals.?

Trump said in the interview, conducted in late April, that he would announce those deals ?over the next three to four weeks.? That same week, Trump said he?d announce those deals in two to three weeks? time.

Despite Trump and his administration?s rhetoric, actual trade deals take a lot of time ? often years ? to hash out. They typically involve incredibly complex agreements, delving into the minutiae of various goods and nontariff barriers. They often involve significant political considerations, as various parties seek to protect voters with special interests.

So Trump?s concession Friday that hundreds or even dozens of deals aren?t possible on such a short timeframe shows the limitations of threatening tariffs in order to achieve rapid concessions from trading partners with their own vested interests. In the meantime, Americans will be paying more for goods that aren?t made in the United States. (CNN)

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