Research experts from Nextier SPD have reported that over 100 military personnel and 200 civilians were killed by Boko Haram insurgents in Nigeria within five weeks.

The experts also said between November 2024 and April 2025, more than 252 attacks were recorded, with January 2025 recording the highest number of attacks by terrorist groups.

The Nextier SPD Policy Weekly report entitled: ?Re-thinking Nigeria?s Counterinsurgency Strategy: The Aftermath of the Boko Haram Resurgence,? was authored by Dr. Ndu Nwokolo, Managing Partner at Nextier and Honorary Fellow at the School of Government, University of Birmingham, UK and Visiting Research Fellow at the Nathanson Centre on Transnational Human Rights, Crime and Security, York University Canada and Dr. Chibuike Njoku, an Associate Consultant at Nextier, Senior Research Fellow, Institute of Advance Studies, Ile-Ife, and Senior Research Fellow, Institute Francais De Recherche en Afrique (IFRA-Nigeria).

The report examined the current counter-insurgency strategy, analyzes the evolving dynamics of the insurgency, and proposes a comprehensive framework that integrates military efforts with governance reforms, inclusive dialogue, and socioeconomic revitalisation.

According to the report, Nigeria is witnessing a resurgence of Boko Haram activity, particularly in the North East and along its border regions, adding that the group has executed coordinated assaults that resulted in the seizure of three local government areas in Borno State, challenging state authority and obstructing humanitarian efforts.

It said: ?Between November 2024 and April 2025, no fewer than 252 attacks were recorded, resulting in the deaths of over 100 military personnel and more than 200 civilians, highlighting not only the human toll but also the deteriorating security environment.

?The resurgence is further characterised by tactical diversification: Boko Haram?s factional groups of Jama?atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda?awati wal-Jihad, JAS, and Islamic State West Africa Province, ISWAP, have increased the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs), launched ambushes on military convoys, and executed raids on internally displaced persons (IDP) camps and farming communities.

?Despite ongoing military operations and regional cooperation, JAS and ISWAP continue to pose a grave threat to national and regional stability in Nigeria and the Lake Chad region. The recent resurgence of attacks in hard-hit areas like Borno, Yobe, and parts of Adamawa underscores the limited success of current approaches that have prioritised mainly kinetic military actions over holistic, community-driven solutions.

?Reports from humanitarian organisations and conflict monitors have flagged growing fatigue within the military ranks, deteriorating civil-military relations, and increasingly sophisticated insurgent tactics.

?The re-emergence of targeted attacks on soft targets, ambushes on military convoys, and the abduction of civilians, including aid workers and schoolchildren signals a dangerous escalation that current policy frameworks have failed to preempt.?

Nextier-SPD report further explained that recent data from November 2024 to April 2025 provides critical insights into the evolving dynamics of insurgent violence in Nigeria, highlighting the limitations of the current counterinsurgency strategy and underscoring the need for a more holistic, people-centred approach.

It said: ?The number of recorded incidents fluctuated modestly, peaking in January 2025 (eight incidents) and March 2025 (seven incidents). However, the disparity between incident frequency and severity, especially concerning casualties, is striking.

?January 2025 alone recorded 92 deaths despite a relatively average number of incidents. This suggests an escalation in the lethality of attacks, raising questions about the effectiveness of deterrence and intelligence operations.

?Moreover, kidnap victims, an increasingly visible metric of insecurity, were recorded in February, March, and April 2025, with the highest in April (eight victims). This trend points to a diversification of tactics by insurgents and criminal elements, reflecting operational adaptation and exploiting gaps in state response capabilities.

?A glaring policy gap is the failure to integrate socio-economic interventions meaningfully. Data patterns from the reporting period reveal that military victories do not necessarily translate to improved community security and stabilisation.?

?The persistence of violence is compounded by poverty, youth unemployment, and poor access to education and services, which continue to create fertile ground for radicalisation.

?Additionally, the weak coordination among security agencies, reports of human rights abuses, and community resistance to the reintegration of former fighters have eroded trust and undercut intelligence gathering, key pillars of sustainable security. Given these trends, it is evident that the current strategy is reactive rather than preventative.? (Vanguard)

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