In this analysis, Abuja Bureau Chief LEON USIGBE explores the quiet but strategic conversations in the North about positioning former President Goodluck Jonathan as a potent tool to challenge President Bola Tinubu?s re-election bid.

BY 2027, Nigeria?s political terrain may witness another momentous shift, and politicians in the north are already calculating their path to regaining political relevance and control of the presidency. Discontent with President Bola Tinubu?s style of governance and political maneuvering has created fractures within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and stirred ambitions among influential northern figures to upend Tinubu?s second-term bid. However, with zoning and power rotation still deeply embedded in Nigeria?s political culture, the path forward is anything but straightforward.

The southern turn and Tinubu?s southern consolidation

There is a growing consensus that 2027 still falls within the southern turn to hold the presidency, having just taken over from the north in 2023. This is a challenge for northern aspirants. Any overt attempt by a northern politician to run for president in 2027 risks violating the unwritten North-South power-sharing agreement and could alienate the politically powerful southern electorate.

President Tinubu, fully aware of this, has been strategically consolidating his influence across the southern region. The recent string of political defections, particularly from the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC), shows a calculated effort to unify the South behind his 2027 ambition. The South-West remains his political base, the South-South is increasingly being pried open through alignments with key figures, and there are ongoing attempts to make inroads into the South-East.

Tinubu?s broader strategy seems modeled after former President Goodluck Jonathan?s 2011 playbook ? to sweep the entire southern vote and then target Christian-majority areas in the North. Jonathan, a southern Christian from Bayelsa State, triumphed in 2011 despite resistance from a section of the North by building an effective southern coalition and chipping away at northern opposition strongholds.

Northern discontent and the coalition gambit

In northern political circles, there is growing dissatisfaction with the Tinubu administration. Critics cite perceived marginalization, policy missteps, and growing insecurity in parts of the North. Many feel the region, which provided significant support to Tinubu?s 2023 victory, is not adequately represented or rewarded in his government.

This dissatisfaction is fueling the momentum for a new political coalition aimed at ending Tinubu?s reign in 2027. Key figures such as former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Kaduna governor Nasir el-Rufai, former Secretary to the Government of the Federation Babachir Lawal, and former presidential aide, Hakeem Baba Ahmed, are believed to be part of a behind-the-scenes push to realign opposition forces. However, this plan faces a serious dilemma: choosing a candidate who can unify the South without endangering the North?s long-term political goals.

The Goodluck Jonathan proposition

This is where the idea of former President Goodluck Jonathan returning as a consensus candidate in 2027 begins to make strategic sense for northern political operators. There is an ongoing rumour concerning this. Despite being a southerner, Jonathan is seen as a figure who is widely respected in the North due to his perceived humility, commitment to peace, and willingness to exit power gracefully in 2015. Importantly, because Jonathan has already served one term, he is constitutionally limited to just four more years. For northern politicians eyeing the presidency, this is a major advantage.

Backing Jonathan offers a unique win-win scenario. For the North, it?s a chance to defeat Tinubu and still retain a relatively quick pathway back to power by 2031. For the South, especially the South-South and a good portion of the South-East, Jonathan?s return is emotionally and politically resonant. Many southerners believe Jonathan was unfairly removed from power in 2015 despite his developmental efforts and peaceful demeanor. A second term would be viewed as justice restored ? a chance to finish what he started.

Jonathan also brings a moral stature that would be hard for Tinubu to undermine. His image as a statesman has only grown since leaving office, and he has cultivated goodwill across Africa through his work as a peace envoy and democratic advocate.

Why not Peter Obi?

While some in the opposition are drawn to the candidacy of Peter Obi, the former Anambra governor and 2023 Labour Party presidential candidate, his potential emergence poses complications for northern ambitions. Obi, a southern Christian, could potentially serve two full terms if elected ? effectively delaying the North?s return to power until 2035.

Moreover, Obi?s support base is largely concentrated in the South-East, urban centers, and among younger voters. While his movement ? the ?Obidients??shook the political establishment in 2023, many northern elites still view him as politically untested at the national level and ideologically rigid in a way that may not align with northern pragmatism.

Strategic realignment, not sentiment

Backing Jonathan does not require the North to relinquish control permanently; rather, it?s a strategic realignment designed to weaken Tinubu?s dominance and reassert northern influence over the long term. Jonathan is not expected to contest for another term after 2027, which means political heavyweights from the North ? especially those who may be too young or too controversial today ? can begin positioning themselves early for 2031.

This strategy is also bolstered by the increasing hardship under Tinubu?s administration. With inflation soaring, job losses mounting, and insecurity persisting, the general mood in the country may tilt toward a candidate seen as a consensus builder and a calming presence ? qualities Jonathan has come to embody.

Challenges ahead

The plan is not without its complications. First, Jonathan would need to be persuaded to run ? a move he has so far resisted, opting instead to maintain his elder statesman role. There is also the question of political platform: would he run under the PDP, the Labour Party, or another coalition-backed party? His re-entry would likely require some sacrifice and compromise among opposition parties.

Additionally, Tinubu remains a formidable political operator. His control of the APC machinery, incumbency advantages, and deep war chest will be difficult to counter. The federal government?s ability to leverage state resources and institutions for electoral purposes is a reality that cannot be ignored.

In the high-stakes politics of 2027, the North may not be able to frontally challenge President Tinubu with one of its own without alienating the South or breaking the zoning convention. However, by backing Goodluck Jonathan ? a southern politician with northern goodwill and only one term to serve ? northern leaders may have found a powerful compromise candidate. This approach not only allows them to wrest control from Tinubu but also sets the stage for a swift return to power by 2031.

Ultimately, 2027 may not just be about parties or regions. It could come down to strategy, alliances, and timing ? and in that game, the Jonathan option might just be the North?s best shot. (Sunday Tribune: Text, Excluding Headline)

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