The Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), Northern Nigeria?s foremost socio-cultural organisation, has declared that the North will only support candidates in the 2027 general elections who are committed to protecting and promoting the region?s interests.

This was disclosed on Wednesday by Alhaji Bashir Dalhatu, chairman of the forum?s Board of Trustees, at the start of the board?s meeting in Kaduna. The meeting was convened to address critical issues affecting the region and the nation at large.

In attendance were four former governors: Ibrahim Shekarau (Kano), Ramalan Yero (Kaduna), Simon Lalong (Plateau), and Ahmed Makarfi (Kaduna). Also present were former Minister of Information Lai Mohammed; retired Army spokesman, Brigadier General Sani Kukasheka Usman; former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal; and former political adviser to the president in the office of the vice president, Dr. Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, among others.

Dalhatu, a former Minister of Power and Steel, emphasised that the region?s loyalty would not lie with any particular political figure or party but with those who genuinely care about the North.

?Northern Nigeria will remain faithful not to particular politicians or political parties but to those who care about our regional interests and are willing to promote and protect them,? he stated.

He highlighted the North?s numerical and political advantage and called for unity among stakeholders to overcome challenges and present a formidable bloc.

?Northern Nigeria is today bedevilled by numerous existential problems. But what is not in doubt is the fact that the North has in abundance what it takes to compete and prevail in any fair competition within Nigeria?and even the wider African continent.

?The North has 19 out of the 36 states, and we also have the FCT as a veritable component. We have a majority in the Senate, the House of Representatives, the National Economic Council, and the Council of State. The North occupies close to 75 per cent of Nigeria?s land area and about 60 per cent of the population.

?An area this big and this strong can never be subdued by any opponent, provided we remain united and place our region above all other considerations. United we stand, divided we fall,? he said.

Forum warns against ?premature? politicking, echoes Baba-Ahmed?s stance

The ACF also expressed disapproval of the current political alignments ahead of the 2027 elections, warning that such distractions are detrimental to governance.

?The view has been expressed?and it bears repeating?that the current preoccupation with the 2027 national elections is premature and a disservice to the principle of the four-year term limit given to elected officials,? Dalhatu said.

He revealed that the North is monitoring the performance of public officials, particularly those at the federal level, and is considering the establishment of a committee to thoroughly assess government programmes and policies.

?We have received a number of proposals from some of our elders that this body appoints a special committee to conduct a detailed study and review of the policies, projects and programmes embarked upon by the current government and determine how they have impacted the various parts of the country?particularly Northern Nigeria.

?This is perhaps the best way to determine whether or not our interests are being sufficiently accommodated. For the avoidance of doubt, we must reiterate our belief in the principle that all politics is local. In other words, Northern Nigeria will remain faithful not to particular politicians or political parties but to those who care about our regional interests and are willing to promote and protect them,? he said.

The ACF?s position appears to align with recent remarks by Dr Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, who resigned from his role as political adviser to the vice president. Baba-Ahmed, a former spokesman for the Northern Elders Forum (NEF), had asserted that the North would no longer vote blindly or repeat past mistakes.

?In the next six months, the North will decide where it stands. If the rest of the country wants to join us, fine. If not, we will go our own way. One thing is clear: nobody can become president of Nigeria without northern support,? he had said.

Kperogi: Presidency possible without full Northern backing

Reacting to Baba-Ahmed?s earlier statement that ?no one can become president of Nigeria without northern support,? US-based Nigerian academic and columnist, Professor Farooq Kperogi, described the assertion as ?problematic? and potentially counterproductive, adding that such does not hold water historically.

He said that based on historical evidence, a presidential candidate does not need overwhelming northern support to win, adding that Baba-Ahmed?s statement might have played into the hands of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

?In 2003, Obasanjo won re-election without getting overwhelming support from the North. In 2011, Goodluck Jonathan also won without overwhelming support from the North. So, to make that self-sabotaging boast is basically handing rhetorical, politically symbolic ammunition to the person in power.

?All he needs to win is to whip up sentiments that suggest the North is suffering from a power-withdrawal syndrome?that they can?t afford to be outside of power, and want to get it back not to improve your lot, but because they feel isolated, like fish out of water,? Kperogi said.

He argued that such rhetoric could inadvertently strengthen President Bola Tinubu?s hand heading into 2027 by allowing him to frame the North?s push for power as an emotional rather than issue-based campaign.

?All Tinubu needs to do is spin it as a ?power withdrawal syndrome??that the North wants power not to fix Nigeria, but simply because it feels excluded,? Kperogi said. ?That narrative, while not necessarily accurate, can be potent in a symbolic and emotional political space.?

The professor warned that the opposition risks undermining its own cause by shifting the conversation away from governance failures toward ethno-regional politics.

?That?s why I say the opposition might lose, not because Tinubu has won. The objective conditions for Tinubu?s loss are there?the economy has tanked, a lot of people can?t afford to eat, there is insecurity everywhere, and there is a sense of siege surrounding everyone. Typically, in such circumstances, people want another government, hoping a different leader might bring a new approach. But the way the opposition is behaving is shifting the conversation from those concerns to emotional rhetoric,? he added.

According to Kperogi, the focus should remain on articulating a coherent alternative vision for Nigeria?one that transcends regional or ethnic claims to power.

Only a strong northern candidate can unseat Tinubu ? Dele Momodu

Former presidential candidate and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) chieftain, Dele Momodu, has stressed the need for the opposition to field a strong and popular northern candidate if President Bola Tinubu is to be dislodged in the 2027 general elections.

Speaking during an appearance on Arise TV on Wednesday, Momodu said growing discontent in the northern region, stemming from perceived marginalisation under Tinubu?s administration, could galvanise voters and shift the political balance.

He argued that only a well-supported northern candidate could realistically challenge Tinubu?s grip on power, given the strategic electoral importance of the North.

?I believe Tinubu can only be effectively countered by another strong candidate from the North. Any Southerner who thinks they can challenge Tinubu is likely wasting their time.

?The PDP, or any coalition, must recognise that power dynamics require strategic thinking. They cannot expect success with a Southern candidate alone if they truly wish to contest Tinubu?s position,? he said.

Momodu noted that many in the North feel alienated under the current administration, alleging favouritism toward the South. He said such sentiments, if well harnessed, could provide momentum for the opposition in 2027.

Commenting on speculation around Atiku Abubakar?s political future, Momodu dismissed claims that the former vice president might defect to the APC, describing such reports as baseless.

?The claim that Atiku will join the APC is simply implausible; I can guarantee that. The APC itself is riddled with internal problems, lacking the discipline or cohesion to address critical issues,? he said.

What ACF, North must demand before giving support ? Analysts

Meanwhile analysts have urged Northern leaders?particularly the ACF?to go beyond rhetoric and focus on concrete demands that reflect the real needs of northern Nigerians.

Lukman Abubakar, a Kaduna-based political analyst and community peace observer, acknowledged the ACF?s long-standing influence but cautioned that securing widespread support across the region would require a broader, more pragmatic approach.

?To me, while the ACF has rightly prioritised northern interests and land reform, broader issues must be addressed. Top on the list is security. Northern voters want to see real, tangible improvements?less banditry, fewer kidnappings, and a decline in insurgency?not just more promises,? he said.

He also cited economic hardship as a major concern: ?The cost of living is unbearable, poverty is widespread, and youth unemployment is out of control. People want jobs, infrastructure, and serious anti-corruption measures?not political slogans.?

According to him, the economic downturn under the current administration has further alienated many northern communities, making inclusive representation?especially in the choice of running mates?an important issue.

On the ACF?s warning against premature politicking, Abubakar said the concern was valid.

?Premature campaigning distracts leaders from governance, stokes political tension, and can deepen ethnic and religious fault lines,? he said, adding that groups like the ACF may also be positioning early to shape the presidential race and influence the emerging field of aspirants.

Abubakar Ibrahim, a political analyst and Director of Information and Public Relations at the Federal University of Lafia, offered a historical perspective, cautioning against treating the North as a monolithic voting bloc.

?We must remember that the North has never been politically uniform. From NEPU to the defunct NPC, to modern parties, voters have always supported a mix of ideologies. Even within the ACF, political loyalties vary widely,? he said.

Describing the ACF as a respected socio-cultural body with limited political enforcement power, Ibrahim said: ?It can bark, but it cannot bite. Its influence is constrained by internal divisions.?

From Ilorin, Kwara State, a political scientist, Dr. Mohammed Alada, argued that the ACF?s recent statement should be seen in the context of political realignments ahead of 2027.

?Don?t forget that the ruling party has a northern vice president who will be determined to retain that role and win over the region. The ACF?s message is strategic?it aims to place the North firmly at the centre of national discourse ahead of the polls,? he said.

Alada warned that northern unity at the polls should not be taken for granted: ?There are growing internal divisions. Kwankwaso, for instance, is being courted by the APC. These competing interests could fragment the northern vote, unlike previous elections where the North often voted en masse.?

He added that in light of the federal government?s control of significant resources, anyone hoping to secure northern votes would need to bring something ?concrete to the table.?

?So, 2027 will be about interests?not just promises or empty slogans,? he said.

Professor Sani Kamilu Fage, a senior lecturer in Political Science at Bayero University, Kano, said that any party genuinely committed to addressing insecurity, poverty, youth unemployment and equitable appointments would naturally appeal to northern voters.

Fage supported the ACF?s criticism of premature political scheming, arguing that early politicking violates the spirit of the Electoral Act and distracts from governance.

?The Constitution permits campaigning only 150 days before elections. Right now, rather than focusing on service delivery, both leaders and the electorate are caught up in political calculations. It?s a needless drain on attention and public resources,? he said.

He stressed the enduring relevance of the ACF, warning that political actors who ignore its sentiments risk alienating a key bloc.

From Kwara State University, Dr. Muhammad Danjuma said early political campaigns, while unlawful under Nigeria?s electoral guidelines, were not unique to the country.

?In many democracies, campaigning begins immediately after elections. Political parties never stop engaging?they just change strategies,? he said.

Still, Danjuma stressed that northern voters would be looking for substantive solutions in 2027.

?The region wants clear, practical policies?on insecurity, food security, youth unemployment, and the almajiri crisis,? he said. ?Any candidate who can provide compelling answers to these challenges will win the North?s attention.?

?Insecurity worsening despite government efforts?

The ACF also expressed concern over worsening insecurity across the North despite ongoing efforts by security agencies.

?While we remain extremely grateful for the work done by these eminent members, we regret to observe that the situation, particularly that of insecurity in Northern Nigeria, has not improved. In fact, despite the best efforts of our increasingly overstretched security forces, it has gotten worse and continues to deteriorate by the day,? Dalhatu said.

He cited persistent attacks and killings in Plateau, Borno, Benue, Niger, Zamfara, Sokoto, Katsina and other states, while vowing that the forum would continue to collaborate with leaders to resolve the crisis.

?We assure all the people of the North of our determination to take all necessary measures in consultation and collaboration with our political, traditional, religious and other leaders to bring this crisis to an end in the shortest time possible,? he said.

Dalhatu also condemned attacks on Northerners in the South, saying, ?Even innocent Northerners on journeys through southern states get killed or subjected to inhumane treatment?a tragedy which, unfortunately, successive administrations in this country have failed to stop.?

He added that perceived discriminatory policies by the federal government have led to growing resentment and disenchantment among Northerners.

?These negative developments have prompted growing disillusionment amongst northerners against the Federation of Nigeria. Some in the North now openly question the rationale or justification for remaining in the union,? he said.

Porous borders aggravate North?s security challenges ? Expert

A counter-terrorism and intelligence expert, Abdullahi Garba, has urged northern leaders to take decisive action in addressing the region?s porous borders, which he identified as a major contributor to its persistent insecurity.

Speaking in an interview with one of our correspondents, Garba emphasised the need for collaboration between authorities and border communities across states like Katsina, Yobe, Borno, and Adamawa, which share frontiers with Niger Republic, Chad, and Cameroon.

?All Northern leaders can end insecurity if they want to. What they need to do is simple. Porous borders are the bane of this development. They should just liaise with the communities like Jibia in Katsina State, and others in Adamawa, Yobe and Borno. ?If those communities that share borders with the Niger Republic, Chad and Cameroon are properly manned, 80 per cent of the security challenges will be solved,? he said.

Garba also called on the federal government to consider the establishment of a specialised border guard unit, distinct from the Nigeria Customs Service and the Nigeria Immigration Service.

He explained that while customs officers focus on contraband goods and immigration personnel handle the regulation of human movement, neither agency is primarily tasked with securing the borders against threats.

?Serious countries like Ghana have dedicated border guards, separate from immigration and customs. Customs are about goods, immigration is about people?but border security in the real sense goes beyond both,? he noted.

On the role of the military, Garba clarified that their mandate is focused on repelling external aggression and defending the country?s territorial integrity, rather than managing daily border security operations. (Daily Trust)

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