In a strongly worded policy advisory released today, Tuesday, April 29, 2025, Prof. Chiwuike Uba, renowned development economist and Chairman of the Board of the ACUF Initiative for Policy and Governance, has called for a decisive, inclusive, and well-sequenced approach to Nigeria?s economic transformation.

Prof. Uba urged Nigerian authorities to urgently address what he termed a ?misalignment of national priorities,? citing rising debt, entrenched poverty, escalating insecurity, record unemployment, and deepening macroeconomic instability as symptoms of underlying policy gaps and implementation missteps.

?This is a defining moment for Nigeria,? Uba said. ?The choices we make now will determine whether we entrench resilience or spiral further into instability.?

Nigeria?s Fragile Economic Outlook: Why the Urgency?

Drawing on the findings of the April 2025 Africa?s Pulse report, Uba noted that Nigeria?s macroeconomic performance continues to lag regional peers. ?We are faced with a paradox,? he said. ?Despite our immense resource endowments, Nigeria remains trapped in cycles of low growth with GDP growth failing to match population growth and per capita incomes steadily declining, fiscal distress, and insecurity. We cannot afford to continue business as usual.?

Despite its resource abundance, Nigeria remains heavily dependent on crude oil, which accounts for over 75% of foreign exchange earnings. Uba stressed that sectors like agriculture and manufacturing remain underutilized due to regulatory bottlenecks, poor infrastructure, policy inconsistency, inadequate financing, and weak policy coordination.

To reposition Nigeria for sustainable growth, Uba proposed a bold, multi-sectoral reform agenda anchored on the following pillars:

Economic Diversification

Prioritize climate-resilient agriculture through targeted subsidies, irrigation, and farmer support services.
Create regional industrial clusters and export-processing zones.
Incentivize SMEs and tech innovation in underserved regions through concessional financing and regulatory reform.

Human Capital Investment

Allocate a minimum of 10% of the national budget to education, with urgent attention to out-of-school children, teacher shortages, and education infrastructure.
Raise health sector allocations to 8% of the national budget, expanding primary healthcare coverage and addressing the brain drain of medical professionals.
Dedicate 1% of GDP annually to vocational and technical training, with centers established across all LGAs.

Debt Management & Revenue Expansion

Pursue strategic debt restructuring, rather than further borrowing, to create fiscal space.
Introduce a robust, digital tax regime to expand the tax net and improve compliance.
Reallocate spending from wasteful subsidies to productive sectors.

The Security Paradox: More Spending, More Instability

Over the past decade (2014?2025), Nigeria has spent over N40 trillion on defense and security. In the 2025 budget, security and defense received N6.11 trillion?exceeding the combined N5.7 trillion allocated to education, health, and skills development. ?This imbalance reflects a persistent misdiagnosis of the root causes of insecurity,? Uba stated. ?You cannot bomb your way out of poverty.?

Despite the massive investment, insecurity remains widespread?from insurgencies in the Northeast to rural banditry, kidnappings, and communal clashes in the Middle Belt and Southeast. Uba called for a shift from militarized responses to preventive investments in social welfare, justice, and inclusive governance.

Governance, Jobs, and Accountability

With unemployment at 33.3% and youth unemployment topping 42%, Uba described job creation as a national emergency. He proposed a National Job Creation Corps to employ youth in agriculture, construction, renewable energy, and digital innovation.

To tackle corruption and restore trust in government, he emphasized:

Strengthening anti-corruption agencies through legal and operational reforms.
Mainstreaming e-governance tools for procurement, budgeting, and service delivery.
Institutionalizing transparency via real-time, publicly accessible fiscal dashboards.

He also called for electoral reforms to guarantee greater youth and women inclusion, through quotas and financing support for underrepresented candidates.

Commending the Tinubu Administration ? With Critical Lessons

Prof. Uba acknowledged the Tinubu administration?s politically bold reforms, notably:

The removal of fuel subsidies, saving over N1 trillion annually.
The unification of exchange rates, which has curbed arbitrage and sent positive signals to investors.
A renewed emphasis on capital expenditure, including transportation, power, and digital infrastructure.

?These are commendable first steps,? Uba said, ?but policy design is only as good as its implementation.? Nevertheless, Uba cautioned that while fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate unification were necessary, their execution lacked sequencing, social cushioning, and institutional preparedness, thus exacerbating hardship.

Prof. Uba noted that the removal caused a spike in transportation and food prices, disproportionately affecting the poor and middle class. He stated that government should have first rolled out targeted investments in cottage industries and support to MSMEs, subsidized public transport, and expanded social registers before deregulation. On exchange rate unification (with FX market reform), he noted that the sudden unification caused a sharp devaluation and inflation surge, worsening the cost-of-living crisis. He stated that a phased approach with FX market stabilization, credible reserve management, and investor confidence-building would have yielded better outcomes. ?It is not just about the what, but the how,? Uba warned. ?Reform sequencing matters as much as the reform itself.?

A Vision for a Secure, Inclusive, and Prosperous Nigeria

Prof. Uba called for a new development compact that redefines Nigeria?s priorities from short-term crisis firefighting to long-term capacity building. His key message to Nigeria?s leaders and international partners: ?Nigeria doesn?t just need more money. It needs better ideas, better governance, and better delivery.?

?We must not continue to invest heavily in fighting symptoms while ignoring root causes,? Uba concluded. ?The only path to a stable, prosperous Nigeria is through inclusive growth, strategic investments in people, and accountable leadership.?

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