The New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) in Kano and its ideological subgroup, the Kwankwasiyya movement, are facing a political storm as a wave of defections reshapes the landscape.

At the centre of the uncertainty is the party?s 2023 presidential candidate and national leader, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, whose political fate now hangs in the balance.

The latest blow to the NNPP came with the defection of Senator Abdulrahman Kawu Sumaila, who represents Kano South. Although Sumaila has not formally declared his new political home, his social media post?featuring a photo with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and a recent meeting with Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, National Chairman of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), after confirming appeal from his constituents to join the ruling party?suggests an imminent move to the APC.

This follows recent remarks by Ganduje, who claimed the APC would soon welcome several NNPP lawmakers from Kano State.

?They?ve seen the handwriting on the wall,? Ganduje said. ?The APC is the only viable platform for serious politicians who want to deliver real governance.?

Meanwhile, Ganduje, on Thursday, hosted a group of NNPP/Kwankwasiyya defectors. Those received included Senator Kawu Sumaila; Rep. Kabiru Rurum (Rano/Kibiya/Bunkure); Rep. Abdullahi Sani Rogo (Karaye/Rogo); and former Kano State Secretary to the Government, Dr. Baffa Bichi.

Others were former House of Representatives members Hon. Badamasi Ayuba (Danbatta/Makoda) and Hon. Sha?aban Sharada (Kano Municipal); former state assembly member Zubairu Hamza Masu; and two former NNPP commissioners, Muhammad Diggol and Abbas Sani Abbas.

Except for Sharada, most of the defectors were former stakeholders in the Kwankwasiyya movement, who resigned their membership and joined the APC, citing what they described as injustice within the group.

Ganduje stated that a new date would soon be announced for their formal reception into the ruling party.

Back in March, the Kano State NNPP chapter suspended Sumaila and three other members of the House of Representatives?Aliyu Sani Madaki, Kabiru Alhasan Rurum, and Abdullahi Sani Rogo, who were all part of Sumaila?s meeting with Ganduje?for alleged anti-party activities.

Also in March, the NNPP lost its only House of Representatives member from Jigawa State, Yusuf Galambi, who defected to APC.

Will Kwankwaso submit?or will Ganduje step aside?

These defections have sparked intense debate: Can the NNPP survive the storm? What does the future hold for Kwankwaso? Will he defect like his associates or remain to rebuild the party ahead of the 2027 general elections? Speculation ranges from a potential return to the APC?possibly as a vice-presidential candidate?to an alliance with the Social Democratic Party (SDP).

However, amid growing speculation about a possible return to the APC?a move many observers consider increasingly likely?questions have emerged over how such a development would unfold under the current leadership of Abdullahi Ganduje.

Analysts are asking whether Kwankwaso would be willing to operate under Ganduje?s authority or if President Tinubu might pursue an alternative strategy to address the potential friction.

One scenario reportedly under consideration involves offering Ganduje an ambassadorial appointment, which would maintain his national relevance while reducing his political dominance in Kano. Supporters of Kwankwaso believe such a move could ease the path for the Kwankwasiyya leader?s re-entry into the ruling party.

Kwankwaso?s political trajectory

Kwankwaso began his political career in 1992 when he won a seat in the House of Representatives under the Social Democratic Party (SDP), representing Kura/Madobi/Garun Malam Federal Constituency. He later became Deputy Speaker. With the return to civilian rule in 1999, he was elected governor of Kano State under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), with Ganduje as his deputy. He served until 2003, after which he was appointed Minister of Defence and later served as Nigeria?s envoy to Sudan?s Darfur region.

After being blocked from contesting in 2007, Kwankwaso returned in 2011 and reclaimed the governorship under the PDP, again with Ganduje as his deputy. However, the political alliance between the two unravelled during Ganduje?s first term as governor, leading to Kwankwaso cross-carpeting from APC and returning to PDP.

In 2019, Kwankwaso backed Abba Kabir Yusuf as PDP?s gubernatorial candidate, but Yusuf lost in a controversial election. By 2022, Kwankwaso left the PDP and joined the then-obscure NNPP, becoming its presidential candidate for the 2023 elections. Though he secured only Kano State, the NNPP made significant gains, winning the governorship, two Senate seats, 18 of 24 House of Representatives seats, and a majority in the State House of Assembly.

After Tinubu?s overture, Ganduje predicts Kwankwaso?s return to APC

After the presidential poll, there were discussions between Kwankwaso and the winner, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, on having him in the government. But following the release of the ministerial list, the absence of Kwankwaso?s name signalled that the talks broke down along the way.

But, Tinubu did not give up on efforts to have Kwankwaso on his side. He directed Ganduje to work on ensuring the return to the APC of the man believed to be the most popular in the North after former President Muhammadu Buhari. That directive, however, didn?t yield the expected results, especially after Ganduje?s public declaration that should Kwankwaso joined the APC, he would have to subject himself to his (Ganduje?s) leadership.

Months later, Ganduje publicly predicted Kwankwaso?s return to the APC, describing the NNPP?s 2023 outing as a ?disaster? and claiming that the party?s collapse makes a reunion inevitable.

Speaking during a visit by the Tinubu Support Group at the APC National Secretariat in Abuja, Ganduje said the APC had already begun receiving defectors and was awaiting Kwankwaso?s return.

?The truth is, Kwankwaso has no political future outside the APC,? Ganduje told reporters in Abuja. ?We are ready to receive him, but on our terms, not his.?

Silence from Kwankwaso?s camp

Efforts to get a response from Kwankwaso?s camp proved futile. One anonymous source indicated that, for strategic reasons, they would not comment yet.

?Politics is about timing,? the source said. ?We will speak when it matters most. Right now, it?s about studying the moves on the board.?

But the chairman of NNPP in Kano State, Hashimu Sulaiman Dungurawa, who is also one of Kwankwaso?s top allies, downplayed the defections, stating that only Senator Kawu Sumaila has officially left the party?though without formally informing them.

?To the best of our knowledge, only one person has left,? Dungurawa said. ?Even he hasn?t officially told us. If he thinks the APC is his salvation, time will tell.?

He continued, ?We dismissed him and others last month because, frankly, they brought no value to the movement anymore.?

Dungurawa, however, declined to comment on Kwankwaso?s next move, stating that only the party leader could speak on the matter.

Buba Galadima: Kwankwaso is not returning to APC

However, a close associate and NNPP chieftain, Engineer Buba Galadima, has denied rumours of Kwankwaso?s potential return to the APC.

In a recent interview, Galadima said only failed politicians talk about the next election midway through a political term. He condemned Ganduje?s claims, asserting that the APC national chairman was using NNPP for media relevance.

?Kwankwaso has nothing to do with Ganduje?s APC. That?s a political circus,? he said.

He added, ?Even if there were talks, do you think Ganduje would be the one to announce it? He?s clinging to media relevance through our name.

?If we were to join the APC, would the news come from Ganduje?? he asked rhetorically. ?Because of him, nobody wants to join APC. Ganduje wouldn?t be chairman of any party if not for Tinubu.?

He also dismissed speculations about Kwankwaso joining a coalition with former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, under the SDP. ?Our ideology is different. We stand for the poor, and we reject politicians who enrich themselves at the expense of the people,? Galadima said.

?God willing, our time will come. The 2023 elections were only a test. The real verdict is yet to be delivered by the people?and by God,? he also said.

Analyst: Kwankwaso faces two critical choices

Dr. Kabiru Sufi, a political analyst and lecturer at Skyline University, Kano, says Kwankwaso is at a crossroads. Whether he stays with the NNPP or defects, both paths present significant challenges.

?If he stays, he?ll need to rebuild his grassroots from scratch in some areas,? Dr. Sufi explained.

He said, ?Many of those leaving helped secure electoral wins in their constituencies. Replacing them will be no small task.

?But if he defects?especially to a party other than APC?he will have to justify the move to both new allies and old enemies,? he continued.

On the other hand, joining another party could force Kwankwaso into uneasy alliances or electoral clashes with his former allies. ?Even within the APC, reconciling with Ganduje?s camp won?t be smooth. He?ll need to reconcile with old rivals or prove his strength in future elections,? he added.

If Kwankwaso chooses to join the APC, Sufi believes the move?s success hinges on how well he justifies the decision to his supporters. ?He must convincingly explain why he?s returning to a party he once criticised, or risk losing part of his base.?

As the 2027 election looms on the horizon, Kwankwaso?s next political step will likely define not just his career, but the future of the NNPP and the Kwankwasiyya movement. (Daily Trust)

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