The World Bank?s verdict on Nigeria?s poverty level has attracted widespread outcry, with some interest groups demanding urgent action to avoid a poverty-induced economic meltdown.

The International Monetary Fund, IMF, and the World Bank, WB, at the just-concluded 2025 Spring meetings in Washington, D.C., United States of America, painted a gloomy picture of Nigeria?s economic outlook in the short to medium term.

Among the highlights was the downgrading of the country?s economic growth forecast, with an indication that the country?s economic policy reforms are largely ineffective in addressing inclusive growth. The institutions ended with a declaration that poverty rate in the country would increase by 2027.

Speaking to Financial Vanguard at the end of the World Bank/ IMF meetings economy observers and Civil Society Organisations, CSOs, expressed embarrassment over Nigeria?s rating in the Spring meetings.

While outlining the key challenges they also made recommendations aimed at salvaging the economy from the looming danger predicted by the global institutions.

Meanwhile, commenting on the World Bank?s verdict on Nigeria?s economy, President of the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines, and Agriculture (NACCIMA), Dele Oye, proposed some short-term interventions that could help shield Nigeria?s vulnerable population and make meaningful progress in the fight against poverty.

But while expressing concerns about the World Bank?s verdict, the ActionAid Nigeria (AAN) said it was unsurprised by the grim projections of the World Bank.

The Country Director, AAN, Andrew Mamedu, said, ?ActionAid Nigeria is deeply concerned, yet unsurprised, by the grim projections from the World Bank?s April 2025 Africa?s Pulse report, which forecasts a 3.6 percentage point increase in Nigeria?s poverty rate by 2027.

?Governance remains Nigeria?s greatest obstacle. The World Bank has clearly highlighted the country?s poor performance on governance indicators such as government effectiveness, accountability, and political stability, which remain among the weakest in Africa.

Public institutions continue to fail in managing resources and delivering basic services, which is also widening the trust deficit between citizens and government.

?Institutions like the National Assembly, Judiciary, and others, who are supposed to hold the government accountable and ensure resources are available for the people, are rather making routine approvals and focus on issues that do not support the populace.

?While poverty deepened, the federal, state governments and lawmakers prioritised luxury over lives, budgeting billions for new SUVs and renovation of offices.

?President Tinubu?s administration has continued to sidestep meaningful structural reforms, pushing social protection rhetoric that barely scratches the surface, while ignoring the real cries of the people.

?So, the World Bank is right to raise the alarm, but Nigerians have been raising it long before now.

?Let it be clear: the current trajectory will only fuel further migration, brain drain, instability, and disillusionment. Nigeria is at risk of becoming the global capital of extreme poverty, despite being Africa?s largest economy.

?While the government may claim economic progress, the reality is that the rich are getting richer, benefiting from policies like those in the banking sector where profits have soared to N3.41 trillion, while the poor are getting poorer.

?This is not inclusive growth. Reforms must ensure that the most vulnerable benefit.?

Also speaking to Financial Vanguard on the World Bank?s verdict on Nigeria?s economy, a human rights lawyer and activist, Deji Adeyanju, said, ?The World Bank?s Africa?s Pulse report for April 2025 paints a sobering picture for Nigeria, forecasting a 3.6 percentage point increase in poverty by 2027, driven by structural economic weaknesses, overreliance on oil, and national fragility.

?This projection highlights a harsh reality: Nigeria, despite being Africa?s largest economy, remains a global epicenter of poverty, hosting 15% of the world?s extremely poor population, with over 106 million Nigerians living below the $2.15 per day threshold in 2024.

?Nigeria?s poverty crisis is both deep and multifaceted, characterized by income poverty, multidimensional deprivation, and stark inequality.

?Key data points illustrate the scale of the challenge: In 2023, 38.9% of Nigerians (approximately 87 million people) lived below the national poverty line, making Nigeria the world?s second-largest poor population after India. By 2024, 106 million Nigerians were in extreme poverty, reflecting a persistent upward trend.

?Inflation, driven by food and fuel price spikes, erodes purchasing power.? The naira?s 40% depreciation in 2024 amplified import costs, disproportionately affecting the poor.

?Insecurity disrupts agricultural production, displaces communities, and deters investment, particularly in northern Nigeria, where poverty is most acute.

?With 3.5 million Nigerians entering the labor force annually, weak job creation and entrepreneurial prospects drive unemployment and emigration, further entrenching poverty?.

Also speaking to Financial Vanguard on the World Bank?s poverty rating for Nigeria, the Executive Director, Civil Society Legislative and Advocacy Centre, CISLAC, Awual Rafsanjani said, ?This report coming from the World Bank is not surprising to us because all the signs are there. We have been advising the Nigerian government to carry out better reforms, economic reforms to address poverty, inequality, and ensure financing for development, and block or reduce or minimize opportunities for corruption and embezzlement.

?There?s no way you can have this kind of tendency of reckless spending, looting, excessive borrowing for just personal consumption or diversion, and lack of productivity in the economy without adverse consequence. ?Even our trade and investment is not yielding the result it?s supposed to yield, and definitely this projection by the World Bank will not be a surprising thing.

?In most of our States, the governors and the leadership are not harnessing the resources in their States. Rather they embark on gigantic unproductive projects just for the sake of taking money away, not for addressing gaps in education, in healthcare system, and even in the infrastructure.

?If this kind of mindset is continued, there?s no way you can deal with the issues of poverty and inequality because if the whole idea of governance is to grab the resources, is to steal the money, is to institutionalize impunity and recklessness in governance, definitely you will continue to witness more Nigerians experiencing poverty?.

Meanwhile, NACCIMA boss, Oye, who is also the current Chairman of the Organised Private Sector of Nigeria (OPSN), has made some recommendations on how Nigeria can escape the World Bank?s poverty prediction saying, ?The government should implement well-structured and targeted stimulus packages focused on vulnerable populations?.

Such measures, according to him, should include cash transfers, food assistance programmes, and direct support to small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to stimulate job creation.

He stated further: ?Independent monitoring and thorough evaluation must be instituted across all processes to curb instances of abuse and corruption.

?Given that a significant proportion of Nigerians rely on agriculture for their livelihoods, there is a need for targeted investment in this sector. Subsidising inputs, providing long-term single-digit credit, and expanding training programmes can help increase food security and foster sustainable livelihoods.

?Expanding access to microfinance for small businesses, cooperatives, and entrepreneurs will promote self-employment and help reduce poverty.

?Facilitating favourable lending conditions specifically for women and youth is crucial, alongside the urgent development of youth-targeted capital to address the ongoing trend of the ?Japa Syndrome?.

?Establishing robust vocational and skills training programmes for the unemployed and underemployed will enhance employability and support new entrepreneurs in high-demand sectors.

?Improving infrastructure, particularly in rural areas, will increase market access for farmers and small businesses, leading to increased incomes and, ultimately, poverty reduction.

?There is a need to introduce tax incentives for businesses investing in underserved regions and for those prioritising local employment.

?Public-private partnerships should be encouraged to finance economic development initiatives, leveraging combined resources and expertise for efficient delivery of social impact.

?Expanding social safety nets, which include unemployment benefits and healthcare access, will provide much-needed relief to those facing financial distress and support their pathways to recovery.

?It is vital for the government to act swiftly and decisively to restore peace and security, especially in rural communities, thereby creating a stable environment for agricultural productivity and investment.

?Nigeria should reduce its reliance on raw material exports and instead prioritise adding value through local manufacturing.?

In a comment sent to Financial Vanguard, the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf, said Federal Government should take bold steps to address the key drivers of poverty to prevent the gloomy prediction by World Bank from coming to pass.

His words: ?This kind of statement from the World Bank can only be conditional, because if the government does the right things, then the situation will not be as gloomy as it has been presented.

?If the government is able to address the key drivers of poverty, then the poverty situation may not deteriorate beyond what it is. If anything, it could be reversed. We have seen it done in other countries like China, where a lot more people have been taken out of poverty because of the kind of policies and governance that are in place.

?So, I think it?s more about how effectively we are able to address the social issues in the country. Therefore, we should be looking at drivers of poverty and how to correct them

?The first, in my view, is to address the rising cost of living. These are essentially the costs of food, energy, transportation, logistics and many other basic things that the poor consume.

?It is the increasing cost of living that makes a lot of people drop into poverty. If we are able to moderate the costs, then many more people will be able to live above poverty. These variables I mentioned are the critical issues as far as the cost of living is concerned.

?The second major thing that the government can do to ensure that this gloomy prediction does not come true is to address the macroeconomic management dimensions of the drivers of poverty. By this, I mean how well the government is able to tame inflation through its macroeconomic policies. Inflation is the greatest enemy of the poor.

?So, this means that we should be worried about the growth of fiscal deficit, reducing the debt level and debt servicing commitments which often squeezes the fiscal space. We should worry about growing money supply which is also, many times, inflationary.

?The third point is that the government should address the issue of productivity because when we have an economy where productivity is an issue, it affects everybody ? both the small and large businesses. Because productivity determines the ability to be able to create wealth, to create value. It determines how much effort we need to put in to achieve a particular outcome.

?So, we need to ensure that we create the environment that enhances productivity. And at the centre of that is government investment in infrastructure ? energy, logistics, roads, railway system, power sector, e.t.c.

?Then the structure of government expenditure, particularly the social sector investment, that is investment in education and health. This is happening already but we need to do a lot more.

And to prevent more people from falling into poverty is the responsibility of all tiers of government ? federal, state and local government have roles to play. If they don?t spend resources available to them in a way to alleviate poverty, then the poverty situation may get worse.

?Another point is to watch the population growth. There is a need to ensure proper sensitization of citizens to reduce their fertility rate without necessarily offending their religious or cultural sensibilities. We should find a way to deal with that.

?We need to address the issue of insecurity. The growing insecurity led may people into poverty because it has affected their cost of living. That?s why many of them have ended up in IDP camps. So, tackling insecurity is one key way of tackling the problem of poverty.

?And finally, is the issue of corruption. Corruption is depleting the resources that belong to the people. When we have situations where resources meant for the people, either at the local government level, state or federal level, are cornered by a few for their own selfish ends, then it contributes to poverty.

?Because the opportunity cost of the resources that have been stolen or diverted for personal goals means that a lot of key commitments of government to infrastructure, education or health will suffer.

?So, we should be looking at the drivers of poverty and looking at how we can address those drivers. If we can address them, then we will not end up in that pessimistic position as proposed by the World Bank.?

While making some recommendations on the ways out of poverty, ActionAid Nigeria (AAN) called on the Federal Government to ?Stop playing politics with people?s lives and fully strengthen and expand social protection, including universal cash transfers and food support for the most vulnerable.?

They also called for protection of smallholder farmers by tackling insecurity and ensuring access to markets, inputs, and tools to boost local food production.

They recommended further: ?Scrap all non-essential public spending particularly the outrageous allocations to government officials? lifestyles and channel funds to education, healthcare, and job creation; Stabilise the economy through transparent and people-centred fiscal and monetary policies that protect the purchasing power of citizens?.

Making his own recommendations, Adeyanju stated: ?To reverse the World Bank?s projected poverty increase by 2027, Nigeria must implement transformative, inclusive, and sustainable reforms.

?Diversify the Economy: Reduce oil dependence by investing in agriculture and technology, supporting agribusiness and job creation.

?Improve public spending transparency and engage citizens in budgeting to enhance governance; Invest in security and conflict prevention to stabilize regions and promote economic activities; Increase funding for education and healthcare to improve productivity and living standards; Support small and medium enterprises through financial incentives and incubation programs; Maintain tight monetary policies and subsidize essential goods to alleviate cost-of-living pressures.

?The World Bank?s forecast of rising poverty in Nigeria by 2027 is a clarion call for urgent action. By diversifying the economy, strengthening governance, expanding social protection, and investing in human capital and security, Nigeria can not only avert the projected poverty increase but also chart a path toward inclusive prosperity.?

CISLAC?s boss, Rafsanjani, outlined a battery of measures for averting the economic dangers facing Nigeria.

According to them, ?The government needs to be deliberate in terms of its trade and investment opportunity to get Nigerians to engage in both local and national as well as international businesses, so the Small-scale businesses need to be supported, improved so that people can be actually busy doing work, not relying only on the government job that is not even coming.

?So this means that the ease of doing business has to be properly implemented.

?The last issue that I want to also suggest is that agriculture has been a major preoccupation job for Nigerians in the past but because of the insecurity, the farmers are not able to go to their farms and produce food for consumption in the country and also be able to send it out and that also militates the poverty that we see around because when people cannot even farm, they cannot eat, they cannot really take care of their basic needs of just survival and shelter because of the fact that insecurity has made it impossible for them to work and then be able to produce food for the country.

In her comments, the Executive Director, Global Rights Nigeria, Abiodun Baiyewu, said, ?Nigeria?s poverty gap has in the past three years risen exponentially and currently half of the nation lives below poverty line.

?I don?t think that the government has invested enough to reduce the current poverty level or even more importantly to prevent further decline. But should they be serious about addressing them and pulling Nigerians out of poverty, here are some obvious actions to take; ?Strengthen Social Protection Programmes: Expanding and enhancing social safety nets can provide immediate relief to vulnerable populations. For instance, the government has secured a $2.25 billion loan from the World Bank, allocating $800 million for a cash transfer program aimed at assisting up to 70 million Nigerians affected by recent economic reforms.

?Our worry is that like previous cash transfers, corruption and mismanagement will whittle away the $800 million. ?However, more practical and sustainable steps to take would include investing in social safety nets like access to social security services for the unemployed, affordable housing, improving access to electricity, access to nutritious food particularly for children, ensuring the efficient and transparent implementation of such initiatives.

?Supporting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and improving access to finance can also stimulate job creation. Again, such investment should include greater infrastructural capacity.

?For example, the electricity sector in Nigeria as it currently stands is inimical to development and cannot leverage industrial growth.

?Predictability is also essential for businesses to thrive. Policies need to be stable and predictable.

Enhance Agricultural Productivity

Investing in agricultural infrastructure, providing access to modern farming techniques, and facilitating market access can increase productivity and incomes for a good chunk of the population. ?Lessons can be drawn from countries like Niger, where strong growth in the agricultural sector is projected to reduce extreme poverty from 45.3% in 2024 to 35.8% by 2027.

?Apart from lack of access to modern farming techniques, the bane of agriculture in Nigeria is insecurity and the lack of an efficient transportation system. Deal with those two and more people would invest in agriculture?. (Vanguard)

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