The recent wave of defections by prominent opposition figures including Delta State Governor, Sheriff Oborevwori?s dramatic switch from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC), is reshaping Nigeria?s political landscape.

But perhaps more significantly, it is creating a dangerous silence within the National Assembly where a robust opposition is critical to sustaining democracy.

What once seemed like a contest of ideas between the ruling and opposition parties is fast turning into a one-sided affair. With every high-profile defection, the voice of dissent is fading, and the legislature risks becoming a mere rubber stamp for executive actions.

Shrinking opposition

Following Governor Oborevwori?s move and the earlier defection of Senator Ned Nwoko from the PDP to the APC, the opposition, which has suffered steep numerical losses in the Senate, is set to go even lower. The APC now commands 65 seats, compared to the PDP?s 33. The Labour Party holds just five seats, while the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) have two and one seats respectively. The New Nigeria Peoples Party lost one senator to a recent defection to the APC. Two Senate seats remain vacant.

In Nigeria?s political history, precedent has shown that lawmakers follow the lead of their governors. They rely heavily on their endorsement to secure their party?s tickets to rerun elections for another term in the legislature. It therefore can be concluded that in the coming weeks and days, more senators and members of the House of Representatives will be filing up behind their principals as members of the ruling APC, thereby increasing its numbers and tightening its grip on the foremost democratic institution and decision-making body in the country.

These numbers matter. With a strengthened majority, the APC is now in a position to push through executive bills, constitutional amendments, and key legislative priorities with minimal resistance or scrutiny. The traditional checks and balances that a vibrant opposition provides are being eroded, potentially leaving critical national issues unquestioned. Already there have been incidents where proposed laws and amendments were passed based on party sentiments, only to be rescinded because they were not scrutinized properly and run through the proper legislative mill. Oversight functions have also dwindled, with more emphasis on covering up for the inadequacies of the government in power rather than exposing them for accountability.

Why are opposition politicians abandoning ship?

The reasons behind the defections are both strategic and survivalist. Opposition parties in the country are as weak as they come. Years of internal crises have left the PDP fractured, while its inability to form coalitions has further isolated it in a political climate heavily tilted toward incumbency. It also suffers from internal squabbles that have festered over time without any meaningful progress to address their root causes. As James Manager, Delta?s pioneer PDP chairman, put it: ?You cannot be in a boat that is already capsizing.?

With 2027 preparations already in full gear, politicians are making calculations, and without strong structures or figures to back them, opposition lawmakers and governors feel increasingly vulnerable, especially those eyeing reelection bids in 2027. For many, joining the ruling party seems the only viable path to political survival.

Sources reveal that the APC initially planned to woo all opposition governors but has shifted focus to those seeking second terms. The thinking is simple: without federal support, their chances of reelection are slim in the face of weakened opposition parties.

A parliament at risk

But away from political consolidation, the consequences of a silenced opposition in the National Assembly are profound.

First, the dominance of a single party threatens to compromise the independence of the legislature, though many will argue that it has been long lost in the present assembly. Executive bills and controversial policies could sail through with little scrutiny, weakening the legislature?s ability to serve as a check on presidential power.

Also, committee assignments which are often based on party strength are now likely to heavily favor the APC. Opposition members, once in charge of key oversight committees, may find themselves sidelined, further diminishing their influence over national affairs. Another issue is that the diversity of opinion is at risk. With fewer voices to question, challenge, or offer alternatives, policymaking could become one-dimensional, detached from the needs and grievances of many Nigerians.

Potential benefits to the legislature

While the growing dominance of the ruling party raises serious concerns, some observers argue that the defections could bring short-term legislative benefits. First, with fewer partisan roadblocks, the National Assembly may operate more efficiently, passing key reforms and urgent national policies without prolonged gridlock.

Supporters also argue that a stronger alignment between the executive and legislature could lead to better policy coordination, faster budget approvals, and improved governance delivery, especially in areas like infrastructure, security, and economic reform. Additionally, some believe that a unified legislature could stabilise the political environment, reduce legislative sabotage for partisan gain, and create room for lawmakers to focus more on national interests rather than party loyalty battles. However, critics caution that these benefits come at a heavy price: the weakening of dissent and the erosion of democratic checks on power.

What it means for 2027 and beyond

As the 2027 general elections approach, the defections signal more than just political realignment. They raise the specter of one-party dominance, a scenario where electoral competition becomes symbolic, and the will of the people is subdued under the weight of incumbency advantage.

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar captured the gravity of the moment when he said: ?The coming political battle is not APC versus PDP, or LP versus APC. It is Nigerians versus an administration that has plunged the nation into untold suffering.?

Yet, without a strong opposition, even the anger of the populace may struggle to find effective political expression. The defections tearing through the opposition are not merely about political survival; they are about the future of Nigerian democracy. A legislature without a strong opposition is a legislature that cannot adequately represent the people or safeguard their interests.

As more politicians gravitate toward the ruling party, the National Assembly risks becoming an echo chamber, where dissent is muted, and power goes unchecked. The real casualty of these defections may not be any single party, but democracy itself. (Daily Sun)

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